REGIONAL GRID COLLAPSE (0105Z, RBK-UA, HIGH): Total blackout reported across Zaporizhzhia Oblast and portions of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This follows previous kinetic damage to the Kryvorizhzhia TPP and suggests a systemic failure or successful follow-on strikes on the regional transmission network.
TACAIR ACTIVITY (0110Z, UAF AF, HIGH): Elevated activity of Russian Federation (RF) tactical aviation detected in the Eastern Sector. This indicates a potential shift from long-range strategic strikes to close-air support (CAS) or SEAD missions near the FLOT.
CIVIL RESILIENCE (0126Z, RBK-UA, HIGH): All hospitals in Zaporizhzhia are confirmed to be operating in "normal mode" (likely utilizing backup power systems), mitigating the immediate humanitarian impact of the grid failure.
DISINFORMATION ESCALATION (0109Z, Colonelcassad, LOW): Russian channels are now claiming an "ordered US invasion of Greenland" and internal Pentagon sabotage. This is an intensification of the 0032Z distraction narrative identified in the previous sitrep.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational focus has expanded from the "Deep War" strike exchange to a critical infrastructure crisis in the Southern Sector.
Battlefield Geometry: The conflict has entered a period of extreme "Grid War." The blackout in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk (0105Z) creates a massive "dark zone" along the logistics spine of the Southern Front.
Environmental Factors: Continued sub-zero temperatures amplify the impact of the 0105Z blackout, threatening municipal water systems and heating across two major administrative districts.
Force Dispositions: The activation of TacAir in the East (0110Z) suggests RF forces are attempting to exploit the cover of the nighttime blackout to reposition units or conduct strikes against UAF defensive positions.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Capabilities (Air): The RU tactical aviation activity (0110Z) likely involves Su-34 or Su-35 airframes. Given the previous focus on Kharkiv AD, this may be a coordinated effort to suppress UAF radars in the East while the Southern grid is compromised.
Intentions (Energy Warfare): The transition from localized TPP damage (Kryvyi Rih) to a full regional blackout (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk) indicates a successful campaign to induce a cascade failure of the 750kV or 330kV transmission lines.
Courses of Action:
Course 1: RF uses the blackout to mask a low-altitude "Shahed" swarm or Iskander strike, knowing that electronic notification systems and some civilian-linked AD spotting networks will be degraded.
Course 2: RF TacAir conducts precision strikes on UAF forward command nodes in the Donbas to disrupt the coordination of the "Birds of Magyar" and other high-performing UAV units.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Postures: UAF Air Force is maintaining high-readiness to counter the Eastern TacAir threat.
Resource Status: Hospitals in Zaporizhzhia (0126Z) have successfully transitioned to autonomous power, but the duration of their fuel reserves (POL) for generators is a critical vulnerability if the grid remains down >24h.
Challenges: The regional blackout will severely hamper electronic communication and civilian early-warning systems, placing a higher burden on military signal units and Starlink-dependent nodes.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
RF Hybrid Ops: The "Greenland" narrative (0109Z) has moved from a distractive news item to a "crisis" narrative (JCS sabotage). This is a classic "reflexive control" tactic aimed at making Western decision-making appear chaotic and untrustworthy to domestic and international audiences.
Sentiment: The quick confirmation of hospital stability (0126Z) by UA authorities is a vital counter-IO measure to prevent panic within the blacked-out southern regions.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF tactical aviation will conduct stand-off missile launches against UAF logistics hubs in the East within the next 2-4 hours, timed with the predicted 0400Z ballistic wave.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Exploiting the 0105Z southern blackout, RF Spetsnaz or sabotage groups attempt a cross-river operation or "gray zone" infiltration near Zaporizhzhia, banking on degraded UAF thermal/night-vision surveillance capabilities tied to fixed-site power.
Decision Point: If the grid is not restored by 0600Z, UAF Command must prioritize the diversion of military-grade fuel supplies to civilian "Invincibility Points" and hospitals in Zaporizhzhia to prevent a collapse of public order.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Blackout Causality: Confirm if the 0105Z blackout was caused by a new kinetic strike (missile/drone) or a cascade failure from the 1353Z TPP hit.
TacAir Composition: Identify the specific airframes active in the East (0110Z) and determine if they are carrying Kh-59/69 cruise missiles or KAB-series glide bombs.
Dnipropetrovsk Scope: Determine the specific districts of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast affected to assess the impact on the Pokrovsk-bound logistics rail line.
7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS
OPERATIONAL: Accelerate the deployment of mobile EW and C-UAS units to the Zaporizhzhia/Dnipro border to compensate for potential gaps in the stationary AD radar network caused by power fluctuations.
LOGISTICAL: Issue an emergency POL (Petroleum, Oil, Lubricants) release for Zaporizhzhia medical facilities to ensure the 0126Z "штатному режимі" (normal mode) can be sustained through the next 48 hours.
COUNTER-IO: Explicitly link the Greenland/JCS "sabotage" rumors to the ongoing Russian energy strikes in official press briefings to highlight the Kremlin's use of "absurdist fiction" to mask "kinetic terrorism."
