TRENCHING LEGAL CRISIS (0844Z–0858Z, RBC-Ukraine/TASS, HIGH): Yulia Tymoshenko has been officially served a "suspicion" (pidozra) by the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAP) for allegedly bribing MPs. She faces 5–10 years imprisonment.
AERIAL VECTOR SHIFT (0833Z–0852Z, Air Force ZSU/Vilkul, HIGH): RF loitering munitions have transitioned from Central Ukraine to the Southern vector, entering via the Black Sea toward Mykolaiv and conducting successful strikes (explosions confirmed) in Kryvyi Rih.
MISSILE THREAT: ZAPORIZHZHIA (0849Z, Air Force ZSU, HIGH): A high-priority missile alert is currently active for Zaporizhzhia city and oblast.
DIPLOMATIC PEACE INITIATIVE (0838Z–0844Z, Bloomberg/TASS/RBC-Ukraine, MEDIUM): Reports indicate Steven Witkoff and Jared Kushner intend to visit Moscow this month to meet with Putin regarding a potential peace deal.
KUPYANSK ARTILLERY INTENSIFICATION (0831Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Video evidence confirms 152mm 2S5 "Giatsint-S" (82nd SAP, 68th MRD) active in the Kupyansk district, targeting UAF positions under snowy conditions.
UNCONFIRMED TERRITORIAL GAIN (0848Z, Colonelcassad, LOW): Russian sources continue to claim Komarovka (Sumy Oblast) is under RF control. No UAF confirmation; remains marked as a contested/gray zone.
GRID RESILIENCE MEASURES (0852Z, Operativno ZSU, HIGH): Ivano-Frankivsk city administration has ordered preparations for a potential 24-hour total blackout, indicating systemic instability spreading to Western Ukraine.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield geometry is currently characterized by a sustained Russian effort to overstretch Ukrainian Air Defense (AD) by alternating strike vectors between the Kyiv/Northern axis and the Southern/Black Sea axis.
Weather: Sustained sub-zero temperatures and snow continue to dictate the pace of operations, favoring static artillery duels over high-mobility mechanized maneuvers in the Kupyansk and Donbas sectors.
Infrastructure: The energy crisis has reached a critical stage where even Western Ukrainian hubs (Ivano-Frankivsk) are bracing for total grid failure, likely due to load-balancing issues following the Kyiv grid collapse.
Maritime: Confirmed video evidence (0840Z) of a drone strike on a Russian "shadow fleet" tanker near Novorossiysk corroborates UAF's asymmetric maritime strategy to pressure RF economic logistics.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Tactical Maneuvers: RF is utilizing the "Old New Year" holiday period for psychological operations, signaling intent for increased aggression (0850Z). The presence of the 68th MRD's artillery in Kupyansk suggests a localized effort to disrupt UAF rotations.
Aviation/UAS: The entry of UAVs from the Black Sea toward Mykolaiv indicates a multi-directional attack profile designed to bypass AD clusters centered around inland cities.
Logistics: While the $3B Iranian missile purchase remains a critical gap, the shift in UAV launch points to the Black Sea suggests either naval-launched assets or a relocation of launch sites to the Crimean coast.
Diplomatic Hybrid Ops: The promotion of a "special EU negotiator" (0832Z) and the Kushner/Witkoff visit is being leveraged by RF media to create a "lame duck" narrative for the current Ukrainian administration during a domestic political crisis.
3. FRIENDLY ACTIVITY (UAF)
C2 and Governance: The Office of the President (OP) is undergoing a "reboot." Iryna Mudra's retention (0835Z) suggests a focus on legal/international reparations, while the pending "dealing with" other deputies by Budanov indicates a potential security-led purge or consolidation within the executive branch.
Internal Security: The serving of suspicion to Tymoshenko (0858Z) demonstrates the Ukrainian anti-corruption apparatus remains operational despite political deadlock, though it risks short-term domestic polarization.
Resource Management: Civil-military cooperation is focused on localized grid survival. The 24-hour blackout preparation in Ivano-Frankivsk suggests a shift toward "fortress city" utility management.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT / DISINFORMATION
The "Tymoshenko Narrative": RF channels (Two Majors, Colonelcassad) are aggressively framing the Tymoshenko case as a "signal from Washington" to Zelenskyy, attempting to portray the UAF leadership as puppets undergoing a controlled replacement (0831Z).
International Friction: Russian state media is highlighting the potential banning of propagandist Vladimir Solovyov in Kyrgyzstan (0855Z) and the acquittal of pro-Russian figures in Slovakia (0843Z) to signal a fractured international response to the war.
Diversionary News: The report of Domodedovo Airport being "for sale" on Avito (0854Z) is likely an informational distraction or a cyber-prank, intended to dilute serious reporting on rear-area vulnerabilities.
5. OUTLOOK (Next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue loitering munition pressure on Kryvyi Rih and Mykolaiv to exploit the lack of high-density AD in the South compared to Kyiv. Missile strikes on Zaporizhzhia energy or C2 nodes are imminent given current alerts.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the reported (though unconfirmed) foothold in Komarovka to facilitate a larger cross-border incursion into Sumy, timed with the peak of the Ivano-Frankivsk/Western grid instability to paralyze national-level response.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
[CRITICAL] Confirm impact of Shahed strikes in Kryvyi Rih. Assess BDA on industrial or logistical targets.
[HIGH] Verify the validity of the "Special EU Negotiator" report. Determine if this reflects a genuine policy shift or an RF-led information operation to sow distrust between Kyiv and Brussels.
[MEDIUM] Monitor the movement of the 20th Army in the Sumy/Komarovka sector. Search for SIGINT indicators of a battalion-sized command element moving forward.
[MEDIUM] Technical assessment of the "drone strike near Novorossiysk." Identify the specific UAS platform used to determine if UAF's maritime strike range has increased.
