KAB LAUNCHES ON DONETSK (0252Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Confirmed launches of guided aerial bombs (KAB) targeting the Donetsk region. This indicates an escalation from UAV/artillery to heavy tactical aviation strikes.
DEEP STRIKE ON NEVINNOMYSSK (0251Z, TASS, MEDIUM): UAF loitering munitions are reportedly targeting an industrial zone in Nevinnomyssk, Stavropol Krai. RF air defenses are active. This represents a significant southern expansion of the UAF deep strike radius.
CASUALTIES IN ROSTOV (0248Z, TASS, HIGH): RF authorities confirm four civilians wounded in Rostov-on-Don and the Myasnikovsky district following the 0101Z air attack.
LVIV INFRASTRUCTURE ANOMALY (0232Z, TASS, UNCONFIRMED/LOW): RF state media reports a drop in gas pressure for heating and domestic use in Lviv. This has not been corroborated by Ukrainian official sources.
RF DOMESTIC CRISIS MANAGEMENT (0243Z, TASS, MEDIUM): RF officials claim full medical support has been redirected to Hospital No. 2 in Novokuznetsk following the infant death scandal at Maternity Hospital No. 1.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Lozova): (Baseline: 0214Z/0218Z) Multi-vector UAV threat remains active. No kinetic impact confirmed yet, but pincer movement continues to threaten the rail/logistics hub at Lozova.
Eastern Axis (Donetsk/Pokrovsk): The 0252Z KAB launch represents a high-intensity threat to frontline fortifications and civilian hubs. This likely supports the mechanized rotations and assault preparations in the Shakhtarskyi district identified in the daily report.
Western Sector (Lviv): If the 0232Z report of gas pressure drop is accurate, it indicates either collateral damage from previous strikes on gas transit infrastructure, a cyber-operation against distribution networks, or a precursor to a kinetic strike on the western energy hub.
RF Strategic Rear (Stavropol/Rostov): UAF deep strike operations are successfully penetrating RF air defenses beyond the immediate border regions. The targeting of Nevinnomyssk suggests a focus on the chemical/fertilizer or energy industries prevalent in that industrial zone.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Aviation: RF has integrated KAB strikes into the current offensive cycle in Donetsk. These munitions are difficult to intercept and are being used to degrade UAF defensive geometry ahead of the anticipated Pokrovsk assault.
Hybrid Operations (Infrastructure): The RF reporting of gas issues in Lviv (0232Z) suggests a "reflexive control" tactic—amplifying or potentially inducing infrastructure failures to lower civilian morale during the current -20°C freeze.
Logistics Status: (Context: GRAU Arsenal surge) The KAB launches confirm that the logistical throughput increase identified via SAR imagery is now manifesting as kinetic output on the FEBA (Forward Edge of the Battle Area).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Deep Strike Maneuvers: UAF continues to demonstrate reach into the RF rear (Rostov and Stavropol). The Nevinnomyssk strike (0251Z) forces the RF to redistribute AD assets away from the frontline to protect critical industrial infrastructure in the south.
Air Defense: UAF Air Force continues active tracking of loitering munitions (Shahed-type) and tactical aviation (KAB).
Information environment / disinformation
Lviv Gas Report: (DS Belief: 0.04) Treat the TASS report on Lviv as a LOW CONFIDENCE indicator. It may be part of a coordinated disinformation campaign to suggest Ukrainian infrastructure collapse or to mask a specific Russian sabotage operation.
Novokuznetsk Narrative Control: RF media is attempting to "wall off" the healthcare crisis by reporting a seamless transition to a secondary facility. This aims to suppress the domestic unrest potential identified in the 0210Z update.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF tactical aviation will conduct additional KAB sorties across the Donetsk/Pokrovsk axis to soften UAF lines. Simultaneously, the UAV groups currently transiting toward Kharkiv and Lozova will reach their terminal phase.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the reported gas pressure anomalies in Lviv as a psychological anchor for a large-scale ballistic strike on the Western Ukrainian gas transit and storage system (Stryi/Lviv region) to trigger a total heating collapse.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Lviv Gas Status: Verify gas pressure levels through internal Ministry of Energy/Naftogaz channels. Determine if anomalies are due to cold-weather demand, cyber-sabotage, or undetected kinetic damage.
[HIGH] Nevinnomyssk BDA: Identify the specific target in the Nevinnomyssk industrial zone. If a chemical plant was hit, monitor for hazardous material (HAZMAT) plumes.
[MEDIUM] KAB Launch Platforms: Determine the takeoff location of the tactical aviation assets (likely Millerovo or Primorsko-Akhtarsk) to coordinate counter-strikes on RF airfields.
