LEGISLATIVE STABILITY: MARTIAL LAW & MOBILIZATION EXTENDED (1104Z-1122Z, RBK-Ukraine/GSZSU, HIGH): The Verkhovna Rada has officially extended Martial Law and General Mobilization for an additional 90 days, effective until May 3, 2026. This provides the legal framework for Defense Minister Fedorov’s "high-tech attrition" mandate.
INTERNAL SECURITY: KINETIC ATTACK ON RECRUITMENT PERSONNEL (1102Z-1125Z, Tsaplienko/RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): A targeted shooting occurred in Rudne, near Lviv, against a Territorial Recruitment Center (TCC) minibus. National Police have initiated an "Intercept" plan. This represents a significant escalation of domestic resistance to mobilization.
DIPLOMATIC POSTURING: KUSHNER/WITKOFF MOSCOW VISIT (1100Z-1108Z, TASS/ASTRA, MEDIUM): FM Lavrov signaled openness to meeting US representatives Witkoff and Kushner. Bloomberg reports a visit to Moscow is planned for later this month. This suggests a parallel diplomatic track emerging outside traditional State Department channels.
TACTICAL AVIATION: MASS AIRSTRIKE CAMPAIGN (1116Z-1125Z, GSZSU/Air Force, HIGH): RF aviation conducted synchronized strikes across Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. KAB launches are currently active against targets in Donetsk Oblast (1125Z).
MANPOWER CRISIS: REITERATION OF AWOL/EVASION DATA (1101Z-1113Z, Operatsiya Z/Dva Mayora, HIGH): Multiple sources confirmed Fedorov’s report of 2 million citizens in the "wanted" database for mobilization and 200,000 personnel in SZCh (AWOL).
GLOBAL POSTURE: DANISH DEPLOYMENT TO GREENLAND (1119Z, TASS, MEDIUM): Denmark has deployed an advance party and military equipment to Greenland to prepare for a larger force arrival. (Dempster-Shafer Belief: 0.201 - HIGH).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is shifting toward a period of prolonged mobilization and internal security friction.
Battlefield Geometry: The front remains highly active across all axes, with the Russian General Staff intensifying pressure on the Lyman and Pokrovsk directions.
Internal Security: The shooting in Lviv indicates that the manpower crisis (2M evaders) is manifesting as kinetic internal threats to Ukrainian military administrative infrastructure.
Environmental Factors: Operations in Lviv and northern regions are occurring under heavy snow and freezing conditions, impacting mobility and logistics.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Course of Action: RF is maintaining a "broad front" pressure strategy, engaging UAF in nearly every sector (Kharkiv to Kherson) to prevent the shifting of reserves.
Tactical Adaptation: Increased use of tactical aviation (KABs) in the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia sectors suggests RF is expanding the geographic scope of its aerial bombardment beyond the immediate frontline.
Logistics/Rear: President Putin met with VP Khusnullin (1124Z) to discuss infrastructure, likely focusing on logistics and road safety in occupied territories.
Strategic Signals: Iran has reportedly placed IRGC missile forces on high readiness (1125Z, UNCONFIRMED/LOW CONFIDENCE). If true, this increases the risk of regional escalation impacting Western ISR focus.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
Force Posture: The 71st Separate Airborne Assault Brigade (DShV) continues high-intensity operations, recently honoring platoon leaders for successful assaults (1101Z). The "Khartia" Brigade is actively promoting its Anti-Aircraft/Artillery division, showcasing a shift toward multi-role drone/AD integration (1101Z).
Legislative Status: The 90-day extension of mobilization provides continuity for force generation, despite the -300bn UAH budget deficit reported by Fedorov.
Internal Response: The National Police have demonstrated rapid response capability to the Lviv shooting, but the incident highlights the vulnerability of rear-area TCC operations.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
Corruption Narratives: RF-aligned channels are heavily amplifying audio and video from the Yulia Tymoshenko corruption probe (1123Z), attempting to frame the Ukrainian government as inherently corrupt even during active mobilization.
Diplomatic Narratives: Lavrov is positioning Russia as "open to dialogue" while simultaneously attacking US reliability (1103Z). This is a classic hybrid maneuver to appeal to "realist" factions in the West while maintaining a hardline stance.
Domestic Tensions: Visuals of the Lviv shooting are being weaponized by Russian propaganda to signal a "collapse of domestic order" in Ukraine.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain high-intensity ground assaults in the Pokrovsk and Lyman sectors to capitalize on current UAF personnel shortages. Expect an uptick in KAB strikes on Dnipropetrovsk logistics hubs over the next 12h.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): The Lviv shooting triggers a series of copycat attacks on TCC personnel across Western Ukraine, forcing the UAF to divert National Guard units from the front to maintain domestic order.
Next 6-12h: High probability of a ballistic missile or heavy Shahed strike on Kyiv or energy nodes, following the ballistic threat warning at 1114Z.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
[CRITICAL] Determine if the Lviv shooting was a localized criminal act or a coordinated cell-based attack.
[HIGH] Corroborate the IRGC missile readiness report (1125Z). Verify if this is linked to the reported $3B Iranian missile purchase.
[MEDIUM] Monitor the flight path of Israeli "Bort No. 1" (1102Z) to determine if it indicates a surprise diplomatic summit related to the regional escalation.
[MEDIUM] Assess the impact of the aviation strikes in Malomykhaylivka (Dnipropetrovsk)—was this targeting rail logistics or storage?
