GRID RECOVERY (0222Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): Electricity supply in the Zaporizhzhia region has been officially restored following the earlier massive failure.
EXPANDED KAB OPERATIONS (0206Z, UAF AF, HIGH): RF tactical aviation has expanded Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) strikes beyond Sumy, now targeting the Kharkiv (from North and East) and Donetsk regions.
KHARKIV KINETIC IMPACT (0208Z, RBK-UA/Terehov, HIGH): Confirmed drone strike in the Slobidskyi district of Kharkiv; this follows previous reports of UAVs approaching from the south.
NEW UAV VECTOR (0218Z, UAF AF, HIGH): Multiple groups of UAVs detected over Chernihiv region (near Mena), moving in a south-western direction (likely toward Kyiv or Poltava).
POKROVSK SECTOR ENGAGEMENT (0208Z, TASS, LOW): RF Ministry of Defense claims drone strikes destroyed three armored vehicles and one tank in the Krasnoarmiysk (Pokrovsk) area. (UNCONFIRMED).
HYBRID DISINFORMATION (0210Z, Opera Z, LOW): Russian-aligned channels are circulating a geopolitical narrative regarding European troop deployments to Greenland to counter US interests, likely intended to distract from regional escalations.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo has increased across the entire northern and eastern arcs.
Battlefield Geometry: The conflict remains multi-domain, with the RF focusing on air-to-ground strikes (KABs) and loitering munitions. The restoration of power in Zaporizhzhia (0222Z) significantly improves UAF logistical and C2 stability in the southern sector.
Weather/Environment: Cold weather continues to dictate the use of energy as a weapon; however, the rapid recovery of the Zaporizhzhia grid suggests high technical resilience and effective emergency protocols.
Force Disposition: RF tactical aviation is highly active along the border, utilizing standoff distances for KAB launches to avoid UAF medium-range air defenses.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Tactical Aviation: The shift to simultaneous KAB launches across Kharkiv and Donetsk (0206Z) indicates a coordinated effort to suppress UAF tactical reserves and logistics before any potential ground pushes.
UAV Strategy: The detection of UAVs over Chernihiv heading SW (0218Z) suggests a multi-axis "star" attack pattern, where drones converge on central Ukraine from the North (Chernihiv), East (Kharkiv), and South (previous report).
C2 and Organization: Russian channels report "further changes to UAF organizational structure" (0203Z, Colonelcassad). While unconfirmed, this may indicate RF intelligence is monitoring UAF rotations or the integration of new units (e.g., 426th Unmanned Systems Regiment) noted in Dempster-Shafer belief scores.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Air Defense (AD): UAF Air Force is currently managing at least three distinct air threats (KABs in the NE/E, UAVs in the North, and UAVs in the NE). The tracking of drones over Mena (0218Z) confirms that the air picture remains coherent despite regional blackouts.
Infrastructure Resilience: The 32-minute turnaround from "emergency mode" to "restored" in Zaporizhzhia (0150Z to 0222Z) suggests that either the damage was superficial/cyber-related or that bypass redundancies were successfully engaged.
Operational Readiness: UAF units in the Pokrovsk sector (Krasnoarmiysk) are under increased pressure from RF Unmanned Systems units (0208Z).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Diversionary Narratives: RF media is pushing two primary "Western failure" narratives:
The "Greenland Crisis" (0210Z), designed to portray NATO/Western internal fracturing.
Alleged Tomahawk failures in Nigeria (0221Z), aimed at undermining confidence in Western precision munitions.
Domestic Messaging: Official UA channels (OVA, Air Force) remain the primary sources of verified kinetic data, maintaining a calm and factual tone to prevent panic.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain the current UAV/KAB saturation to force UAF AD to deplete interceptor stocks. This remains a preparatory phase for the anticipated heavy missile wave (ballistic/cruise) historically occurring in the 0400Z–0600Z window.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the Chernihiv UAV vector (0218Z) as a screen for a low-altitude cruise missile strike targeting the Kyiv energy hub, exploiting the shift in focus toward the Kharkiv/Donetsk KAB strikes.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Pokrovsk Loss Verification: Confirm the status of the armored vehicles and tank allegedly hit near Krasnoarmiysk (0208Z).
UAV Intent: Determine if the Chernihiv-based UAVs are "Shahed" variants or reconnaissance assets intended to identify gaps in the Northern AD screen for future cruise missile ingress.
KAB Launch Platforms: Identify the specific airfields used for the 0206Z strikes (likely Voronezh-Malshevo or Millerovo) to enable potential "deep strike" counter-air operations.
7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS
TACTICAL: Kharkiv-based units must remain in hard cover or utilize electronic warfare (EW) "bubbles" due to the persistent drone threat in the Slobidskyi district.
OPERATIONAL: Alert Kyiv/Central AD units to the SW-bound UAV groups from Chernihiv. Expect arrival in the capital region NLT 0330Z.
STRATEGIC: Counter the "Tomahawk failure" narrative (0221Z) by highlighting the effectiveness of Western-supplied AD (as seen in the 1456Z ballistic intercept yesterday) to maintain morale.
