OFFENSIVE ACTION IN KHARKIV SECTOR (2332Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH): Russian Federation (RF) forces have launched localized offensive operations in the Burluksky (Vovchansk) sector, specifically targeting terrain southwest of Vovchansk along the banks of the Vovcha River.
CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE FAILURE IN KRYVYI RIH (2359Z, Vilkul, HIGH): Emergency power outages have affected over 45,000 subscribers. Simultaneously, over 700 buildings and multiple boiler houses have lost heat, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in -20°C conditions.
DEEP STRIKE ON ROSTOV (2357Z, Tsaplienko, MEDIUM): Unconfirmed reports and video evidence indicate a successful kinetic strike ("arrival") on a target in Rostov (likely Rostov-on-Don), Russia. This follows earlier reported strikes on Yelets and Taganrog.
BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT (2343Z, UAF AF, HIGH): UAF Air Force has issued a high-priority warning regarding the imminent use of ballistic weaponry from the southeast, likely targeting Zaporizhzhia or Dnipro.
MULTI-VECTOR UAV PENETRATION (2349Z-2357Z, UAF AF, HIGH): New Shahed-type UAV groups have entered Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (targeting Synelnykove/Slavhorod) and Zhytomyr Oblast (targeting Narodychi). The Zhytomyr vector from the southeast suggests complex flight path routing to bypass established AD corridors.
HYBRID LEGAL VICTORY IN SLOVAKIA (2354Z, TASS, MEDIUM): A Slovak court acquitted ex-Justice Minister Štefan Harabin for supporting the RF invasion. This will likely be exploited by RF information operations to signal eroding European judicial resolve.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Vovchansk/Burluksky): RF has shifted from positional defense to active maneuvers southwest of Vovchansk. This appears to be a fixing operation intended to prevent UAF reinforcements from moving south toward Pokrovsk.
Eastern Axis (Pokrovsk): Baseline reports from 1434Z indicate RF mechanized units are staged for an assault on the Shakhtarskyi district. Current UAV activity in Dnipropetrovsk (Synelnykove) likely serves as interdiction for the logistical tail supporting the Pokrovsk defense.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk): The threat of ballistic strikes from the SE, combined with UAVs tracking toward Synelnykove, indicates a coordinated effort to suppress rear-area logistics and C2 in the Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk hub.
Strategic Rear (Kryvyi Rih/Zhytomyr): The energy collapse in Kryvyi Rih is reaching critical mass. The appearance of UAVs in Zhytomyr (Narodychi) indicates RF is expanding the geography of its "rolling alert" tactic to the northwestern rear.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Course of Action (COA): RF is currently executing a multi-domain suppression campaign. By combining localized ground offensives (Vovchansk), tactical ballistic threats (SE vector), and strategic UAV harassment (Zhytomyr), the RF aims to paralyze UAF decision-making while infrastructure failures (Kryvyi Rih) degrade civilian morale.
Tactical Shift: The move southwest of Vovchansk suggests an attempt to establish a bridgehead or fire-control over local UAF supply lines (GLOCs) leading into the Kharkiv salient.
Logistics: The reported $3B Iranian pipeline (from daily report) is likely the source of the sustained UAV pressure across multiple oblasts.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Force Posture: UAF Air Defense is heavily engaged across four oblasts (Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, Zaporizhzhia). Mobile fire groups are likely overstretched due to the multi-vector nature of the UAV arrivals.
Deep Strike Capability: The strike on Rostov (2357Z) demonstrates that despite domestic infrastructure pressure, UAF retains the capability to conduct retaliatory strikes against RF strategic hubs, likely targeting C2 or fuel/energy nodes.
Information environment / disinformation
RF Domestic Narrative: TASS is highlighting the acquittal of Štefan Harabin to reinforce the narrative that international law and Western political unity are shifting in Moscow’s favor.
Economic Deflection: Reports of rising living costs in RF regions (2336Z) suggest internal economic pressure, which the RF state media is likely counterbalancing with news of military advances and Western "legal victories."
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: High-intensity ballistic and UAV strikes targeting energy infrastructure in Central Ukraine to capitalize on the Kryvyi Rih failure. Ground assault in the Shakhtarskyi district (Pokrovsk) is imminent.
MDCOA: A massive, synchronized ballistic strike on Kyiv’s "Government Quarter" or Ministry of Energy nodes, exploiting the current parliamentary leadership vacuum and the grid's "emergency" status.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Immediate BDA for the strike in Rostov. Identify if the target was the Southern Military District HQ or energy infrastructure.
[HIGH] Verify the specific units involved in the RF offensive southwest of Vovchansk. Determine if these are fresh reserves or rotated elements from the 20th Army.
[HIGH] Assess the operational status of the 422nd Separate Unmanned Systems Battalion expansion. Is the unit ready to deploy FPV teams to counter the Vovchansk maneuver?
[MEDIUM] Monitor Lipetsk (Igor Artamonov warning) for secondary UAF strikes on the 260th Rocket Artillery Base or GRAU arsenals.
