BALLISTIC ESCALATION: NATIONWIDE (0606Z, Tsaplienko, MEDIUM): Reports indicate RF has launched approximately 25 ballistic missiles alongside a high volume of UAVs in the ongoing overnight "terror" wave.
ENERGY CRISIS: KYIV & OBLAST (0600Z-0602Z, DTEK/Tsaplienko, HIGH): Emergency power shutdowns have expanded from Kyiv city to the entire Kyiv Oblast following targeted strikes on DTEK Thermal Power Plants (TPPs) (0627Z, RBK-UA).
LOGISTICAL STRIKE: KHARKIV (0604Z, Sternenko/DSNS, HIGH): A Russian strike on a postal terminal in the Kharkiv suburbs killed 4 and injured 6, targeting civilian logistics infrastructure.
TACTICAL EW EFFECTIVENESS (0610Z, Zvizdets Mangustu, MEDIUM): UAF Electronic Warfare (EW) is reportedly disrupting 75-80% of RF UAV guidance/control channels in the tactical zone, causing high rates of terminal flight instability.
AIR DEFENSE ATTRITION: (0616Z, Operativno ZSU, HIGH): Operators of the 413th "Raid" SBS drone unit successfully neutralized a Russian Strela-10 SAM system.
RF INDUSTRIAL SHAKEUP (0618Z, TASS, HIGH): United Aircraft Corporation (OAK) confirmed senior leadership changes in the Operational-Tactical Aviation (OTA) and Tupolev divisions, suggesting internal pressure on aircraft production/maintenance.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
Battlefield Geometry: The air domain is the primary theater of operations. The threat to Kyiv has transitioned from a cruise missile (CM) vector to a multi-layered UAV and ballistic approach. UAVs are now reported on approach to Borodyanka (North-West) and Brovary (North/North-East), indicating an attempted envelopment of the capital's AD umbrella (0607Z, 0622Z).
Environment: Temperatures remain at -20°C. In Dnipropetrovsk, residential buildings are being connected directly to mobile generators (0600Z), indicating localized grid failure or proactive isolation to preserve critical heat.
Infrastructure: Occupied Berdyansk reports power restoration following a strike on LEO (Power Lines) (0609Z), showing that grid instability is affecting both sides of the FLOT.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Capabilities/Intentions: RF is utilizing a "saturation and penetration" tactic—using high-volume UAVs (Shahed/Geran) to deplete AD interceptors followed by ballistic missiles to strike hardened TPP targets.
Sustainment/Adaptation: Despite industrial leadership changes, RF leadership has planned a significant aviation fleet expansion for 2026 to compensate for SVO losses (0620Z).
Tactical Change: The strike on the Kharkiv postal terminal (0604Z) suggests a deliberate expansion of the target set to include dual-use logistics nodes (postal/courier services) used for small-unit resupply.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
EW Dominance: UAF EW platforms are achieving high success rates (up to 80%) in the tactical rear, likely forcing RF to rely on more expensive ballistic assets for precision strikes.
Force Posture: Drone units (413th) continue to prioritize the "hunting" of RF mobile AD (Strela-10) to create corridors for UAF counter-UAV and reconnaissance operations.
Civilian Resilience: DTEK is managing a "controlled" degradation of the grid via emergency shutdowns to prevent a cascading failure under the weight of ballistic impacts.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
RF Internal Control: TASS reports the ideological banning of "Labubu" toys in state institutions (0607Z), signaling an intensification of "spiritual-moral" censorship within the RF domestic rear.
Economic Hybrid War: RF sources are monitoring UK preparations to seize the "Shadow Fleet," framing it as a legal violation to justify potential maritime retaliation (0613Z).
Strategic Narrative: RF military propaganda continues to highlight Sergeant-level "heroes" (#ГероиZ) to maintain morale amidst reports of high attrition (+950 daily).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain the UAV pressure on Kyiv (Borodyanka/Brovary vectors) through the morning to prevent AD repositioning, while focusing remaining ballistic salvos on the DTEK TPP repair crews.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated strike on the mobile generator hubs in Dnipropetrovsk and Kyiv to force a civilian exodus during the peak of the -20°C freeze, creating a logistical bottleneck on westward roads.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
High Risk: Continued ballistic impacts in Central Ukraine; localized heating failures in Kyiv Oblast are highly likely.
Tactical: UAF EW will likely face RF frequency-hopping adaptations following the high disruption rates reported this morning.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirmation of the specific TPPs hit in the 0627Z wave to assess the total MW loss to the national grid.
[HIGH] SIGINT on RF aviation frequencies following the OAK/Tupolev leadership changes to identify potential shifts in sortie rates or maintenance priorities.
[MEDIUM] BDA of the Strela-10 strike to determine if RF is pulling mobile AD closer to the FLOT to counter UAF "Raid" units.
