STRATEGIC STRIKE CONFIRMATION (1337Z, ASTRA; 1339Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH): General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (GSUAF) officially confirmed the overnight strike on a Volgograd oil depot and multiple military targets in temporarily occupied territories (TOT).
ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE KINETIC IMPACT (1353Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH): Visual evidence confirms a dawn missile/drone strike on the Kryvorizhzhia Thermal Power Plant (TPP). This validates the previous MLCOA regarding "winter-kill" strikes targeting the heating grid.
NORTHERN FLANK GEOPOLITICAL SHIFT (1333Z, Colonelcassad; 1335Z, WarGonzo, HIGH): Finland has officially announced its withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention (Mine Ban Treaty) effective immediately. This indicates a significant hardening of the NATO-Russian border posture.
HIGH-LEVEL MILITARY COORDINATION (1353Z, RBK-UA, HIGH): President Zelenskyy held a strategic session with GUR Chief Budanov to align the President's Office on upcoming offensive operations and external pressure campaigns.
TACTICAL SECTOR PRESSURE (1336Z, Dnevnik Desantnika, MEDIUM): RF 3rd and 25th Armies have intensified offensive actions on the Slovyansk axis, specifically targeting UAF fortifications along the Siversky Donets river.
RF REAR DISRUPTION (1347Z, TASS, MEDIUM): Aeroflot reports flight disruptions at Sheremetyevo (Moscow) with plans to restore normal operations only by 0800Z on Jan 11. While officially linked to weather, the timing coincides with UAF deep strike activity.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Sumy/Chernihiv)
Sumy: RF 1427th Regiment conducted a successful FPV strike on a UAF UAV control point and material depot (1343Z). This indicates RF is prioritizing the degradation of UAF's local tactical reconnaissance and strike capabilities.
Finland/Border: Finland’s exit from the mine ban treaty suggests a shift toward defensive "anti-access" strategies on the northern border, likely increasing RF's resource diversion to the Leningrad Military District.
Eastern Sector (Donbas/Slovyansk)
Slovyansk Direction: Heavy fighting reported near the Siversky Donets. RF is attempting to leverage its 3rd and 25th Armies to compromise the defensive line before the river freezes completely.
Kupyansk: Status remains volatile; pro-RF sources (1352Z) report ongoing tactical appeals, suggesting high attrition or morale issues within local RF units despite the push.
Internal Friction (UNCONFIRMED): Hostile sources report command conflict between the UAF 225th Assault Battalion and 108th Brigade regarding personnel transfers (1330Z). CONFIDENCE: LOW. Assessment: Likely a disinformation effort to undermine UAF cohesion during mobilization shifts.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kryvyi Rih)
Kryvyi Rih: The strike on the TPP is a major blow to regional energy stability. This follows the pattern of targeting critical nodes during the arriving cold front.
Zaporizhzhia: No new kinetic updates following the loss of Zelene, but the TPP strike suggests RF is shifting focus to the logistical and utility rear of the southern grouping.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptation: RF snipers (51st Combined Arms Army) are increasingly utilized as specialized counter-UAV assets, claiming multiple "heavy drone" kills on the line of contact (1331Z). This marks a return to low-tech, precision-fire solutions to counter UAF aerial dominance.
Logistical Vulnerability: The Volgograd strike and Moscow aviation delays suggest RF rear security remains porous despite integrated AD.
Narrative Escalation: Continued Russian promotion of the "Oreshnik" system's reach (1335Z) serves as a psychological precursor to potential high-yield ballistic strikes on Western-supplied logistics hubs.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Strategic Reach: UAF is demonstrating a high "intelligence-to-strike" cycle, moving from Zelenskyy’s offensive declaration (1304Z) to confirmed deep strikes (1337Z) within 24 hours.
Command Integration: The Zelenskyy-Budanov meeting (1353Z) suggests a shift toward more integrated GUR/Presidential control over "Gray Zone" operations and asymmetric strikes inside the RF.
Information environment / disinformation
Iran Instability: Multiple sources (1332Z, 1333Z, 1349Z) report mass unrest in Iran and the use of Starlink by protesters. Implication: If the Iranian regime shifts focus to internal security, the supply of Shahed UAVs and ballistic missiles to RF may be delayed or throttled.
RF Propaganda: Pro-RF channels are highlighting US/Venezuelan tensions (1356Z) to frame Western "interference" as globally destabilizing, attempting to draw parallels with the Ukraine conflict.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RF will likely conduct BDA on the Kryvorizhzhia TPP and launch follow-up strikes to ensure total grid failure in the sector before temperatures hit -18°C.
MDCOA: Utilizing the current momentum in the Slovyansk direction, RF may attempt a rapid crossing of the Siversky Donets if UAF tactical drone capabilities are sufficiently suppressed by the recent 1427th Regt strikes.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Kryvorizhzhia BDA: Assess the exact turbine or transformer damage at the TPP to estimate repair timelines.
Siversky Donets Force Composition: Confirm the arrival of any additional RF reserves supporting the 3rd and 25th Armies.
Sheremetyevo Disruption: Determine if the flight delays were caused by electronic warfare (EW) interference or physical drone incursions.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
Utility Defense: Immediately mobilize mobile power generation and backup heating units to Kryvyi Rih to mitigate the impact of the TPP strike.
Tactical Air Defense: Deploy additional SHORAD to the Slovyansk/Siversky Donets line to counter the reported RF focus on UAF UAV control nodes.
Strategic IO: Amplify reports of Iranian civil unrest in the Russian information space to foster doubt about the reliability of RF’s external military supply chains.
