AIR THREAT: KYIV METRO AREA (1509Z-1518Z, UAF Air Force/KMVA, HIGH): Multiple strike UAVs detected moving toward Brovary and Kyiv; air raid alert currently active for the capital and surrounding oblasts.
TACTICAL SUCCESS: KUPYANSK SECTOR (1502Z, Butusov Plus, MEDIUM): Video evidence confirms the destruction of a Russian assault group. UAF describes the engagement as a "slaughterhouse" (скотoбійня) for RF forces.
RUSSIAN DOMESTIC INSTABILITY: BELGOROD BLACKOUT (1510Z-1511Z, Sternenko/Kotsnews, MEDIUM): Reports indicate a three-day blackout in Belgorod amid extreme winter conditions. Note: Potential AI-generated imagery has been flagged (1520Z, Sternenko), but multi-source reporting confirms critical infrastructure failure.
STRATEGIC LOGISTICS: ZAPORIZHZHIA REINFORCEMENT (1520Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): Ukrainian regional administration reports completion of a week-long procurement and logistical cycle to strengthen the Zaporizhzhia front, countering recent defensive breaches.
GEOPOLITICAL HYBRID THREAT: GREENLAND/NATO (1506Z-1515Z, RBK-UA/Operation Z, MEDIUM): Germany has reportedly proposed a NATO military mission ("Arctic Sentry") to protect Greenland, following alleged threats from the US political sphere.
CASPIAN BDA CONFIRMATION (1523Z, Alex Parker Returns, MEDIUM): Pro-Russian sources have acknowledged the UAF strike on three Caspian oil platforms, signaling high internal frustration within RF military circles.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Axis (Kyiv/Zhytomyr)
Kyiv: The city is currently under air raid alert. Strike UAVs (Shahed/Geran type) are on approach from the east (Brovary). This confirms the MLCOA predicted in the 1500Z report, indicating an attempt to saturate AD following the "depleted interceptors" information operation.
Zhytomyr: Continued UAV activity suggests this remains a secondary transit corridor for deeper strikes into Western Ukraine.
2. Eastern Axis (Kupyansk/Lyman)
Kupyansk: High-intensity attrition continues. Successful UAF defensive actions have resulted in the total neutralization of at least one RF assault unit.
Borova-Redkodub: Active localized combat reported (1520Z). RF forces are likely attempting to find gaps in the UAF line to alleviate pressure from the Kupyansk failures.
3. Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia)
Logistics: The successful delivery of reinforcements and equipment (1520Z) is critical given the previous collapse of anti-drone screens and the loss of Belogorye. This logistical surge is aimed at stabilizing the line before the 49th Combined Arms Army can exploit the breach.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Capabilities: RF forces continue heavy reliance on FPV drones to interdict Ukrainian equipment (1459Z). In the Kupyansk sector, infantry quality remains low, with "meat assault" patterns persisting despite high casualty rates.
Internal Strain: The Belgorod blackout and resident protests in the Moscow region (ЖК «Рафинад», 1519Z) over poor infrastructure management indicate that the RF domestic rear is struggling to maintain basic services under winter stress. This creates a vulnerability for psychological operations.
Information Operations: Pro-Russian channels are amplifying NATO internal divisions regarding Greenland (1515Z) to distract from the Caspian Sea strikes and domestic infrastructure failures.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: Currently engaged in the defense of the Kyiv metropolitan area.
Logistical Resilience: Despite rail delays (reported at 1500Z), the Zaporizhzhia OBA has successfully funneled resources to the front, indicating that ground supply lines (GLOCs) remain functional for high-priority military cargo.
Information environment / disinformation
AI Contamination: Caution is advised regarding visual intel from Belgorod; at least one widely circulated video showing civilian hardship is suspected of being AI-generated (1520Z). However, the underlying fact of infrastructure failure is corroborated by RU military correspondents (Kotsnews).
Strategic Distraction: The "Greenland Mission" narrative is being used by RU IO to portray NATO as being in a state of crisis/paranoia regarding US-European relations.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Kinetic impact of UAVs in Kyiv/Brovary within the next 1-3 hours. RF will likely follow this with a small-scale missile strike if AD gaps are identified.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF forces in the Borova-Redkodub sector achieve a tactical breakthrough, threatening the flank of UAF forces in Kupyansk while Kyiv's AD is saturated.
Weather Impact: Yellow level weather warnings in Moscow and heavy snow in Belgorod will continue to degrade RF logistical throughput in the border regions.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Kyiv AD Efficacy: Real-time monitoring of interception rates for the current UAV wave to assess the validity of RU claims regarding "depleted" stocks.
Belgorod Energy Status: Confirmation of whether the blackout is due to UAF sabotage, weather, or systemic maintenance failure.
Borova-Redkodub Geometry: Precise mapping of the contact line to determine if RF has established a foothold in Redkodub.
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB) SUMMARY
SITUATION OVERVIEW: The conflict has entered a period of simultaneous strategic deep strikes (Caspian) and tactical attrition (Kupyansk), while weather serves as a force multiplier for domestic instability in Russia.
THREAT ASSESSMENT: RF 49th CAA remains the primary offensive threat in the South, while the RU Strategic Rocket Forces/VKS are currently testing Kyiv's AD density.
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS: Expect intensified RU internal IO focusing on "Western betrayal" (Greenland) to mask the economic impact of the Lukoil platform strikes.
