TACTICAL SUCCESS: KUPYANSK CITY COUNCIL SECURED (1801Z-1828Z, Butusov Plus/Tsapliienko/RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): Ukrainian "Khartia" Corps (2nd Corps NGU) and Tactical Group "Kupiansk" have deblocked the city and cleared the City Council building. Visual confirmation shows the Ukrainian flag raised over the administrative center.
MARITIME INTERDICTION: VIDEO EVIDENCE OF SHIP STRIKES (1812Z-1813Z, NgP Razvedka/ASTRA, HIGH): Footage released by RF-affiliated sources confirms loitering munition strikes on civilian cargo vessels (grain carriers) in or near Odesa ports. RF narratives are explicitly labeling these "illegal vessels" to justify the blockade.
SUSTAINED STRATEGIC STRIKE: OREL TPP RE-ATTACKED (1813Z, Operativno ZSU, HIGH): UAF long-range UAVs have conducted a second wave of strikes against the Orel Thermal Power Plant (TPP) in Russia. Nighttime visual evidence confirms successful impacts and ongoing fire.
TARGETED IPSO: POW/MIA FAMILIES (1828Z, Coordination HQ for POWs, HIGH): The Ukrainian Ombudsman has issued a high-priority alert regarding a coordinated Russian psychological operation (IPSO) targeting the families of Ukrainian prisoners of war and missing personnel.
ATTRITION AT KOSTIANTYNIVKA (1806Z, Sternenko, MEDIUM): UAF FPV units ("Cursed Empire") successfully targeted RF high-value assets, including Starlink terminals, antennas, and multiple transport vehicles (Bukhankas/buggies) on the Kostiantynivka axis.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
Battlefield Geometry: The frontline has significantly shifted in the Kupyansk Sector following the UAF counter-offensive that deblocked the city. The operational focus in the north is now city-wide clearance and stabilization.
Environmental Factors: Sustained extreme cold (-20°C) continues to impact both sides. UAF's secondary strike on Orel TPP (1813Z) reinforces the "energy-for-energy" doctrine, aiming to degrade Russian heating capacity during peak winter.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Naval Blockade Adaptation: RF is now utilizing "visual proof" of civilian vessel strikes as a psychological weapon to deter international shipping. The shift from covert sabotage to broadcasting strike footage (1813Z) indicates a move toward an overt, albeit non-conventional, naval blockade.
Electronic Warfare (EW) / Comms: On the Zaporizhzhia flank, RF sources report Captain Dmitriy Bondar (Buryat unit) successfully established resilient comms under fire (1805Z), suggesting RF is actively working to mitigate UAF's drone-led C2 disruption.
Logistics & Sustainment: Sanctions impact is reportedly peaking, with Russian oil production at a 1.5-year low (1818Z), potentially constraining long-term fuel reserves for mechanized operations.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Tactical Momentum (Kupyansk): The successful coordination between the 2nd Corps NGU (Khartia) and tactical groups (1801Z) demonstrates a high level of combined arms proficiency in urban de-occupation.
Deep Strike Continuity: The ability to execute a "repeat" strike on the Orel TPP indicates a sophisticated UAV flight path planning that can bypass Russian AD multiple times in a 24-hour window.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Russian IPSO: A highly targeted campaign is underway to exploit the emotional vulnerability of POW families. This likely aims to spark domestic unrest in Ukraine by claiming government abandonment of prisoners.
Divergent Narratives: While RF sources focus on "heroism" in Zaporizhzhia (1805Z) and "blockade success" in Odesa (1812Z), UAF-affiliated sources are dominating the visual space with the Kupyansk liberation footage (1828Z).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will launch heavy retaliatory strikes (likely KAB glide bombs) on Kupyansk city center within 6-12 hours to punish UAF for the City Council capture.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the "Shadow Fleet" seizure pretext (1829Z TASS context) to escalate maritime strikes to include non-Ukrainian civilian vessels further out in the Black Sea, effectively closing the corridor to all neutral traffic.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
The tactical success in Kupyansk will likely trigger a Russian escalation in the Kharkiv sector. In the south, the maritime situation remains Critical/Kinetic. In Russia's strategic rear, expect further UAV activity as UAF exploits the successful penetration of the Orel AD envelope.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Kupyansk Stabilization: Determine the extent of RF forces remaining in the industrial outskirts of Kupyansk or if a full withdrawal has commenced.
[HIGH] Orel TPP Degradation: Assess if the secondary strike (1813Z) has achieved "functional kill" status of the power plant's turbines or if it remains partially operational.
[MEDIUM] Maritime Casualty Assessment: Confirm the status of the crew and the extent of cargo damage on the Panamanian-flagged vessel hit in Odesa.
