KYIV AIR DEFENSE ENGAGEMENT (0540Z-0548Z, KMVA/RBC-UA, HIGH): Air Defense (AD) systems are currently active in Kyiv following a multi-vector UAV approach from the north (Vyshhorod district).
KRYVYI RIH INFRASTRUCTURE IMPACT (0532Z, Operativno ZSU, HIGH): Overnight "Shahed" strikes resulted in 45,000 subscribers losing power and 700 homes losing heat. This clarifies the scale of the damage despite earlier reports of partial restoration.
SOUTHERN AXIS KINETIC ACTIVITY (0530Z, Voin DV, MEDIUM): Elements of the RF 35th Army (Vostok Group) are conducting intensified drone operations against UAF personnel in the Polohy direction.
ROSTOV BDA (0533Z, ASTRA, HIGH): Local authorities confirm one fatality in the Rostov region following the UAF's overnight deep-strike drone wave.
DIPLOMATIC SIGNALING (0536Z, TASS, LOW): Reports suggest the EU may appoint a special representative for negotiations with Russia. [UNCONFIRMED] This is currently viewed as a potential RF-driven narrative to test Western unity.
STARLINK/IRAN DEVELOPMENT (0530Z, RBC-UA/Bloomberg, MEDIUM): Reports of Elon Musk launching free Starlink for Iran may impact the electronic warfare/comms landscape if technology is diverted or adapted by regional RF allies.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Kyiv/Chernihiv): The threat has transitioned from a transit phase to a kinetic engagement phase. UAVs entered via Vyshhorod (0531Z) and are currently being engaged over the capital. The focus on Kyiv during extreme cold (-20°C) suggests an intent to trigger further grid failures.
Eastern Axis (Donbas/Pokrovsk): Baseline mechanized preparations in Shakhtarskyi continue. RF sources claim a general offensive "on all sections of the front" (0546Z), though this is assessed as psychological warfare to mask the specific mechanized surge toward Pokrovsk.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Polohy): RF 35th Army has increased tactical drone use (FPV/Droppers) near Polohy (0530Z). This likely serves as a fixing operation to prevent UAF reserves from shifting north toward the Pokrovsk-Dnipropetrovsk corridor.
Rear/Strategic: The situation in Kryvyi Rih remains critical. While "controlled" (0537Z), the loss of heat for 700 buildings in sub-zero temperatures creates a humanitarian and logistical burden on the regional military administration.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Tactics: RF is employing a "north-south pincer" of UAV pressure. While one group targets the logistics hub of Pavlohrad (previous report), a second group is now pressuring Kyiv's AD umbrella. This forces UAF to commit limited AD assets to both the front and the capital simultaneously.
Morale/Posturing: RF milbloggers are emphasizing the "difficulty of the trenches" in the freeze (0546Z), attempting to frame current high-attrition assaults as heroic endurance to prepare the domestic audience for sustained casualties.
External Support: Reported US requests for intelligence on Iranian targets (0553Z) suggest a widening of the conflict's intelligence aperture, which may divert Western ISR assets away from the Ukrainian theater.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Active Defense: Kyiv AD units are successfully tracking and engaging targets. The use of electronic warfare (EW) is suspected in the Vyshhorod corridor to disrupt UAV navigation.
Strategic Reach: The confirmed fatality in Rostov (0533Z) validates that UAF deep-strike munitions are successfully bypassing RF "Pantsir/S-400" layers in the strategic rear, impacting the RF's sense of domestic security.
Infrastructure Resilience: Oleksandr Vilkul reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is "controlled" (0537Z), implying emergency backup protocols are active despite the massive scale of outages (45k+ subscribers).
Information environment (Cognitive domain)
Negotiation Narratives: The TASS report on an EU "Special Representative" (0536Z) aims to create a perception of "Ukraine fatigue" and a shift toward a "frozen conflict" model.
Distraction Operations: High-volume reporting on non-theater events (Thailand crane collapse 0543Z, Kaluga food tampering 0531Z) by RF state media suggests a deliberate attempt to dilute coverage of the Rostov BDA and frontline losses.
U.S. Instability: RF channels (Basurin 0552Z) are amplifying statements by Donald Trump regarding Greenland and Denmark to portray the U.S. as a volatile and unreliable ally.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue the UAV wave over Kyiv to identify AD radar positions. Once AD is depleted or repositioned, a secondary wave of cruise missiles or ballistics is likely within the next 12 hours.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF capitalizes on the "all fronts offensive" narrative by launching a localized but high-intensity mechanized breakthrough in the Polohy sector to sever the supply line between Zaporizhzhia and the eastern front.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm if the "special representative" rumor (0536Z) has any basis in EU Council communications or if it is a pure RF-origin fabrication.
[HIGH] Identify if the 35th Army's activity in Polohy (0530Z) includes armored vehicle movements or is limited to UAV/Infantry harassment.
[MEDIUM] Determine if the "free Starlink for Iran" (0530Z) has resulted in any changes to Starlink terminal geofencing in occupied Ukrainian territories.
