CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE HIT (2201Z, O. Vilkul/RBC-UA, HIGH): Confirmed "Shahed" UAV/missile impact on a critical infrastructure object in Kryvyi Rih. Visuals confirm large-scale fires and "multiple arrivals" (Colonelcassad, 2214Z).
BALLISTIC THREAT TO KYIV (2206Z-2226Z, UAF AF/KMVA, HIGH): A 20-minute ballistic missile alert was issued for Kyiv and northern regions. No impacts were reported prior to the "all-clear" (2226Z), suggesting either successful interception, failure, or a psychological feint.
NEW UAV VECTORS (2209Z-2228Z, UAF AF, HIGH): Multiple Shahed groups detected:
Entering from the SE toward Snihurivka (Mykolaiv).
Entering Nikopol district (Dnipropetrovsk) from the south.
New groups in the Black Sea on a northern course (likely targeting Odesa/Mykolaiv).
CROSS-BORDER KINETIC ACTIVITY (2204Z, AV Bogomaz, MEDIUM): Russian authorities declared a "missile danger" in Bryansk Oblast. This likely indicates UAF counter-battery or deep-strike operations targeting RF launch sites.
DIPLOMATIC MANEUVERING (2206Z, Tsaplienko/FT, MEDIUM): G7 leaders are reportedly preparing to lobby Donald Trump during the Davos summit to maintain security guarantees for Ukraine.
Operational picture (by sector)
Strategic Rear (Dnipropetrovsk/Kryvyi Rih): This sector is currently the primary focus of RF kinetic pressure. The strike at 2201Z indicates a concentrated effort to degrade logistical or energy nodes in Kryvyi Rih. Pro-Russian sources (NgP RaZVedka) are using sarcastic "greenhouse lighting" narratives to mock the scale of the resulting fires.
Northern Axis (Kyiv/Bryansk): The ballistic threat originating from the north (2206Z) confirms the persistence of RF launch platforms in the border regions. The concurrent alert in Bryansk suggests a high-tempo exchange of long-range fires.
Southern Axis (Mykolaiv/Black Sea): RF is utilizing the Black Sea as a transit corridor for UAVs to bypass frontline AD and strike coastal or inland hubs (Snihurivka).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptation: RF is using a high-low mix of loitering munitions (Shaheds) and ballistic missiles to saturate AD. The timing of the Kyiv ballistic alert (immediately following the Kryvyi Rih strike) suggests a coordinated attempt to exploit AD resource reallocation.
Infrastructure Targeting: Continued focus on the energy system, specifically targeting Dnipropetrovsk and Kyiv oblasts. RF milbloggers (Colonelcassad) are actively amplifying images of Kyiv’s grid instability to frame the Ukrainian government as incapable of maintaining basic services (2204Z).
Information Operations: RF state media (TASS) has launched a coordinated messaging campaign regarding Donbas casualties since 2014 (7.1k cited by Bastrykin) to justify ongoing aggression to domestic audiences (2203Z).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Operations: UAF AF remains highly active, tracking multiple UAV vectors simultaneously across the South and East.
Counter-Strike Capability: The missile alert in Bryansk suggests that UAF "long arm" capabilities (likely Neptune, Storm Shadow, or domestic drones) are actively targeting RF launch assets or depots to suppress the ballistic threat to Kyiv.
Internal Oversight: Despite the ministerial vacuum, anti-corruption operations (NABU raids on Tymoshenko) continue, though they are currently being weaponized by RF propaganda to suggest "state collapse."
Information environment / disinformation
NABU Raid Exploitation: Pro-Russian channels (Alex Parker, Colonelcassad) are heavily mocking the "sudden" discovery of corruption in the Batkivshchyna party (2204Z), aiming to undermine the legitimacy of the Ukrainian parliament during the -20°C energy crisis.
US Strategic Distraction: RF media is fixated on Trump’s remarks regarding Iran (2213Z, 2219Z), framing US foreign policy as pivoting exclusively toward the Middle East to demoralize the Ukrainian public.
Crypto-Narratives: TASS reporting on Bitcoin hitting $95k (2214Z) is likely an attempt to project economic normalcy or divert attention from military setbacks.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued Shahed incursions via the Black Sea and Mykolaiv. Expect local emergency shutdowns in Kryvyi Rih as BDA/repairs begin on the hit infrastructure.
MDCOA: A renewed ballistic/cruise missile wave targeting Kyiv or the Dnipro river crossings during the pre-dawn hours to exploit the exhaustion of AD crews from the current multi-vector UAV attacks.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] BDA for the Kryvyi Rih facility. Determine if the "multiple arrivals" hit a thermal power plant (TPP) or a rail distribution hub.
[HIGH] Origin and type of the ballistic threat to Kyiv (2206Z). Identify if launch platforms were Iskander-M or S-300/400 in "surface-to-surface" mode.
[MEDIUM] Confirmation of UAF activity in Bryansk. Identify the targets involved in the 2204Z alert to assess the effectiveness of UAF counter-strike operations.
