Situation Update (2029Z 13 JAN 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- MASSIVE PRECISION STRIKE (2007Z, Zelenskyy, HIGH): President Zelenskyy confirmed a major RF kinetic wave involving 18 ballistic missiles, plus cruise missiles and loitering munitions. While 64 "Shaheds" were intercepted, multiple "hits" were acknowledged on critical infrastructure.
- KYIV GRID COLLAPSE (2010Z, Tsaplienko/DTEK, HIGH): DTEK confirmed "very serious damage" to energy infrastructure following today's strikes. Emergency blackouts are now indefinite across Kyiv, compounding existing sewage and heating failures.
- SVYATOGORSK PINCHERS (2021Z, RVvoenkor, LOW): Pro-Russian sources claim a "powerful breakthrough" in the Lyman direction, alleging RF forces have entered the outskirts of Svyatogorsk and are attempting an envelopment. This is UNCONFIRMED by UAF sources.
- IRAN EVACUATION ORDERS (2011Z-2021Z, Various, HIGH): France, UK, Germany, Canada, Japan, and several other nations have issued "leave immediately" orders for their citizens in Iran. This follows reports of IRGC combat readiness.
- TACTICAL LOGISTICS ADAPTATION (2001Z, Operativno ZSU, MEDIUM): Footage confirms RF personnel are resorting to manual portage of fuel and ammunition (carrying supplies on their backs) to avoid detection by UAF FPV drones.
- DIPLOMATIC TENSIONS (2016Z, ASTRA, HIGH): Armenia issued an official note of protest to Russia following state propagandist Vladimir Solovyov’s calls for "Special Military Operations" in Armenia and Central Asia.
Operational picture (by sector)
- Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Zolochiv): RF reconnaissance UAVs detected passing Zolochiv heading south (2017Z) and approaching Kharkiv from the NW (2021Z). These are likely identifying BDA or secondary targets following the day's ballistic strikes.
- Eastern Axis (Donetsk/Lyman):
- Kramatorsk: Heavy KAB (guided bomb) strikes reported, with munitions tracking from the SE (2004Z).
- Svyatogorsk: RU sources claim significant gains (2021Z). If verified, this represents a major threat to the northern flank of the Lyman defense group.
- Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk):
- UAV groups are currently transiting from Mykolaiv and Kherson towards the Kryvyi Rih district (2020Z).
- Reconnaissance UAVs are active over NE Zaporizhzhia (Novomykolaivka) heading west (2002Z).
- Rear/Strategic: UAF drone activity continues over Southern Russia, with RU MoD claiming 9 interceptions in the last 3 hours (2014Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
- Course of Action - Tactical: The RF is maintaining a high-intensity "KAB and Ballistic" cycle to suppress UAF logistics in Kramatorsk and Kharkiv while attempting a breakthrough at Svyatogorsk. The use of manual logistics (2001Z) suggests FPV "kill zones" are successfully denying vehicle-based resupply near the FLOT (Forward Line of Own Troops).
- Logistics and Sustainment: While RF GRAU arsenals show high throughput (per previous daily report), tactical distribution remains vulnerable to UAF drone interdiction, forcing high-risk manual labor for fuel/ammo delivery.
- Command and Control: RF propaganda (Solovyov) is increasingly aggressive toward CSTO allies, suggesting a shift toward "Greater Russian" imperial narratives to sustain domestic mobilization, despite diplomatic blowback in Armenia.
Friendly activity (UAF)
- Air Defense: Successfully intercepted 64 Shaheds (2007Z), but ballistic interception remains a critical gap given the "hits" reported by the Presidency.
- Tactical Success: UAF drone units continue to force extreme behavioral changes in RU logistics, effectively grounding soft-skinned supply vehicles in several sectors.
- Fundraising: Targeted campaigns (Sternenko, 2001Z) for "interception envelopes" are reaching final stages, likely focusing on FPV or EW upgrades to counter the Orlan-Artillery loop.
Information environment / disinformation
- Internal Dissent (UKR): MP Heorhiy Mazurashu's public criticism of "busification" (forced mobilization) is being amplified (2011Z). This narrative risks feeding domestic unrest, especially when coupled with the Kyiv energy crisis.
- Supply Chain Narratives: RF sources (Colonelcassad, 1959Z) are actively documenting Kyiv's market stress to project an image of impending social collapse.
- Propaganda: The 155th Naval Infantry Brigade is being highlighted in RU media via "Direct Line" callbacks to project stability and elite status (2002Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue loitering munition waves through the night, specifically targeting the Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia energy nodes to prevent grid stabilization.
- Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A confirmed breakthrough at Svyatogorsk, combined with the total failure of the Kyiv sewage/power system, could trigger a localized withdrawal from the Lyman sector and a spike in urban civil unrest in the capital.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [CRITICAL] Verify RU claims of a breakthrough in Svyatogorsk (2021Z). Need IMINT or ground confirmation of FLOT movement.
- [HIGH] Assess the impact of the 18 ballistic missile strikes on Western-supplied AD systems. Identify specific "hits" mentioned by Zelenskyy.
- [MEDIUM] Monitor for retaliatory RF maritime actions following the Marinera seizure, specifically in the Western Black Sea.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment has significantly deteriorated in the last 4 hours due to a massive ballistic surge against Ukrainian infrastructure. Kyiv is in a state of energy and logistical emergency. Concurrently, a new tactical threat is emerging in the Svyatogorsk sector (Lyman direction), which may indicate an attempt to bypass the Pokrovsk "meat-grinder" in favor of a flanking maneuver.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
RF forces are demonstrating high coordination between ballistic strikes and tactical ground pushes. The reliance on KABs in the Kramatorsk sector is designed to isolate the battlefield. Tactically, the RF's use of "backpack logistics" is a desperate but functional adaptation to UAF drone supremacy, allowing them to sustain high-intensity positions without vehicle exposure.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Ukrainian forces are maintaining high interception rates for loitering munitions but remain vulnerable to ballistic strikes. The political fallout from mobilization methods ("busification") and the infrastructure collapse in Kyiv are emerging as "soft" vulnerabilities that the enemy is actively exploiting via Information Operations (IO).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
RF IO is successfully pivoting from military victory narratives to "Ukrainian state failure" narratives, focusing on the Kyiv energy/sewage crisis and political friction in the Rada. The Armenian protest note indicates a fracturing of the Russian-led security architecture (CSTO), which UAF should exploit via strategic communications.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
- MLCOA: Continued attrition and "darkness" strategy targeting the remaining operational substations in Central Ukraine.
- MDCOA: RF forces seize Svyatogorsk, threatening the entire Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration from the North, while Kyiv experiences a total evacuation of government quarters due to lack of heating/sewage.
//END OF REPORT//
