REPELLED ASSAULT - POKROVSK (0721Z, RBK-UA/7th Corps DSHW, HIGH): UAF 25th Airborne Brigade successfully repelled a Russian ground assault on the northern outskirts of Pokrovsk.
STRIKE ON UAV INFRASTRUCTURE - SOUTHERN SECTOR (0700Z, Voin DV, HIGH): Units of the RF 394th Motorized Rifle Regiment (127th Division, 5th Army) successfully targeted and destroyed a UAF UAV control point.
BALLISTIC THREAT HYPED - "ORESHNIK" (0728Z, Kotsnews, LOW - UNCONFIRMED): Russian sources are amplifying claims regarding the use of the "Oreshnik" (experimental ballistic/IRBM) system. This may be psychological preparation for a follow-up strike after the Kharkiv interception reported on 10 JAN.
WEATHER-INDUCED LOGISTICAL FRICTION - KHARKIV (0708Z, Synehubov/KRMA, MEDIUM): Heavy adverse weather has necessitated emergency road clearing on major Kharkiv transport arteries.
COORDINATED IO - MOBILIZATION SABOTAGE (0712Z, Operatsiya Z, MEDIUM): Russian "milbloggers" have launched a synchronized narrative targeting Ukrainian students, claiming imminent mass mobilization to incite domestic unrest.
HYBRID ESCALATION - GREENLAND NARRATIVE (0704Z-0708Z, Colonelcassad/Operativnyi ZSU, MEDIUM): Disinformation regarding a US "invasion" of Greenland and retaliatory EU sanctions is being aggressively pushed to fracture NATO/EU-US cohesion.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Operational Picture)
The operational tempo remains high, characterized by a mix of localized ground assaults in the Donbas and a sophisticated hybrid campaign in the cognitive domain.
Battlefield Geometry: The frontline in Pokrovsk remains the primary focus of RF kinetic energy. The failed assault on the northern sector (0721Z) indicates RF is attempting to find gaps in the 25th Airborne’s perimeter rather than pursuing a purely frontal approach.
Environmental Factors: Adverse weather in the Kharkiv region is complicating both logistics and the deployment of mobile AD assets. Road clearing is underway (0708Z), but ground conditions likely favor defensive static positions over mechanized maneuvers for the next 12 hours.
Force Dispositions: The RF "Vostok" Group (Southern Sector) is showing increased proficiency in technical reconnaissance, successfully closing the kill-chain on a UAF drone control point (0700Z).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Tactical Shifts: RF forces are prioritizing the destruction of UAF UAV infrastructure. By targeting control points (0700Z) and utilizing precision assets like Krasnopol (previous report), the RF aims to degrade the UAF’s eyes-and-ears before initiating larger ground pushes.
Capabilities (Ballistic): The specific mention of "Oreshnik" (0728Z) suggests the RF is attempting to regain the "ballistic initiative" after UAF successfully intercepted a ballistic missile over Kharkiv yesterday.
Logistics: Continued fundraising for the Kupyansk direction (0701Z) by RF-linked foundations suggests that while the RF has the initiative, localized units are still struggling with non-standard supply requirements (likely specialized electronics or cold-weather gear).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Defensive Posture: The UAF 7th Corps (DSHW) remains combat-effective in the Pokrovsk sector. The successful defense of northern Pokrovsk (0721Z) demonstrates high readiness levels despite 24+ hours of high-intensity engagements.
Readiness & Morale: UAF is maintaining high cognitive resilience through synchronized national rituals (0700Z). Mobile repair teams in Kharkiv are currently prioritized for civil infrastructure to ensure military supply lines remain open during the cold snap.
Constraints: The loss of a UAV control point (0700Z) in the south highlights a persistent vulnerability to RF ELINT. Units require increased signal masking and physical hardening of command nodes.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Strategic Disinformation: The "Greenland/Trump" narrative has escalated from a geopolitical rumor to a full-scale hybrid operation. By framing a hypothetical US invasion of Greenland and EU sanctions (0704Z, 0708Z), RF IO aims to portray the US as an erratic partner, targeting European political stability.
Domestic Agitation: The targeting of Ukrainian students (0712Z) and mobilization officers (0701Z) is a deliberate attempt to degrade the Ukrainian social contract and hinder future recruitment efforts.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue localized "probing" assaults in northern Pokrovsk while launching a medium-sized UAV wave (Shahed) tonight to map the current positions of UAF's mobile AD, which may have shifted due to the Kharkiv weather/road conditions.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Utilizing the "Oreshnik" or a similar advanced ballistic system for a multi-axis strike on Kharkiv and Dnipro, exploiting the current weather-related logistical friction to overwhelm the recently deployed ballistic missile defense (BMD) assets.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
ELINT Confirmation: Monitor for unique electronic signatures associated with "Oreshnik" launch platforms (e.g., mobile TEL movements in deep rear).
BDA (Southern Sector): Confirm the extent of personnel losses at the destroyed UAV control point (0700Z) to assess impact on local situational awareness.
Weather Impact: Determine if RF forces in the Kupyansk/Kharkiv sector are preparing mechanized assets to exploit road clearing operations.
7. RECOMMENDATIONS
Node Hardening: Issue immediate directive for Southern Sector drone units to implement "split-site" operations (separating antennas from operators) to mitigate the risk from the RF 127th Division’s improved targeting.
Counter-IO: The Ministry of Defense should issue a proactive statement regarding student deferments to neutralize the "meat for the slaughter" narrative (0712Z) before the next mobilization cycle.
BMD Alert: Maintain HIGH alert status for Kharkiv AD units. The rhetorical shift toward "Oreshnik" (0728Z) often precedes a kinetic demonstration of force.
