Situation Report

Situation Update (2026-01-10T02:00Z)

Key updates since last sitrep

• AERIAL STRIKE – EAST KHARKIV (0134Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH): Confirmed launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) by Russian tactical aviation targeting eastern districts of the Kharkiv region. This marks an escalation from UAV-only loitering to heavy tactical ordinance.
• UAV VECTOR – BOHODUKHIV (0132Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH): New UAV ingress detected in the Bohodukhiv district (Kharkiv region) on a South-Western course, likely screening the western flank of Kharkiv city or seeking transit routes into the Poltava/Sumy regions.
• UAV THREAT – KRYVYI RIH (0153Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH): UAV detected in the Kryvyi Rih district (Dnipropetrovsk region), currently on an approach vector to Kryvyi Rih city.
• INFORMATION OPERATION – TASS/US DOMESTIC (0156Z, TASS, MEDIUM): Russian state media is amplifying clips of Donald Trump discussing Venezuela oil investments. Assessed as a cognitive distraction to dilute focus on current kinetic escalations.

Operational picture (by sector)

Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Bohodukhiv)

The threat profile in the Kharkiv AOR has transitioned to a multi-modal attack. While earlier reports (0117Z) focused on UAV impacts in the city, the introduction of KABs (0134Z) indicates that RF tactical aviation is now suppressing the eastern outskirts. The SW-bound UAV in Bohodukhiv (0132Z) suggests an attempt to map or saturate Air Defense (AD) assets to the west, potentially creating a "corridor" for further tactical aviation strikes.

Central Sector (Dnipropetrovsk/Kryvyi Rih)

Following confirmed kinetic impacts in Dnipro (0118Z), the RF has expanded its aero-ballistic pressure to the Kryvyi Rih district (0153Z). This indicates a deliberate effort to target the metallurgical and logistical hubs of the Dnipropetrovsk region. The concurrent threats to Dnipro and Kryvyi Rih are stretching Mobile Fire Group (MFG) resources across the oblast.

Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Odesa)

No new kinetic updates. However, the 30m altitude UAV tactics identified in Odesa (Daily Report 1432Z) and the breach at Zelene remain the primary baseline threats. The current UAV activity in the Central Sector serves to fix UAF reserves that would otherwise support the Bratskoye defensive line.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

• Tactical Evolution: The shift to KAB launches (0134Z) suggests the RF has achieved a degree of localized SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses) or is willing to risk tactical airframes to support the "Sever" Group’s objectives in Kharkiv.
• Strike Synchronization: The RF is maintaining a "rolling" strike pattern. By following the Dnipro/Kharkiv UAV waves with KABs and new Kryvyi Rih vectors, they are preventing UAF "all-clear" resets, maximizing psychological and infrastructure fatigue.
• Strategic Assets: The AB Shaykovka SAR score of 29.69 remains the highest-priority indicator. Current UAV/KAB activity is likely the "shaping" phase intended to deplete AD interceptors before a Tu-22M3 missile sortie.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• AD Management: UAF Air Force is actively tracking and reporting multiple vectors. The primary challenge is the diversification of targets (Bohodukhiv, E. Kharkiv, Kryvyi Rih) necessitating rapid displacement of SHORAD assets.
• Counter-Measures: High-intensity monitoring of the Bohodukhiv vector is required to prevent an envelopment of Kharkiv's western AD perimeter.

Information environment / disinformation

• Distraction Narratives: TASS’s focus on US-Venezuela oil rhetoric (0156Z) follows earlier mentions of Trump/Nobel Prize (0116Z). This persistent focus on US domestic/foreign policy is designed to project a "post-Ukraine" global order to domestic Russian audiences and suggest Western pivot-away.
• Strategic Framing: The "Zelensky Peace Plan" rumors (0115Z) remain unconfirmed and are likely being used to soften the domestic perception of RF kinetic escalations as "defensive" or "reactionary."

Outlook (next 6-12h)

• MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued KAB strikes on Kharkiv's eastern flank to degrade frontline fortifications. The Kryvyi Rih UAV will likely target energy infrastructure or rail nodes to disrupt the flow of Western material toward the Zaporizhzhia front.
• MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A multi-vector strike involving Tu-22M3s from Shaykovka, timed to coincide with the pre-dawn window (0400Z-0600Z), targeting Odesa and Dnipro to capitalize on AD saturation.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. KAB Target Identification: Determine if 0134Z KAB launches targeted UAF troop concentrations or civilian infrastructure in East Kharkiv.
2. Kryvyi Rih Vector: Confirm if the 0153Z UAV is a Shahed-type (loitering munition) or a reconnaissance platform (Orlan/Zala) marking targets for a follow-on missile strike.
3. Electronic Warfare (EW): Monitor for GPS jamming spikes in the Bohodukhiv-Kryvyi Rih corridor.

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IPB SUPPLEMENTARY ANALYSIS

1. BATTLEFIELD GEOMETRY The expansion of the "threat envelope" to Kryvyi Rih and Bohodukhiv indicates the RF is widening its operational aperture. This "fan-out" from the Dnipro/Kharkiv core targets suggests an attempt to find the "seams" between UAF regional air defense commands.

2. SITUATION OVERVIEW The RF is currently in a high-tempo offensive air cycle. The use of KABs—which have a shorter time-to-target than UAVs—indicates a transition to more aggressive, high-impact tactical engagements near the border.

//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//

1. Kryvyi Rih Alert: Elevate AD readiness in the Kryvyi Rih metallurgical zone. Prioritize protection of the H-11 and H-23 highway junctions.
2. Tactical Air Warning: Units in East Kharkiv must assume "active strike" posture; minimize vehicle movement and utilize overhead cover to mitigate KAB impacts.
3. Bohodukhiv Screening: Deploy MFGs to the South-Western axis of Bohodukhiv to intercept the 0132Z vector before it reaches the deep rear or loops back toward Kharkiv city.

//END OF REPORT//