Situation Report

Situation Update (2026-01-10T05:30Z)

Key updates since last sitrep

• KINETIC IMPACT – DNIPRO INFRASTRUCTURE (0521Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH): Confirmed overnight strikes on Dnipro city have resulted in significant power supply disruptions. This aligns with the previously identified SAR spike at AB Shaykovka.
• AIR THREAT – VECTOR SHIFT (0511Z, 0527Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Russian UAVs are now active on two primary axes: one heading toward Zelenodolsk (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) and another in Southern Mykolaiv heading North-West.
• STRATEGIC NARRATIVE – BUFFER ZONE (0519Z, Tsaplienko/Zelensky, MEDIUM): President Zelensky confirmed Ukraine is reviewing a US-proposed "buffer economic zone" concept for a potential ceasefire.
• FRONT-LINE CLAIM – RIVNE (0503Z, Colonelcassad, UNCONFIRMED/LOW): Russian sources claim the 1435th Motorized Rifle Regiment has cleared Rivne (Donetsk region, near Pokrovsk axis). Claims of localized urban combat in multi-story buildings.
• CASUALTY UPDATE – ZAPORIZHZHIA (0510Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): Official reports confirm three civilians wounded following Russian strikes in the Zaporizhzhia district over the last 24 hours.

Operational picture (by sector)

Eastern Sector (Pokrovsk/Donetsk Axis)

Russian tactical channels (0503Z) claim the seizure of Rivne. This likely refers to the settlement west of Myrnohrad/Pokrovsk. If confirmed, this indicates a continued Russian effort to expand the salient toward the H-15/M-04 junction. However, the source mentions "December 7" in the text, which may indicate a typo or the recycling of delayed footage. Status: Unconfirmed; monitoring for UAF visual confirmation.

Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk)

The air threat has intensified over Zelenodolsk (0511Z), a critical node for energy infrastructure (Zelenodolsk TPP). This suggests a deliberate effort to compound the power outages already reported in Dnipro (0521Z). In the Zaporizhzhia sector, Russian pressure remains high following the breach at Zelene (Ref: Prev Daily), with recent strikes resulting in civilian casualties in the district (0510Z).

Mykolaiv/Odesa Axis

UAV activity in Southern Mykolaiv (0527Z) moving North-West suggests a potential maneuver to bypass primary Odesa air defenses or target transit infrastructure linking Mykolaiv to Central Ukraine.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

• Infrastructure Attrition: The strike on Dnipro and the vector toward Zelenodolsk confirm that the RF is prioritizing the "City-Kill" strategy against the Ukrainian energy grid. The use of multiple UAV vectors (NW and NE) is designed to split SHORAD resources.
• Tactical Disposition: The identification of the 1435th Motorized Rifle Regiment (27th Guards Division) in the Pokrovsk sector (0503Z) indicates that high-readiness motorized units are being used for urban clearing operations, suggesting a shift from "meat assaults" to more methodical infantry tactics in that sub-sector.
• Logistics Status: Despite the strike on the Volgograd oil depot (Ref: Prev Sitrep), there is no immediate degradation of front-line Russian mechanized activity, though fuel constraints may manifest in the 48-72h window.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Strategic Planning: The UAF leadership is engaged in high-level diplomatic analysis regarding the "economic buffer zone" (0519Z), indicating a parallel track of defensive operations and contingency planning for Western-led diplomatic initiatives.
• Defensive Posture: UAF Air Defense remains highly active, managing multi-vector UAV threats across Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Kherson oblasts.

Information environment / disinformation

• Psychological Operations: Continued emphasis on G7 rescheduling and US domestic politics (UFC at the White House) in Ukrainian Telegram spaces (0520Z, 0528Z) likely serves as a distraction from the kinetic pressure on the energy grid.
• Vatican Mediation (0510Z): Russian state media (TASS) is highlighting Vatican-US friction regarding Venezuela, likely an attempt to project US diplomatic overstretch and divert attention from the "Oreshnik" escalation.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

• MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued UAV/Missile pressure on the Dnipro-Zaporizhzhia energy cluster. The UAVs currently over Mykolaiv will likely attempt to strike port or rail infrastructure in the Odesa/Kryvyi Rih hinterland.
• MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A secondary wave of cruise missiles (Kh-101/555) launched from the Caspian or Black Sea to exploit the current EW/SHORAD saturation caused by the active UAV swarms.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. Rivne Verification: Immediate satellite or drone reconnaissance required to confirm the status of Rivne (Donetsk). Is the RF claim current or a delayed info-op using old footage?
2. Dnipro Grid Status: Assessment of the damage to the Dnipro power hub to determine the duration of the blackout and its impact on military rail logistics.
3. Zelenodolsk Intent: Determine if the UAV heading toward Zelenodolsk is a reconnaissance platform or a strike munition targeting the thermal power plant.

---

IPB SUPPLEMENTARY ANALYSIS

1. BATTLEFIELD GEOMETRY The Russian "Vostok" and "Tsentr" groupings are attempting to synchronize kinetic strikes in the rear (Dnipro/Zelenodolsk) with tactical advances in the front (Zelene/Rivne). By creating a "cascading failure" in the energy grid, the RF aims to degrade the UAF's ability to shift reserves by rail.

2. ENEMY COA EVOLUTION The RF is increasingly using specific unit designations (e.g., 1435th MRR) in propaganda, which may be an attempt to build "heroic" narratives for domestic consumption while mask-mapping actual unit fatigue.

//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//

1. Energy Defense Prioritization: Immediate deployment of mobile fire groups (MFG) to the Zelenodolsk perimeter to intercept incoming UAVs (0511Z).
2. Pokrovsk Counter-Recon: Units in the Pokrovsk sector must verify RF presence in Rivne to prevent a localized encirclement of UAF positions east of the settlement.
3. Strategic Comms: Counter the "Buffer Zone" narrative by emphasizing that tactical operations continue unabated, ensuring no dip in frontline morale following Zelensky's comments.

//END OF REPORT//