NEW WEAPON SYSTEM DEPLOYMENT (0821Z, GUR/RBK-UA, HIGH): Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) confirms the first operational use of the "Geran-5" strike UAV. Initial assessment suggests a heavier payload or enhanced range compared to previous variants.
UAV WAVE PROGRESSION - WESTERN UKRAINE (0813Z-0822Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Strike UAVs have transited Zhytomyr (heading for Ovruch) and are now entering Volyn region (Kamen-Kashyrskyi district).
TACTICAL ADVANCE - ZAPORIZHZHIA (0815Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): RF forces are reportedly conducting "clearing operations" in the vicinity of Svyatopetrovka. This indicates a localized push in the Zaporizhzhia sector.
KAB STRIKE OPERATIONS (0803Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): RF tactical aviation has launched a wave of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) targeting the Donetsk region.
RECOVERY COMPLETION - KHARKIV (0809Z, Kharkiv ODA, HIGH): Rescue and recovery operations at the site of the January 2nd strike in Kharkiv have officially concluded.
STRATEGIC ATTRITION SUMMARY (0816Z, Zelenskiy/RBK-UA, HIGH): Total RF munitions expenditure for the past 7 days: ~1100 strike UAVs, 890+ KABs, and 50+ missiles (including "Oreshnik").
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Operational Picture)
The aerial domain remains the primary theater of operations this morning. The massive 154-drone wave reported in the previous sitrep is now penetrating deep into Western Ukraine (Volyn/Zhytomyr), testing the endurance of regional SHORAD.
Battlefield Geometry: RF ground activity is focusing on the Zaporizhzhia (Svyatopetrovka) and Donbas (KAB strikes) sectors. The frontline is under intense pressure from tactical aviation.
Weather and Environment: Intensive snow clearance continues in Dnipropetrovsk (100+ units of equipment) and Zaporizhzhia (ZOMA, 0801Z; Ganzha, 0816Z). Road conditions are marginally improving but remain a significant bottleneck for logistics.
Energy Grid Status: President Zelensky confirms a "difficult situation" persists across multiple regions following strikes on critical infrastructure (0814Z). Maintenance crews are operating 24/7.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Technical Adaptation: The introduction of the "Geran-5" (0821Z) marks a significant evolution in the RF strike profile. If confirmed as a heavier variant, it may be intended for hardened infrastructure targets that previous Shahed-type drones could not reliably destroy.
Tactical Courses of Action:
Air: RF is maintaining a "high-low" mix of expensive ballistic missiles (Oreshnik) and mass-produced UAVs to saturate UAF AD.
Ground: The "clearing" of Svyatopetrovka (0815Z) suggests the RF 14th Spetsnaz or Vostok Group units are attempting to widen the breach in the Zaporizhzhia gray zone identified in the daily report (Zelene sector).
Logistics: The dismissal of a deputy district head in Kuban (RF) for "harsh treatment" of rescuers (0808Z) suggests internal administrative friction within RF rear-area emergency management following UAF deep strikes.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Air Defense Posture: UAF Air Force is tracking and intercepting UAVs across the Northern and Western corridors. High focus remains on protecting the Volyn/Rivne axis.
Civil-Military Operations: Local administrations in Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv are prioritizing infrastructure restoration and road clearance to maintain mobility for reinforcement columns.
Constraints: The cumulative impact of 1100+ UAVs in a single week is placing an unprecedented strain on interceptor stockpiles.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Regional Escalation Narrative: Pro-Russian channels (Parker, Cassad) are heavily amplifying Iranian threats to strike US/Israeli bases (0821Z, 0825Z). This is a coordinated effort to frame the Ukraine conflict as a secondary theater to a looming "Great War."
Western Distraction: Reports of "NATO missions to Greenland" (0825Z) and fake civil unrest in Minneapolis (0800Z) are being circulated to portray Western allies as either distracted by internal chaos or irrelevant strategic sideshows.
Energy Morale: RU sources are weaponizing DTEK's "worst winter" statements (0813Z) to induce "energy defeatism" among the Ukrainian civilian population.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will utilize the "Geran-5" in the next 6-12 hours against a specific high-value infrastructure target in Western Ukraine (likely near the Rivne or Volyn energy hubs) to demonstrate the new platform's effectiveness.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF ground forces in Zaporizhzhia exploit the snow-degraded mobility of UAF heavy equipment to launch a multi-regiment assault on Svyatopetrovka, aiming to bypass established defensive lines while UAF AD is preoccupied with the Western UAV wave.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Geran-5 Specifications: Immediate IMINT or wreckage analysis required to determine payload capacity, engine type, and guidance systems of the "Geran-5."
Svyatopetrovka Status: Confirm UAF 128th or 65th Bde presence in the Svyatopetrovka area to validate RF "clearing" claims.
KAB Impacts: Assess the specific targets of the 0803Z KAB launches in Donetsk—prioritizing whether they hit frontline positions or rear logistics hubs.
7. RECOMMENDATIONS
SHORAD Conservation: Volyn and Zhytomyr regional commands should prioritize mobile fire groups (AA machine guns/light cannons) for the current UAV wave to conserve high-tier interceptors for the confirmed ballistic/Geran-5 threats.
Electronic Warfare (EW): Deploy specialized EW teams to the Zaporizhzhia sector to counter RF drone-corrected artillery supporting the Svyatopetrovka push.
Infrastructure Hardening: Increase physical protection (Hesco/sandbags) at remaining functional substations in Dnipropetrovsk and Rivne immediately, as they are likely the intended targets for the "Geran-5" operational debut.
