UAV THREAT ESCALATION (2123Z, UAF AF, HIGH): Shahed-type loitering munitions detected over northern Pavlohrad (Dnipropetrovsk region), continuing a W/SW course. This follows the earlier 2059Z track through Izyum, indicating a coordinated strike deep into central/western Ukraine.
POKROVSK DEFENSIVE SUCCESS (2114Z, Operativno ZSU, HIGH): The 425th Separate Assault Battalion "Skelya" has successfully engaged and neutralized Russian assault groups in the Pokrovsk sector. Video evidence confirms high-intensity close-quarters engagement and the efficacy of tactical-level defensive operations.
OCCUPIED DONETSK GRID FAILURE (2116Z, Mash na Donbasse, MEDIUM): Reports of a widespread blackout in occupied Donetsk. This follows earlier UAF "Kairos" Battalion drone strikes on occupation energy grids (1018Z).
POLITICAL SCANDAL CORROBORATION (2105Z, Sternenko, HIGH): Influencer/activist sources have explicitly linked the ongoing NABU/SAP anti-corruption raids to Yulia Tymoshenko (Batkivshchyna faction leader), confirming the severity of the political crisis during the current ministerial vacuum.
IRAN-US TENSION ESCALATION (2107Z-2128Z, TASS/Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Statements attributed to Donald Trump calling for US/allied citizens to evacuate Iran and threatening "harsh measures" regarding Iranian domestic policy. Iranian intelligence claims the seizure of "illegal Starlink devices" (2126Z).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Izyum): RF "ZALA Lancet" drone crews are actively targeting UAF logistics and supply vehicles (2101Z). This indicates a shift from fixed-target KAB strikes to mobile ISR-strike loops (Lusty-style tactics) aimed at interdicting the "Drone Line" supply chain.
Eastern Axis (Donetsk/Pokrovsk): Tactical success by the 425th "Skelya" Battalion demonstrates that despite the RF mechanized push, UAF assault units maintain high combat readiness. However, the blackout in Donetsk (2116Z) suggests reciprocal damage to infrastructure, which may impact RF logistics throughput from the city to the Pokrovsk front.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia): Air raid alert cleared at 2103Z. No kinetic impacts reported in the last 60 minutes.
Rear/Strategic (Dnipropetrovsk/Pavlohrad): The Pavlohrad vector for incoming UAVs (2123Z) suggests potential targets include the Pavlohrad Chemical Plant or key railway junctions connecting the Eastern and Southern fronts.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Course of Action: RF is utilizing Lancet loitering munitions for tactical interdiction in Kharkiv (2101Z) while using Shaheds for operational-depth strikes. The focus is on disrupting UAF logistics that sustain the FPV/Drone Line operations.
Economic/Logistical Status: Pro-RF sources are amplifying claims of "record-high" international reserves ($763.9B) to project resilience against Western sanctions (2124Z).
C2/Adaptation: RF forces continue to leverage Iranian-aligned narratives, likely to reinforce the strategic partnership as US-Iran tensions rise, potentially securing further missile/UAV shipments.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Tactical Performance: High-quality footage from the "Skelya" Battalion (2114Z) serves as both a tactical record and a morale-boosting information asset, countering the "Kyiv collapse" narrative.
Internal Security: The formalizing of the corruption case against a major parliamentary faction leader (Tymoshenko) indicates that despite the war, anti-corruption institutions (NABU/SAP) remain functional, though the short-term political instability is high.
Information environment / disinformation
"Old New Year" IO: Pro-RU channels (Alex Parker Returns) are using holiday-themed messaging to soften their hardline political content, likely aiming at domestic Russian audience cohesion (2115Z).
Iran Pivot: Russian state media is heavily prioritizing Trump’s Iran statements (2107Z, 2128Z) to signal that US focus is shifting away from the Ukrainian theater, hoping to induce a sense of abandonment in Ukrainian social media circles.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): The Shahed wave currently over Pavlohrad will likely impact targets in the Dnipropetrovsk or Poltava regions within the next 2-3 hours. RF will continue Lancet-driven interdiction in Kharkiv.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): The combination of the Donetsk blackout and the UAF AF tracking of Shaheds suggests a potential retaliatory RF missile strike on the Dnipro/Pavlohrad energy nodes to achieve "grid parity" with the damage in Donetsk, further straining the national energy system.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[HIGH] Verify the cause of the Donetsk blackout (2116Z). Determine if this was a UAF kinetic strike, sabotage, or technical failure due to extreme weather (-20°C).
[MEDIUM] Assess the impact of the "ZALA Lancet" campaign in Kharkiv on UAF frontline logistics (2101Z). Are delivery vehicles being successfully replaced?
[CRITICAL] Monitor the Verkhovna Rada for any emergency sessions following the NABU raids on Batkivshchyna. Identification of an Acting Energy Minister is essential for grid management over the next 12 hours.
