KINETIC IMPACT: RIVNE DRONE ATTACK (1256Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): The Rivne region is currently under a multi-vector drone assault. This follows earlier rail interdictions and suggests a persistent RF effort to degrade Western Ukrainian logistics and infrastructure nodes.
TERRITORIAL CLAIM: BELOHORYE (1234Z, Starshiy Edda, LOW): Russian sources claim the capture of Belohorye (Zaporizhzhia front). This is UNCONFIRMED and currently contradicted by analytical skepticism from other pro-RF sources regarding the pace of MoD-reported gains (1236Z).
INFRASTRUCTURE: KYIV HEATING (1257Z, Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH): Municipal heating has been restored to 85% of affected buildings following the recent strike. However, civilian protests in Kyiv suburbs over continued electricity outages (1231Z) indicate localized grid instability remains a flashpoint for civil unrest.
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT: ZAPORIZHZHIA (1248Z, RBK-Ukraine, MEDIUM): Severe wind gusts have damaged "anti-drone tunnels" protecting critical front-line roads. This degradation of physical concealment/protection assets increases the vulnerability of UAF logistical movements to RF FPV/Lancet strikes.
OPERATIONAL FRICTION: PLESCHEEVKA (1230Z, Rybar, MEDIUM): Renewed localized fighting is confirmed in the vicinity of Plescheevka (Kostyantynivka axis), indicating an RF attempt to pressure the flanks of the Bakhmut-Kostyantynivka GLOC.
TECHNICAL THREAT: TAURUS NEO (1245Z, Dva Mayora, MEDIUM): Reports of Germany beginning serial production of the modernized "Taurus Neo" cruise missile. While a friendly development, RF sources are already utilizing this for narrative "escalation" counter-messaging.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is characterized by extreme winter weather and a shift in RF focus toward Western Ukrainian infrastructure (Rivne) and localized tactical breakthroughs in the South (Zaporizhzhia).
Battlefield Geometry: The frontline is seeing high-intensity localized "grinding" rather than broad maneuvering. The focus has shifted to the Kostyantynivka (Plescheevka) and Orikhiv (Belohorye) axes.
Weather/Environmental Factors: Blizzard "Francis" is impacting Moscow (1248Z), likely slowing RF rear-area logistics. In Ukraine, severe winds in Zaporizhzhia (1248Z) and heavy snow in occupied Kakhovka (1232Z) are degrading drone operations and destroying protective infrastructure.
Force Dispositions: RF "Dnepr" Group elements (Novorossiysk paratroopers) are conducting intensive demining in Zaporizhzhia (1233Z), suggesting preparations for mechanized assault groups despite the weather.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities & Intentions:
Offensive Pivot: The claimed capture of Belohorye (1234Z), if verified, represents a move to widen the breach toward Orikhiv. The use of EOD specialists to clear paths for "assault groups" (1233Z) confirms an intent to maintain offensive momentum despite winter conditions.
Logistical Preparation: RF channels (NgP) are documenting the preparation of new vehicle batches (1232Z), suggesting that reserves are being readied to exploit any gaps caused by the current logistics "freeze" (rail delays).
Tactical Adaptation: RF is leveraging weather-induced damage to UAF anti-drone structures.
Command & Control (C2): Internal RF discourse is showing signs of "reflection" or fatigue as the conflict's duration surpasses that of WWII (1230Z), though this has not yet translated into operational passivity.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Force Posture: UAF remains in a defensive crouch in the East (Plescheevka) and South (Belohorye). The destruction of anti-drone tunnels (1248Z) requires immediate tactical remediation (smoke or night-only movement) to prevent FPV-driven attrition.
Infrastructure Management: Significant progress in Kyiv heating (85% restored) is a critical win for civil morale, though the electricity-related protests in suburbs (1231Z) suggest the "energy-social" link is fragile.
Technical Readiness: The potential arrival of Taurus Neo (1245Z) provides a medium-term outlook for enhanced deep-strike capabilities, though no immediate impact is noted.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Disinformation/IO: RF-aligned channels are circulating a highly suspect report (The New York Post/Tsplienko, 1243Z) regarding "unknown weapons" used by the US in Venezuela. This is likely a hybrid operation intended to frame Western technological interventions as "inhumane" or "mysterious" to justify future RF EW/unconventional deployments.
Morale Indicators: Ukrainian tennis player Marta Kostyuk's speech (1242Z) regarding the domestic cold crisis is being amplified; while intended to gain international support, it is also being used by RF channels to highlight "Ukrainian suffering" as a result of leadership failure.
Global Diversion: Civil unrest in Iran (1253Z) and US rhetoric regarding Cuba/Venezuela (1245Z) are increasingly consuming the international news cycle, potentially diluting the focus on the Rivne/Kyiv strikes.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue drone saturation of Rivne and Western Ukraine to force UAF to deplete AD magazines while their rail logistics are stalled. On the ground, expect localized "probing" in Zaporizhzhia to verify the capture of Belohorye.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF exploits the damaged anti-drone tunnels in Zaporizhzhia to launch a rapid mechanized dash toward Orikhiv while UAF visual reconnaissance is degraded by wind and snow.
Timeline: Next 6 hours: Peak of the Rivne drone wave. Next 12 hours: Arrival of Blizzard "Francis" in northern sectors, likely grounding tactical aviation.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Ground Truth Belohorye: Immediate IMINT/Drone reconnaissance required to verify control of Belohorye (Zaporizhzhia).
Rivne BDA: Identify if the drone strikes (1256Z) targeted energy infrastructure or the regional logistics hubs for Western equipment.
Anti-Drone Tunnel Status: Assessment of the total linear mileage of protective tunnels lost in Zaporizhzhia to determine the duration of "exposed" GLOCs.
7. RECOMMENDATIONS
Zaporizhzhia GLOC Security: Deploy additional EW jamming teams to the affected "wind-damaged" roads in Zaporizhzhia to compensate for the loss of physical anti-drone tunnels.
Civilian Stability: Immediate deployment of mobile power stations to Kyiv suburbs to quell utility-related protests (1231Z) and prevent RF IO from exploiting internal social fractures.
Air Defense Prioritization: Shift mobile AD assets to cover the Rivne-Lutsk corridor; the RF is clearly attempting to exploit the "rear" while the frontline is frozen by weather.
