STRATEGIC DIPLOMACY – BUFFER ZONE (0602Z, Tsaplienko/Zelensky, HIGH): President Zelensky confirmed Ukraine is studying a U.S. proposal for a "buffer economic zone" between Ukrainian and Russian forces in the event of a ceasefire.
BATTLEFIELD – POKROVSK/MYRNOHRAD AXIS (0606Z, Colonelcassad, LOW): Russian "Center" Group forces claim to have captured personnel from the 2nd Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine (NSU) during clearing operations in the northern outskirts of Dymytrov (Myrnohrad). UNCONFIRMED.
AERIAL ATTACK – KRYVYI RIH (0613Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): Overnight UAV attacks on Kryvyi Rih confirmed to have damaged infrastructure; corrects previous assessment of the situation being "controlled" without impact.
AIR THREAT – ODESA (0610Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): New wave of UAVs detected in the Black Sea on a heading toward Odesa; follows previous reports of ultra-low altitude (30m) flight profiles.
INFORMATION OP – RF HISTORICAL PARALLEL (0614Z, Fighterbomber, MEDIUM): Pro-Russian mil-bloggers are promoting a narrative that the "SVO" has now equaled the duration of the Great Patriotic War (WWII), likely to frame the conflict as a generational struggle and manage domestic expectations for a long war.
Operational picture (by sector)
Eastern Sector (Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad Axis)
The reported presence of RF "Center" Group elements in the northern outskirts of Dymytrov (Myrnohrad) indicates a deepening of the Russian salient toward this critical logistical hub. The claim of capturing 2nd NSU Brigade personnel suggests intense urban or semi-urban combat on the city's periphery. If confirmed, this marks a significant westward push from the previously established lines.
Kryvyi Rih: Initial reports of "stability" (0557Z) have been superseded by confirmation of infrastructure damage (0613Z). This indicates successful penetration of local AD by RF UAVs during the overnight swarm.
Odesa: Remains under active threat. The 0610Z alert indicates the RF is maintaining a high tempo of aerial pressure, likely utilizing the sea-ingress routes to exploit the radar-masking tactics (30m altitude) noted in the previous 24h cycle.
Zaporizhzhia: Local authorities (0603Z) issued urgent alerts, likely correlating with the ongoing RF "Vostok" Group push near the Zelene/Vremyevka sector described in the previous report.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Progress: The "Center" Group is maintaining offensive momentum in the Pokrovsk direction. The focus on Dymytrov (Myrnohrad) suggests an intent to bypass Pokrovsk from the north or sever the inter-city GLOC.
UAV Doctrine: Continued use of Black Sea ingress routes for Odesa strikes (0610Z) confirms a preference for maritime approach vectors to minimize early warning times.
Logistics: While the Volgograd strike (0530Z) remains a significant blow to the rear, the RF continues to demonstrate the ability to launch synchronized UAV strikes across multiple oblasts (Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, Zaporizhzhia).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Diplomatic Maneuvering: UAF leadership and the President’s office are engaged in high-level analysis of US-led "economic buffer zone" proposals (0602Z). This suggests active contingency planning for a potential transition from high-intensity kinetic warfare to a frozen-conflict or monitored-ceasefire posture.
Defensive Resilience: Air defense units continue to engage targets over the Black Sea and inland, though the damage in Kryvyi Rih indicates a saturation point has been reached in some sub-sectors.
Information environment / disinformation
POW Narrative: The promotion of captured NSU personnel (0606Z) is intended to demoralize UAF units in the Pokrovsk sector and create the perception of a collapse in the northern Myrnohrad defenses.
Historical Framing: Equating the current conflict to WWII (0614Z) is a deliberate attempt to sanitize the "SVO" within the Russian cultural framework of the "Great Patriotic War," preparing the populace for continued mobilization and sacrifice.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued UAV strikes on Odesa port and energy infrastructure, utilizing low-altitude terrain masking. RF will attempt to consolidate gains in the northern outskirts of Myrnohrad to establish fire control over the main supply routes to the city.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A breakthrough in the Myrnohrad outskirts leading to the encirclement of UAF elements in the Pokrovsk salient, synchronized with a significant missile sortie from AB Shaykovka (referenced in the 24h report).
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Myrnohrad Frontline: Urgent need for visual confirmation (drone/satellite) of the "northern outskirts" of Myrnohrad to verify the extent of the RF "Center" Group's penetration.
2nd NSU Brigade Status: Confirm the status and location of 2nd NSU Brigade elements to validate or debunk Russian POW claims.
Kryvyi Rih BDA: Identify the specific nature of the damaged infrastructure (Energy vs. Industrial) to assess the impact on regional logistics.
IPB SUPPLEMENTARY ANALYSIS
1. BATTLEFIELD GEOMETRY
The threat to Dymytrov (Myrnohrad) (0606Z) represents a critical evolution of the Pokrovsk offensive. By pressuring the northern flank, the RF aims to force a UAF withdrawal from the forward defenses of Pokrovsk to avoid being cut off. The "buffer zone" discussions (0602Z) may be a strategic response to the difficulty of holding these salient points.
2. COGNITIVE DOMAIN
The RF comparison to WWII (0614Z) indicates a pivot away from the "short victorious war" narrative toward "existential endurance." This suggests the Kremlin does not anticipate a decisive military victory in the short term and is shifting toward a war of attrition.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
Myrnohrad Reinforcement: If the 0606Z claim of penetration is even partially accurate, mobile anti-tank and EW teams should be deployed to the northern outskirts of Myrnohrad to stabilize the 2nd NSU Brigade’s sector.
Odesa SHORAD: Shift additional MANPADS and "Geppard-style" assets to the coastal fringe of Odesa NLT 0900Z to counter the low-altitude UAV threat arriving via the Black Sea.
IO Counter-Narrative: Counter the "WWII" equivalence by highlighting the Volgograd depot strike and the mounting RU losses mentioned in UAF video releases (0618Z), emphasizing that unlike WWII, this is a war of choice being fought on the territory of the Russian rear.
