TACTICAL: NEW SOUTHERN VECTOR TO KYIV (0237Z, UAF, HIGH): A strike UAV is approaching Kyiv from the South (Vyshenky area). This indicates a 360-degree saturation attempt when combined with previously reported Northern, Eastern, and Western vectors.
KINETIC: KAB LAUNCHES IN ZAPORIZHZHIA (0249Z, UAF, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation has launched Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) against targets in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, transitioning from reconnaissance to kinetic strikes.
TACTICAL: UAV TRANSIT TO POLTAVA (0257Z, UAF, HIGH): A group of strike UAVs has transitioned from Sumy Oblast toward Poltava, likely targeting energy infrastructure or seeking to bypass the primary Kyiv AD umbrella.
TACTICAL: EMERGING ACTIVITY NEAR KRYVYI RIH (0231Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Pro-Russian sources have released combat footage claiming the start of a "Krivoy Rog story." This may indicate a new secondary axis of drone or missile operations.
INFO-OPS: IRANIAN ESCALATION NARRATIVE (0245Z, RBC-UA/Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Coordinated reporting on potential US strikes against Iran is being used to frame the current conflict within a broader global escalation, likely intended to distract Western audiences from the Ukrainian "Frozen Rear" crisis.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
Battlefield Geometry: The air domain is currently the primary theater. The RF has expanded its UAV flight paths to encircle Kyiv from all cardinal directions. The "Western Vector" (previously identified) is now complemented by a "Southern Vector," complicating AD radar orientation.
Weather: No change; extreme cold (-20°C) persists. This remains a critical vulnerability for the 800+ buildings in Kyiv without heat.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Tactical Adaptation: The RF is shifting from simple "shuttle launches" to complex, synchronized multi-vector arrivals. By sending groups toward Poltava (0257Z) while simultaneously pressuring Kyiv from the South (0237Z) and launching KABs in Zaporizhzhia (0249Z), the RF is attempting to "fix" UAF AD assets in place, preventing them from reinforcing the capital.
Course of Action: The mention of Kryvyi Rih (0231Z) suggests the RF may be expanding its target list to include industrial/logistical hubs in the Dnipropetrovsk region to further dilute UAF defensive depth.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
AD Posture: UAF Air Force is actively tracking and engaging multiple groups. The detection of the Vyshenky approach (South) confirms that mobile fire groups and AD nodes are maintaining 360-degree vigilance despite the cold.
Constraints: High consumption of AD interceptors is expected given the "dozens" of UAVs reported in the previous window (0229Z) and the new waves entering via Sumy.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Strategic Distraction: Russian channels are amplifying reports of US-Iran tensions (0245Z, 0256Z) and French domestic scandals (0234Z). This is a classic hybrid tactic to shift international focus away from the humanitarian impact of the heating crisis in Ukraine.
Internal RF Fraud: Reports of AI-driven fraud targeting Russian citizens (0238Z) suggest internal stability issues or "white noise" in the RF information space.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued UAV saturation of Kyiv through 0500Z to force maximum AD expenditure, followed by a concentrated KAB or missile strike on Zaporizhzhia and/or Poltava energy nodes at dawn.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): The RF uses the "Southern Vector" drones to identify gaps in Kyiv's inner AD ring, followed immediately by a low-altitude Kalibr cruise missile strike launched from the Black Sea, timed to coincide with the arrival of the Sumy/Poltava UAV groups.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Kyiv: Expect sustained engagement of UAVs from the South and West. High risk of kinetic impact as AD saturation levels are reached.
Zaporizhzhia: Immediate threat from tactical aviation (KABs). Heavy damage to frontline and near-rear positions is likely.
Poltava: High probability of strikes on electrical substations as UAV groups transit the region.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Kryvyi Rih Intentions: Verify if the "Krivoy Rog" footage (0231Z) indicates a new ground probe or merely a coordinated missile/drone strike series.
[HIGH] KAB Targets: Identify specific impact points in Zaporizhzhia (0249Z) to assess if the RF is targeting UAF troop concentrations or energy infrastructure.
[MEDIUM] Southern Vector Origin: Determine if the UAV at Vyshenky (0237Z) was launched from the Kherson/Crimea axis or conducted a long-range bypass from the East.
