MASSIVE COMBINED STRIKE RECOVERY (1808Z, Zelenskiy/Official, HIGH): President Zelenskyy confirmed a major Russian kinetic wave involving 18 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and a high volume of Shahed UAVs. A significant tactical milestone was reached with 64 Shaheds intercepted specifically by "zenith drones" (interceptor UAVs).
THERMOBARIC DRONE THREAT (1804Z, RBC-UA/Voloshyn, MEDIUM): Intelligence indicates RF forces are preparing to deploy thermobaric munitions via drone-drops in the Huliaipole (Zaporizhzhia) sector.
OCCUPIED TERRITORY GRID FAILURE (1824Z, Mash on Donbas, HIGH): Partial blackouts confirmed in Donetsk, Makiivka, and Yenakiieve following a series of unexplained explosions. This suggests a successful UAF deep strike or systematic sabotage of occupation energy infrastructure.
RF READINESS DEGRADATION (1817Z, Mobilization News, MEDIUM): Internal reports from the 127th Motor Rifle Division (MRD) indicate a severe breakdown in medical screening, with chronically ill/unfit personnel being deployed to the front, impacting unit cohesion and readiness.
IRANIAN ESCALATION / WESTERN EVACUATION (1807Z, ASTRA; 1829Z, Alex Parker, HIGH): Canada has joined the US in ordering an emergency evacuation of its citizens from Iran amid reports of 12,000+ casualties in domestic unrest. This creates a high-risk secondary theater that may impact RF's Iranian-sourced loitering munition supply chain.
ONGOING AIR THREAT (1826Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): High-speed ballistic/supersonic target detected inbound to Dnipro; Shahed-type UAVs detected on an easterly course toward Kaharlyk (Kyiv Oblast).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The battlefield geometry remains static but highly kinetic. The Russian Federation (RF) has shifted toward a "saturation and exhaustion" strategy, using ballistic missiles to fix Air Defense (AD) assets while utilizing UAVs to probe for gaps.
Weather: Extreme cold (-20°C) continues to strain both RF and UAF logistics. The stabilization of water supply in Irpin (1809Z) provides a minor humanitarian reprieve in the Kyiv outskirts.
Critical Infrastructure: The energy war has expanded into occupied territories (Donetsk/Makiivka), likely as a UAF response to the persistent strikes on the Ukrainian national grid.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Tactical Adaptations: RF is integrating thermobaric payloads into their tactical drone fleet (1804Z). This represents a significant threat to UAF entrenched positions in the Huliaipole sector, as thermobaric weapons are optimized for clearing bunkers and trenches.
Personnel/Sustainment: The report of unfit personnel in the 127th MRD (1817Z) and the completion of the corruption case against former Deputy MoD Bulgakov (1805Z) suggest a continuing crisis in RF military human resources and logistics management.
Logistics: The potential for a US/Western strike or increased instability in Iran threatens the RF's strategic reserve of Shahed-type munitions and the reported $3B missile procurement deal.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Technological Success: The confirmed use of "zenith" (interceptor) drones to down 64 Shaheds (1808Z, 1814Z) demonstrates a successful transition to low-cost, high-volume AD solutions. This preserves expensive SAM interceptors (Patriot/IRIS-T) for ballistic threats.
Resilience: Emergency services remain active in Kharkiv following civilian casualties (1821Z). UAF "Kairos" and "Alpha" SBU units continue to showcase high-efficiency drone operations against RF staging areas (1819Z).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
RF Narrative Ops: Pro-RF channels (Kotsnews, 1816Z) are escalating rhetorical attacks on Moldova (President Sandu), likely attempting to create a "second front" of political instability in the Balkans.
Iranian Disinformation: State media is broadcasting "confessions" of "armed terrorists" (1822Z) to justify the lethal crackdown on protesters.
Domestic (Ukraine): DeepState is utilizing its platform to promote computer vision/AI training for drone operators, indicating a bottom-up push for technical self-sufficiency (1802Z).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain the "high-speed target" pressure on Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia while using Shaheds to exhaust AD in the Kyiv/Kaharlyk corridor.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): An RF thermobaric drone offensive in the Huliaipole sector coincides with a local mechanized breakthrough, exploiting the psychological shock of the new munition type.
Strategic Forecast: Within 12-24 hours, expect a major US/International statement regarding Iran. If kinetic action occurs in Iran, expect a temporary surge in RF strikes on Ukraine to capitalize on diverted global attention.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Technical identification of "Zenith Drones"—are these FPV-based or autonomous interceptors?
[HIGH] BDA for the explosions in Donetsk and Makiivka. Confirm if the power outages are due to substation strikes or cyber-interdiction.
[MEDIUM] Verify the quantity and deployment status of the thermobaric drone units in the Zaporizhzhia AOR.
[LOW] Monitor the 127th MRD for signs of mutiny or combat refusal following the reports of "unfit" personnel deployment.
