INFRASTRUCTURE RESTORATION - KRYVYI RIH (0542Z, RBK-UA/Vilkul, HIGH): All residents in Kryvyi Rih reportedly have power, heat, and water restored following recent strikes on the Thermal Power Plant (TPP).
ENERGY GRID DISRUPTION - DNIPROPETROVSK/ZAPORIZHZHIA (0544Z, Tsaplienko, MEDIUM): Reports of power outages in parts of Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions following "enemy attacks." This partially contradicts the Dnipropetrovsk OVA report (0530Z) of a "calm night."
TACTICAL STRIKE - SECTOR UNKNOWN (0533Z, Colonelcassad, LOW): Russian "Plamya" unit claims destruction of a Ukrainian MT-LB and personnel via FPV/UAV. (UNCONFIRMED).
AIR DEFENSE - ZAPORIZHZHIA (0545Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): All-clear signal issued for the Zaporizhzhia region following earlier aerial threats.
HYBRID/IO - DISTRACTION CAMPAIGN (0541Z, Tsaplienko/Daily Mail, LOW): Continued amplification of reports regarding a "US plan to invade Greenland," corroborating the assessment in the previous sitrep of a Russian-led cognitive distraction effort.
ENVIRONMENTAL - MOSCOW (0547Z, TASS, HIGH): Record snowfall in Moscow (strongest in 146 years) may impact RF domestic logistics and personnel rotations from the rear.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Operational Picture)
The operational tempo is characterized by a "grid-war" dynamic where UAF is successfully restoring critical infrastructure while RF continues to find vulnerabilities in the regional energy distribution network.
Kryvyi Rih: Successful restoration of services (0542Z) is a significant tactical win for Ukrainian civil-military cooperation, mitigating the risk of pipe-freezing during sub-zero temperatures.
Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia: A discrepancy exists between official OVA reports of a "calm night" (0530Z) and subsequent reports of power outages (0544Z). This suggests either delayed grid failure from previous strikes (0500Z aviation bombings) or a dawn strike/sabotage that occurred after the initial OVA morning summary.
Weather: Extreme snowfall in Moscow (0547Z) and severe winter conditions in Kryvyi Rih (0535Z) are the dominant environmental constraints. This will likely slow RF ground logistics but increases the lethality of strikes against the energy grid.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Capabilities & Intentions: The RF continues to prioritize the "freeze-out" strategy. While the air raid in Zaporizhzhia has cleared (0545Z), the reports of new outages (0544Z) indicate that even small-scale or precision strikes are achieving outsized effects on a brittle winter grid.
Tactical Adaptations: The use of specialized units like the "Plamya" Volunteer Corps (0533Z) for drone-based attrition of armored personnel carriers (MT-LBs) highlights the ongoing RF focus on degrading UAF tactical mobility.
Logistics: Heavy snow in the RF rear (Moscow) may provide a temporary window of reduced Russian reinforcement flow, though rail-based logistics remain largely weather-resistant.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Infrastructure Resilience: UAF and civilian authorities have demonstrated high proficiency in rapid repair (Kryvyi Rih, 0542Z). This resilience is critical for maintaining the "rear-area" stability required to support front-line operations.
Morale & Readiness: Pro-Russian sources are actively circulating footage of forced mobilization (0553Z) to undermine UAF morale. However, the successful restoration of services in Kryvyi Rih serves as a localized morale booster for the civilian population.
Posturing: Air defense units in the South remain on high alert despite the "all-clear" (0545Z), as RF aviation activity from the 11th Guards Air Army (see 0500Z report) remains a persistent threat.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Distraction Operations: The "Greenland Invasion" narrative (0541Z) has successfully migrated from Russian state media (TASS) to Ukrainian/Western Telegram channels. This is a classic "noise injection" tactic to fracture the international information space.
Demoralization Narratives: The recirculation of Ukrainian "TCC" recruitment videos (0553Z) on pro-Russian channels aims to amplify internal Ukrainian friction regarding mobilization policy.
Belief Support: Dempster-Shafer analysis suggests a rising belief in "Information Warfare" (0.086) and "Morale Decline" (0.069), indicating these narratives are gaining traction in the digital domain.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue localized strikes on the Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia grid to reverse UAF restoration gains. Expect a surge in loitering munition activity at dusk (approx. 1400Z-1600Z) to exploit the low-visibility winter transition.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF exploits the current energy instability in Dnipropetrovsk with a multi-axis drone/missile strike targeting the secondary substations that were just brought back online in Kryvyi Rih, aiming for a permanent "black start" scenario.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Dnipropetrovsk Outage Source: Clarify if the 0544Z power outages were caused by kinetic impact, cyber-attack, or technical failure due to extreme cold.
Sarny BDA: No further updates on the Shahed vector toward Sarny (0500Z). Request visual or ELINT confirmation of interception/impact.
MT-LB Strike Location: Geolocate the video from the "Plamya" unit (0533Z) to determine which sector is facing intensified FPV/UAV pressure on logistics.
7. RECOMMENDATIONS
Grid Defense: Deploy mobile EW and SHORAD units to the immediate vicinity of recently restored substations in Kryvyi Rih.
Counter-IO: Official UAF channels should issue a proactive statement regarding the Dnipropetrovsk power status to close the information gap between the OVA "calm" report and unofficial reports of outages.
Cold Weather Gear: Expedite the distribution of thermal shielding for drone operators in the Vremivka sector, as sub-zero temperatures (confirmed by Moscow/Kryvyi Rih reports) will severely degrade battery life and operator endurance.
