Situation Report

Situation Update (2026-01-10T00:30Z)

Key updates since last sitrep

• BALLISTIC THREAT – KYIV (0001Z-0021Z, UAF Air Force/KMVA, HIGH): A 20-minute ballistic missile alert was issued for the capital following threats from the north. No kinetic impacts reported; alert was cleared at 0021Z.
• EXPANDED UAV VECTORS – CENTRAL (0005Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Shahed-type UAVs detected moving toward Pavlohrad. This indicates an expansion of the strike zone from Dnipro city to the critical logistical and industrial hub of Pavlohrad.
• PINCER UAV THREAT – KRYVYI RIH (0001Z/0014Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Kryvyi Rih is facing a multi-directional approach with UAVs vectoring from the South (0001Z) and the East (0014Z), complicating local AD engagement geometry.
• NEW NORTHERN VECTOR – KHARKIV/POLTAVA (0012Z/0018Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): UAVs entered via northern Kharkiv and are transiting west toward Poltava oblast, likely targeting transit infrastructure or energy nodes.
• REVISIONIST INFO-OP – LNR (0003Z, Colonelcassad, LOW): Release of "People of Historical Regions" video featuring LNR museum staff. Standard Kremlin narrative reinforcement regarding the 2014 conflict.

Operational picture (by sector)

Northern Sector (Kyiv)

The capital experienced a brief but high-intensity ballistic threat from the north (0001Z). Given the lack of reported impacts, this was likely a feint or a maneuver to force the activation of UAF fire control radars for RF ELINT (Electronic Intelligence) collection, potentially in preparation for the MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action) involving AB Shaykovka assets.

Central Sector (Dnipropetrovsk/Pavlohrad/Dnipro)

The RF has widened its focus. While Dnipro city remains under threat from the north (0010Z), a new group of UAVs is targeting Pavlohrad (0005Z). This suggests an intent to sever the rail and road links between Dnipro and the Pokrovsk front.

Southern Sector (Kryvyi Rih/Zaporizhzhia)

Kryvyi Rih is currently being squeezed by two distinct UAV waves: one from the southern occupied territories and one arriving from the east (likely transiting from the Zaporizhzhia/Donetsk border). This indicates a highly coordinated attempt to saturate the city's air defense umbrella.

Northeastern Sector (Kharkiv/Poltava)

A new axis of attack has opened with UAVs moving through western Kharkiv toward Poltava (0018Z). This suggests the RF is probing the "seams" between regional air defense commands.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

• Tactical Shift: The RF is increasingly using "cross-sector" flight paths. Drones launched toward the South are turning West, and drones from the East are converging on Central hubs. This suggests improved real-time C2 of UAV swarms.
• Ballistic Posturing: The ballistic alert for Kyiv (0001Z) aligns with the surge in activity at AB Shaykovka (Daily Report, SAR 29.69). Although this alert was cleared, the threat of a heavy aero-ballistic strike remains critical for the dawn window (0400Z-0700Z).
• Logistics Targeting: The pivot toward Pavlohrad indicates a shift from purely "City-Kill" infrastructure strikes to "Interdiction" strikes aimed at disrupting the flow of Western material to the Donbas.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Air Defense: Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) are actively engaged in the Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv sectors.
• C2: UAF Air Force is successfully providing real-time vectoring data, as evidenced by the rapid identification of the pincer movement on Kryvyi Rih.

Information environment / disinformation

• Historical Revisionism: The "Maxim Grigoriev" project (0003Z) is being used to flood the information space with "victimhood" narratives from the LNR. This serves to distract from the current kinetic escalation and justifies the infrastructure strikes to a domestic Russian audience.
• Economic Distraction: Russian state media (TASS) is prioritizing domestic "noise" (insurance fraud, vape regulations) to mask the scale of the ongoing aerial offensive (0005Z, 0024Z).

Outlook (next 6-12h)

• MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued multi-vector UAV harassment through 0400Z. Focus will remain on the Dnipro-Pavlohrad-Kryvyi Rih triangle to degrade industrial capacity.
• MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A coordinated ballistic/cruise missile strike originating from AB Shaykovka and the Black Sea, timed to coincide with the "all-clear" of the current drone wave when crews are most fatigued.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. Shaykovka Sortie Status: Immediate SIGINT/ELINT confirmation if Tu-22M3 aircraft have actually gone "wheels up" following the Kyiv alert.
2. Pavlohrad Damage Assessment: Monitor for kinetic impact reports in Pavlohrad; specifically targeting rail yards or storage facilities.
3. Zelene/Bratskoye Ground Truth: (Carryover from Daily Report) Confirmation of RF movement toward Bratskoye to determine if UAV strikes on Pavlohrad are direct support for a southern breakthrough.

IPB SUPPLEMENTARY ANALYSIS

1. BATTLEFIELD GEOMETRY The current UAV distribution forms a "Convergent Box" over the Dnipropetrovsk oblast. By attacking from the North (toward Dnipro), East (toward Kryvyi Rih), and South (toward Kryvyi Rih), the RF is forcing UAF to spread its SHORAD assets thin, creating gaps for potential follow-on missile strikes.

2. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Dempster-Shafer Support) The model shows a sustained belief (0.37) in "Troop Movement/Advance" in unknown regions. This correlates with the tactical pressure on Pavlohrad—if the RF intends a major ground push in the South/Donbas, isolating the Dnipro-Pavlohrad corridor is a prerequisite.

//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//

1. Redeploy SHORAD to Pavlohrad: Ensure the rail junction and industrial sectors of Pavlohrad are reinforced with mobile AA assets to counter the 0005Z vector.
2. Kyiv Readiness: Maintain "Condition Red" for ballistic interceptor crews (Patriot/SAMP-T) despite the 0021Z all-clear. The 20-minute alert was likely a range-finding or probe exercise.
3. Counter-Propaganda: Proactively release footage of UAF humanitarian efforts in the Donbas to counter the Maxim Grigoriev "People of Historical Regions" narrative before it gains traction in the Global South.

//END OF REPORT//