KYIV GRID RECOVERY (1500Z, RBK-UA/DTEK, HIGH): Power has been restored to 648,000 families in Kyiv following recent kinetic strikes. This significantly mitigates the critical energy crisis reported at 0953Z.
RF POSITIONAL GAINS IN SUMY (1503Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): RF "North" Group forces have reportedly occupied and are clearing new positions within Sumy Oblast. Graphic evidence suggests localized tactical successes in the border region.
SEREBRYANSKE FOREST ENGAGEMENT (1501Z, STERNENKO, MEDIUM): UAF "Strike Group 81 Apachi" is conducting high-intensity FPV drone interdiction against RF force concentrations. RF is attempting to mass troops for a renewed offensive push in this sector.
RF REAR CASUALTIES IN SVATOVE (1520Z, Mash na Donbasse, MEDIUM): Two RF-aligned police officers were killed by UAF shelling in the Svatove district, indicating sustained UAF fire control over key transit/administration nodes.
IRANIAN INTERNET BLACKOUT (1515Z, Colonelcassad, LOW/UNCONFIRMED): Iran has reportedly implemented a 48-hour internet shutdown to combat internal unrest. RF sources are attempting to link this to "Starlink" activation, framing it as a Western hybrid operation.
STRATEGIC SANCTIONS COORDINATION (1513Z, 1515Z, Zelenskiy/Official, HIGH): President Zelenskyy and GUR Chief Budanov have finalized a new synchronization strategy for international sanctions, while Defense Minister Umerov remains in active coordination with US partners.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Sumy)
Sumy Border: RF forces (Group "North") have demonstrated increased activity. The reported seizure of positions (1503Z) suggests a widening of the "buffer zone" efforts or a diversionary probe to fix UAF reserves away from Kharkiv.
Kharkiv: Remains under high ballistic threat; however, no new impacts have been reported since the successful 1456Z interception. The sector is currently in a "wait-and-see" posture regarding the predicted RF saturation salvo.
Eastern Sector (Donbas)
Serebryanske Forest: This area has emerged as a critical friction point. UAF drone units are successfully disrupting RF assembly areas (1501Z), suggesting RF intent to break the current positional stalemate in the Luhansk-Donetsk border region.
Artillery Exchange: RF MoD claims successful "Giatsint-B" strikes on UAF ammunition stores (1527Z).
Tactical Drones: RF units are increasingly using "wait-and-see" drone ambushes ("zhdun" tactics) against UAF logistics vehicles in winter conditions (1505Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Shift: RF forces are prioritizing "hunting" protocols for UAF logistics. The use of precision artillery (Giatsint-B/Krasnopol) combined with drone ambushes suggests a coordinated effort to starve forward UAF positions of ammunition.
Information Gamification: Pro-RF channels are promoting "Battle of Drones" RTS games (1500Z) to socialize the domestic RF population to drone warfare and potentially facilitate remote-pilot recruitment/propaganda.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Special Operations: SBU "Alpha" drone units are being highlighted for high-efficiency strikes (1526Z), likely part of a broader recruitment and morale campaign to reinforce the "Drone Coalition" initiative.
Infrastructure Resilience: DTEK’s rapid restoration in Kyiv (1500Z) demonstrates improved repair-cycle efficiency despite sustained RF pressure on the grid.
Digital Governance: Implementation of "e-Excise 2026" (1500Z) indicates the Ukrainian government is continuing mid-war bureaucratic modernization to stabilize the domestic economy and reduce corruption.
Information environment / disinformation
Musk/Starlink Narrative: RF propaganda (Colonelcassad) is aggressively framing Elon Musk as a direct combatant aiding unrest in Iran and Venezuela (1515Z). This is likely an attempt to justify potential future kinetic or electronic interference with Starlink assets.
Western Disarray: RF sources are amplifying "New York Times" reports regarding US/European friction over Greenland (1522Z) to project a narrative of NATO instability.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RF will likely continue localized probes in Sumy to force UAF to reallocate AD assets currently protecting Kharkiv.
MDCOA: RF "Vostok" Group in Zaporizhzhia may attempt a localized armored breakthrough while UAF ammunition supplies are suppressed by precision artillery strikes.
Energy: Kyiv's grid remains fragile; expect secondary load-shedding if the temperature drops further, despite the 1500Z restoration.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Sumy Ground Truth: Verify the depth of RF "positional gains" reported at 1503Z. Are these temporary border incursions or permanent defensive fortifications?
Serebryanske Force Composition: Identify specific RF units concentrating in the Serebryanske Forest to determine the scale of the intended offensive.
Iranian Logistics: Monitor if the Iranian internet blackout impacts the delivery schedule or technical support for RF "Shahed" variants.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
Counter-Ambush Protocols: Issue immediate warnings to logistics units in the Southern Sector regarding RF "wait-and-see" drone ambush tactics (1505Z). Mandate irregular transit times and increased use of portable EW.
Sumy Border Reinforcement: Deploy additional tactical reconnaissance (UAV) to the Sumy border to confirm RF "positional gains" and prevent the establishment of permanent firing points.
Strategic Communications: Coordinate with international partners to debunk the narrative linking Starlink to Iranian unrest, pre-empting potential RF justifications for attacking satellite infrastructure.
