UAV TRANSIT TO CHERKASY (0106Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH): A group of RF loitering munitions (Shahed-type) has transited from Poltava Oblast into the Drabiv area of Cherkasy Oblast, continuing a westward vector toward Central Ukraine.
AMPLIFIED GLOBAL DISTRACTION NARRATIVE (0113Z, НгП раZVедка, LOW): RF-linked channels are actively monitoring and amplifying "statements" from Greenland, likely tied to the previously identified IO campaign (0059Z) regarding territorial interests.
PRO-RF NARRATIVE SHIFT TO PLA CAPABILITIES (0104Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Significant shift in RF information space to highlight Chinese PLA H-6 bomber capabilities in the South China Sea. This likely serves as a secondary distraction from recent RF naval losses in the Caspian Sea.
CONTINUED UAV PERSISTENCE (0103Z, Николаевский Ванёк, HIGH): Intelligence confirms a "remainder" of the current UAV wave is still active, suggesting the saturation effort is not yet concluded.
Operational picture (by sector)
Central Sector (Cherkasy/Drabiv): The kinetic threat has migrated west from the Poltava/Myrhorod sector. The current vector places Drabiv (Cherkasy) and potentially the Kyiv/Kaniv reservoir infrastructure under immediate threat. The transit time suggests these units are being used for long-duration "loitering" to force UAF AD radar activation.
Northern Sector (Poltava/Sumy): UAV presence is diminishing as the wave moves west, but the area remains under high alert for "back-fill" missile strikes or second-wave drones.
Global Strategic (Information Domain): RF mil-bloggers are pivoting heavily toward non-theater narratives (China, South China Sea, Greenland). This indicates a coordinated effort to mask tactical friction and domestic instability (Iran/Telegram crackdown) with "Great Power" geopolitics.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
AERIAL OPERATIONS: The RF continues to use Shahed-type UAVs as "pathfinders." The movement into Cherkasy Oblast (0106Z) suggests an attempt to bypass established AD corridors around Poltava. The mention of "remainder of mopeds" (0103Z) indicates that while the wave is thinning, the RF still has active assets in the air capable of precision strikes on localized targets.
HYBRID/IO EVOLUTION: The introduction of PLA H-6 bomber capabilities into the RF information space (0104Z) is a classic "reflexive control" tactic. By projecting strength via a partner (PRC), the RF aims to demoralize Ukrainian supporters and project an image of a broader global front against the West.
STRATEGIC LOGISTICS: No new data on the Iran unrest; however, the ongoing use of UAVs confirms that current operational stocks are sufficient for at least the next 24-48 hours of saturation strikes.
Friendly activity (UAF)
AIR DEFENSE (AD): Mobile fire groups and electronic warfare (EW) units in the Cherkasy sector are being vectored to intercept the group moving toward Drabiv.
STRATEGIC READINESS: High state of alert remains for the anticipated Tu-95MS sortie. UAF units are currently prioritizing the protection of the "stalled rail segments" (60+ trains) identified in the previous daily report.
Information environment / disinformation
GREENLAND CAMPAIGN (UNCONFIRMED/LOW): RF sources (НгП раZVедка, 0113Z) are attempting to validate a "social movement" or identity narrative in Greenland (Dempster-Shafer belief: 0.20). This is assessed as a low-impact distraction campaign intended for Western audiences.
CHINA ALIGNMENT (MEDIUM): The visualization of PLA bomber reach in the South China Sea by prominent RF mil-bloggers (0104Z) is a deliberate attempt to link the Ukrainian theater to a larger global conflict, potentially to discourage further Western military aid by implying a looming "Pacific Front."
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): The UAV group currently over Drabiv will attempt to strike energy or logistical nodes in the Cherkasy/Kyiv region within the next 2 hours. This will be the final mapping phase before the predicted 0400Z Tu-95MS cruise missile launch.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): RF forces use the distraction of the "China/Greenland" narratives to launch a synchronized cyber-kinetic attack on the Telegram platform and Ukrainian rail C2 systems while the 60+ trains remain stalled and vulnerable.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
PLA-RF COORDINATION: Identify if the shift to PLA narratives (0104Z) is purely IO-driven or if there is technical SIGINT suggesting increased RF/PRC intelligence sharing regarding standoff munitions.
DRABIV VECTOR: Determine the specific target set in the Drabiv/Cherkasy corridor (e.g., specific substation or rail bridge) to better allocate SHORAD assets.
TELEGRAM STABILITY: Continuous monitoring for technical "blackouts" or throttling within RF territory following the Mizulina signal (0041Z).
