CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE: KYIV ENERGY CRISIS (0933Z, RusVesna/Nahornyak, HIGH): TPP-5 and TPP-6 in Kyiv remain non-operational following recent ballistic strikes. This confirms systemic degradation of the capital's heating and power generation during severe winter conditions (-22°C).
HYBRID WARFARE: KYIV SCHOOL INCIDENT (0930Z-0949Z, Prosecutor General/Tsaplienko, HIGH): A minor wounded a teacher and classmate in a Kyiv school. National Police report discovery of correspondence with "hostile special services" on the attacker's device. This represents a likely shift in RF hybrid tactics toward domestic destabilization via radicalized youth.
KINETIC ESCALATION: ZAPORIZHZHIA KAB STRIKES (0932Z, PS ZSU, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation has launched a wave of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) against targets in the Zaporizhzhia region.
AERIAL THREAT: MULTI-AXIS UAV PENETRATION (0932Z-0951Z, PS ZSU, HIGH): Active BpLA (UAV) groups detected over northern Kyiv (moving toward Zhytomyr), Mykolaiv (triggering air alerts), and Zaporizhzhia (approaching from the south).
REAR AREA SECURITY: PERM KRAI SABOTAGE (0941Z, TASS/FSB, MEDIUM): RF FSB claims to have prevented a Ukrainian-directed sabotage operation against a railway bridge in Perm Krai. The suspect was reportedly recruited via "scammers/special services."
INTERNAL RF INSTABILITY: GROZNY CIVIL DISORDER (0942Z, Parker, MEDIUM): A mass brawl involving ~30 individuals occurred in Grozny following a wrestling match between Chechen and Ossetian athletes. This highlights ongoing ethnic/regional friction within the RF domestic space.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
Weather: Extreme cold persists. The continued outage of Kyiv TPP-5/6 and the Odesa grid deficit (33.5k families) creates a critical humanitarian and operational vulnerability.
Infrastructure: The focus of RF kinetic activity remains the permanent disconnection of major generation nodes (TPPs) rather than just distribution substations.
Battlefield Geometry: The frontline remains active across all major axes, with the General Staff (GS ZSU) reporting high-intensity clashes from Kharkiv to the Dnieper.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Tactical Aviation: Increased KAB usage in the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk sectors (Havrylivka, Mala Tokmachka, Orikhiv) indicates an effort to suppress UAF forward positions and logistical hubs (0946Z).
Hybrid Operations: The recruitment of a minor for a kinetic attack in Kyiv (0949Z) suggests a "cheap" but high-impact destabilization tactic designed to strain internal security resources and trigger domestic panic.
Rear Area Security: The interdiction in Perm Krai (0941Z) indicates RF focus on protecting Trans-Siberian GLOCs, suggesting they perceive a high threat from UAF-aligned partisan cells.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
Defensive Posture: GS ZSU confirms ongoing defensive operations in the following key directions:
Kupyansk/Lyman: Heavy pressure near Petropavlivka and Yampil.
Pokrovsk/Kramatorsk: Sustained RF assaults near Stupochky and Pokrovsk outskirts.
Zaporizhzhia (Orikhiv/Huliaipole): Maintaining lines despite the collapse of anti-drone screens reported in the previous 24h cycle.
Air Defense: Active engagement of UAVs in Mykolaiv and Zhytomyr sectors. SHORAD assets are likely being prioritized for mobile UAV intercept.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
Strategic Distraction (Iran): Unconfirmed reports of an impending coup/revolution in Iran (0933Z) are circulating. Iran’s MoFA is pre-emptively blaming US/Israeli "terrorist actions." Loss of the Iranian "Shahed" pipeline would be a critical strategic blow to RF long-range strike capabilities.
Technological Propaganda: RF channels are promoting the "Oreshek" system as superior to European Arrow-3 (0951Z), likely to deter further Western AD deployments.
Domestic Russian Control: Roskomnadzor’s refusal to unblock Roblox (0931Z) indicates a tightening of the domestic information space and increased cultural isolationism.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue using UAV "swarms" to map AD responses in the Zhytomyr/Kyiv corridor to facilitate a follow-up missile strike on remaining energy nodes (Kyiv TPP-5/6 repairs or substations).
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated "Internal Front" campaign where secondary hybrid attacks (similar to the school stabbing) are timed with kinetic strikes to overwhelm emergency services and trigger civil unrest in the capital.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
High probability of continued KAB strikes on the Zaporizhzhia-Orikhiv axis. Air defense alerts will remain active across the Northern and Southern corridors as UAV groups continue to maneuver. Expect intensified RF messaging regarding Western "vulnerability" to winter conditions.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Hybrid Recruitment Vectors: Analyze the communication platform used by the Kyiv school attacker to identify the specific RF intelligence unit (GRU/FSB) conducting youth radicalization.
[HIGH] Kyiv TPP Status: Determine the timeline for emergency repairs at TPP-5/6; current reports suggest they are "out of service," but the extent of structural vs. technical damage is unconfirmed.
[MEDIUM] Iran Pipeline: Monitor Caspian Sea traffic and transport aviation from Tehran for signs of disruption in UAV/component deliveries following reports of domestic unrest.
