Situation Update (2026-01-10T04:00Z)
Key updates since last sitrep
- DEEP STRIKE – KRASNODAR KRAI (0355Z, RBC-UA, MEDIUM): Unidentified UAVs targeted an oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai. Visuals confirm emergency services responding. This follows the 0327Z Volgograd strike, indicating a coordinated wave against RF energy exports/logistics.
- TACTICAL ENGAGEMENT – SHEVCHENKO (0335Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH): RF "Sparta" battalion elements successfully targeted UAF mechanized assets (M113) and Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGV/NRTK) using FPV/dropping drones.
- DIPLOMATIC – UN SECURITY COUNCIL (0336Z, TASS, HIGH): A UNSC meeting regarding the situation in Ukraine has been scheduled for January 12.
- LOGISTICS – SHADOW FLEET FALLOUT (Ongoing, Baseline): Tensions remain critical following the US seizure of the Olina. No new maritime kinetic activity reported in the last 30 minutes, but asymmetric retaliation remains the primary threat.
- REAR SECURITY – MOSCOW (0324Z/Baseline, HIGH): Sheremetyevo (SVO) flight restrictions remain in effect until 0700Z, suggesting ongoing air defense concerns or military transit priority in the Moscow Air Defense District.
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Krasnodar)
The UAF has extended its deep-strike envelope. Following the Volgograd hit, the strike in Krasnodar Krai (0355Z) suggests a systematic attempt to paralyze the RF's southern fuel distribution network. Tactically, the situation near Zelene remains the primary concern, with RF "Vostok" groups attempting to exploit the breach toward the H-15 highway.
Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Shevchenko)
High-intensity drone warfare continues. The confirmed destruction of UAF M113 and NRTK (UGVs) in the Shevchenko area (0335Z) indicates that RF elite reconnaissance units (Sparta) are effectively utilizing FPV swarms to interdict UAF tactical mobility and robotic logistics. KAB strikes (0301Z) continue to suppress UAF defensive positions.
Central Sector (Dnipropetrovsk)
The UAV detected at 0306Z moving north through Kryvyi Rih remains a threat to central industrial infrastructure. No impact reports have surfaced, suggesting the asset may be on a loitering or reconnaissance profile to identify AD gaps.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
- Tactical Adaptation: RF forces are increasingly targeting UAF robotic systems (UGVs). This suggests an RF priority to neutralize UAF's technological advantages in casualty-reducing logistics.
- Strategic Aviation Readiness: The SAR score spike at AB Shaykovka (29.69) remains the most significant indicator of an imminent large-scale missile strike. The continued closure of SVO (0324Z) facilitates a "sanitized" flight corridor for Tu-22M3 or other strategic assets.
- Rear Vulnerability: Consecutive strikes in Volgograd and Krasnodar expose significant gaps in RF's second-tier air defense. RF will likely be forced to pull SHORAD systems (Pantsir/Tor) from the FLOT to protect refineries.
Friendly activity (UAF)
- Symmetric Deep Pressure: UAF long-range UAV units are maintaining a high operational tempo, successfully penetrating RF airspace to strike high-value economic targets.
- Tactical Attrition: Despite losses in Shevchenko (0335Z), UAF continues to employ UGVs to maintain supply lines in high-threat environments, reducing personnel exposure.
Information environment / disinformation
- UNSC Narrative (0336Z): RF state media is highlighting the upcoming Jan 12 meeting. Expect the RF to use this forum to frame the Olina seizure as "international piracy" to justify upcoming maritime or energy-sector "countermeasures."
- Internal Distraction: Brief mentions of maternity leave policy (0354Z) in RF state media suggest an effort to maintain a "business as usual" domestic facade despite deep strikes and airport closures.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued UAV/KAB strikes on UAF frontline positions in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia to prevent stabilization of the Zelene breach. UAF will likely attempt a third deep strike target (possibly Rostov or Crimea) to capitalize on RF AD confusion.
- MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A coordinated multi-axis missile strike (Kh-22/32) from the Shaykovka-based Tu-22M3s, timed with the expiration of SVO flight restrictions (0700Z) to overwhelm Ukrainian AD during the dawn transition.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- Krasnodar BDA: Confirm the specific refinery targeted and the extent of damage to distillation units.
- Shaykovka Comms: Monitor for EAM (Emergency Action Messages) or increased HF traffic from RF Long-Range Aviation command.
- UGV Vulnerability: Analyze the "Sparta" drone footage (0335Z) to determine if UAF UGVs are being tracked via thermal signatures or RF emission; adjust electronic masking protocols accordingly.
IPB SUPPLEMENTARY ANALYSIS
1. BATTLEFIELD GEOMETRY
The conflict is currently bifurcated: a high-attrition tactical fight in the Donbas/Zaporizhzhia "Wedge" and an escalating strategic exchange in the rear. The "Shevchenko engagement" indicates that the RF is successfully pushing into the tactical depth of UAF's secondary lines.
2. ENEMY COA EVOLUTION
RF is shifting from broad infrastructure strikes to targeted economic-military interdiction (interdicting UAF logistics robots while protecting their own refineries). The scheduling of the UNSC meeting (0336Z) provides the RF a 48-hour window to create "facts on the ground" or conduct a retaliatory maritime incident to bring to the council as a grievance.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
- Energy Sector Defense: UAF infrastructure managers must expect retaliatory strikes on the Kremenchuk or Odesa energy hubs within the next 8-12 hours following the Krasnodar success.
- UGV Electronic Warfare: Deploy additional portable EW jammers to UGV operating zones in the Shevchenko sector to counter "Sparta" FPV assets.
- Maritime Vigilance: Increase monitoring of RF Black Sea Fleet patrol boats near the grain corridor; the risk of a "tit-for-tat" seizure following the Olina incident is at its highest since the seizure occurred.
//END OF REPORT//
