FINAL OVERNIGHT AERIAL TALLY (0652Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): UAF confirms total RF launch volume was 113 UAVs and 3 ballistic missiles. Final interception data: 1 Iskander-M and 89 UAVs (~78% drone intercept rate).
EMERGENCY REGIME IN ROSTOV (0639Z-0647Z, TASS/Hayabusa, HIGH): RF authorities have declared a state of emergency (ChS) in a Rostov-on-Don microdistrict following UAF drone strikes. Local sources indicate a successful strike on the Empils plant (industrial coatings/chemicals), causing significant fire/damage.
KYIV AIR CLEARANCE (0632Z, KMVA, HIGH): Air raid sirens deactivated in Kyiv; however, tactical UAV activity continues in neighboring regions.
ST. PETERSBURG SECURITY INCIDENT (0651Z, FSB/TASS, LOW): FSB claims to have "thwarted a terrorist attack" against a defense industry (OPK) employee. [UNCONFIRMED/PROPAGANDA RISK]
RECRUITMENT URGENCY (0659Z, Kotsnews, MEDIUM): The RF 27th Guards Artillery Regiment (Southern Grouping) has issued an urgent call for drone specialists and drivers, suggesting attrition in technical roles.
HARTSYZK TRAFFIC DISRUPTION (0646Z, Mash on Donbas, MEDIUM): A major road accident has halted traffic on the Hartsyzk highway, potentially impacting local logistics in the occupied Donetsk sector.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Kyiv/Zhytomyr): While the main wave has passed, a lone UAV was detected over NE Zhytomyr heading north at 0633Z. This indicates persistent reconnaissance or "leakers" from the overnight wave.
Eastern Axis (Kharkiv/Donbas): Kharkiv Governor reports kinetic strikes on 11 settlements over the last 24h (0647Z). High-intensity shelling and KAB employment remain the primary threat. In the occupied rear, the Hartsyzk traffic jam creates a temporary bottleneck for "Vostok" group supply lines moving toward the Pokrovsk front.
Southern Axis (Rostov Strategic Rear): The strike on the Empils plant is significant; this facility produces chemical products and coatings used in industrial/military applications. The declaration of an "Emergency Zone" (0647Z) confirms the strike penetrated local air defenses and caused more than nominal damage.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Shift: RF is increasingly relying on "Gerbera" decoys and low-cost drones to map UAF AD positions. The persistence of UAVs over Zhytomyr suggests they are probing for gaps in the "western" corridors of the Kyiv AD bubble.
C2/Logistics: The urgent recruitment for the 27th Guards Artillery Regiment specifically for UAV specialists (0659Z) indicates that despite high ammo throughput (noted in previous reports), the RF is struggling with "pilot" attrition or is rapidly expanding its organic drone units to support the Pokrovsk offensive.
Internal Security: The FSB’s report of a "thwarted attack" in St. Petersburg likely serves as a domestic narrative to justify increased surveillance and divert attention from the Rostov strikes.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Strategic Strike Success: UAF long-range assets successfully transitioned from targeting oil depots to industrial chemical targets (Empils plant, Rostov), widening the economic/logistics impact on the RF rear.
Defensive Posture: Air Defense units achieved a respectable ~78% intercept rate against a massive 113-drone wave, though the impact points of the 2 unintercepted ballistic missiles remain an intelligence gap.
Information environment / disinformation
Negotiation Narratives: Pro-Russian channels (Operatsiya Z) are amplifying Politico reports regarding an EU "negotiator for Putin" (0645Z). This is likely intended to fracture Western unity and imply that European support for Ukraine is wavering in favor of a "Trump-led" settlement.
Domestic Scapegoating: RF state media continues to highlight medical negligence cases in Novokuznetsk (0632Z-0640Z). This is assessed as a distraction tactic to channel public anger away from infrastructure failures (heating/power) and toward "corrupt" local officials.
US Internal Friction: Sourcing of the Trump/Ford plant confrontation (0634Z) aims to signal political instability within Ukraine's primary security partner.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain high-intensity shelling on the Kharkiv-Sumy border while resetting drone launch platforms for a dusk wave. Continued reconnaissance UAVs will probe the Zhytomyr/Kyiv corridor.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the data gathered from the 113-drone wave to launch a precision strike on the Ministry of Energy's "sewage-compromised" C2 nodes while the grid remains under emergency load at -20°C.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[HIGH] Identify BDA for the 2 Iskander-M missiles not accounted for in the interception report.
[MEDIUM] Determine if the "Empils" plant strike has resulted in chemical leaks or broader industrial contamination in Rostov, which would increase the administrative burden on RF authorities.
[LOW] Monitor the 27th Guards Artillery Regiment’s recruitment success to gauge RF ability to sustain drone-integrated artillery operations in the Southern sector.
