FRIENDLY C2 / DEFENSE INITIATIVE (1928Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): President Zelenskyy convened a "Stavka" (Supreme Command) meeting specifically focused on Air Defense (AD) and the development of "interceptor drones." This indicates a strategic shift toward utilizing UAVs to counter the ongoing RF loitering munition threat.
NEW TACTICAL THREAT: RIVERINE USVs (1902Z, MoD Russia, HIGH): RF "Dnepr" Group of Forces has deployed uncrewed surface vehicles (USVs) in the Dnepr River delta (Kherson). Video evidence confirms kinetic strikes against UAF watercraft, marking a new phase of uncrewed maritime warfare in riverine environments.
ZAPORIZHZHIA SECTOR EVOLUTION (1907Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): Official UAF spokesman Voloshin characterizes Huliaipole as a "large grey zone" with intense house-to-house fighting. This confirms the sector is active and contested, rather than a static line of contact.
REGIONAL AERIAL THREAT (1905Z-1924Z, Air Force UAF, HIGH): Multiple Shahed UAVs are transiting Chernihiv Oblast toward Northern Kyiv Oblast. Simultaneously, RF tactical aviation has launched a new wave of KABs (guided bombs) against Kharkiv from the north.
IRANIAN ESCALATION (1905Z, Alex Parker/Dva Mayora, MEDIUM): The IRGC has reportedly placed missile forces on "full combat readiness" following calls from the US for allies to evacuate Iran. US Special Envoy Witkoff’s meeting with exiled Prince Reza Pahlavi is confirmed via Axios (1907Z), signaling imminent political/military shifts in this key RF partner state.
UNCONFIRMED AFU INTERNAL INCIDENT (1907Z, Operatsiya Z, LOW): RF-aligned sources are circulating reports of a 17-year-old UAF cadet's suicide due to hazing. ASSESSMENT: Likely a coordinated PSYOP to degrade morale and recruitment during the current political vacuum in Kyiv.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Chernihiv): Heavy aerial pressure continues. KABs are being used as the primary tool for tactical interdiction in Kharkiv, while loitering munitions (Shaheds) are being vectored through Chernihiv to penetrate Kyiv’s AD envelope from the north.
Eastern Axis (Pokrovsk): The "Skelya" Regiment is actively clearing the industrial zone of Pokrovsk using FPV drones (1908Z). This confirms that despite the RF mechanized push reported in the daily summary, UAF forces maintain high-frequency drone denial capabilities in urban/industrial terrain.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Huliaipole): Huliaipole has degraded into a high-intensity grey zone. RF reconnaissance UAVs are persistently active southwest of Zaporizhzhia city, suggesting BDA for upcoming strikes or preparation for a southern flanking maneuver.
Kherson/Dnepr Delta: Introduction of RF USVs introduces a significant threat to UAF logistics and troop rotations across the river.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action - Tactical: RF is diversifying its uncrewed portfolio. The transition from fiber-optic FPVs in Kharkiv (reported 1841Z) to riverine USVs in Kherson (1902Z) demonstrates a rapid deployment of EW-resistant or specialized unmanned platforms across all domains.
Logistics/Allies: The IRGC "Full Combat Readiness" (1905Z) likely accelerates the RF's timeline to secure Iranian-made munitions before potential domestic disruption in Iran halts the supply chain.
Information Operations: RF sources are exploiting "Old New Year" traditions (1910Z) and alleged internal AFU scandals to maintain a presence in the Ukrainian cognitive domain during the infrastructure crisis.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Strategic Adaptation: The focus on "interceptor drones" at the latest Stavka indicates an intent to preserve expensive AD missiles for ballistic threats while using cheaper, localized drone solutions for Shahed-type targets.
Tactical Resilience: Volunteer networks continue to successfully fund "hellish gifts" (munitions) for frontline units (1906Z), partially mitigating the ministerial-level logistical delays noted in the daily report.
Infrastructure Defense: AD units in Dnipropetrovsk reported 3 UAV kills today (1911Z).
Information environment / disinformation
EU Sanctions (1904Z, DeepState): Reports of a 20th sanctions package (Feb 24 deadline) are being used to bolster domestic morale against the backdrop of the "Kyiv evacuation" rumors (1920Z).
KYIV EVACUATION NARRATIVE (1920Z, Tsaplienko, MEDIUM): Mentions of potential evacuations in Kyiv are circulating. ANALYSIS: This is likely tied to the 1317Z infrastructure collapse (sewage/power) rather than an imminent ground threat, but it is being amplified to cause panic.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Sustained Shahed penetration attempts into Kyiv Oblast from the North (Chernihiv) to exploit the grid failure and AD fatigue. Continued KAB strikes on Kharkiv logistics.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF uses the riverine USVs to launch a localized surprise crossing or major sabotage operation in the Dnepr delta to divert UAF reserves from the Pokrovsk/Zaporizhzhia axes.
Strategic Note: Watch for a sudden surge in RF missile activity if the Iranian situation destabilizes further, as RF may "use or lose" their current Iranian inventories.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Determine the technical specifications and control range of the RF riverine USVs used in the Dnepr delta.
[HIGH] Confirm the extent of UAF control within the Huliaipole "grey zone." Identify specific RF units involved in the house-to-house fighting.
[MEDIUM] Monitor the status of the 460 hectares of land in Zakarpattia (1926Z) for potential foreign/adversarial shell company involvement in the ARMA investigation.
[MEDIUM] Verify the "Kyiv evacuation" triggers; determine if this is a formal contingency plan or local administrative alarmism.
