KYIV AERIAL INTERDICTION (2105Z - 2113Z, Air Force UAF/Klichko, HIGH): Active engagement of UAVs (Geran-type) entering Kyiv from the West and North. Explosions confirmed in the capital; AD systems are operational.
KRYVYI RIH SWARM THREAT (2127Z - 2129Z, Mykolaiv Vanyek/Air Force UAF, HIGH): A large group of approximately 10 UAVs is vectoring toward Kryvyi Rih. This represents a significant concentration of force for a single terminal objective.
DONETSK KAB STRIKES (2101Z, Air Force UAF, HIGH): Tactical aviation has launched Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) against targets in Donetsk Oblast, expanding the aerial bombardment beyond the Zaporizhzhia sector.
KHARKIV RECONNAISSANCE (2107Z, Air Force UAF, HIGH): RF reconnaissance UAVs detected north of Kharkiv. These are assessed as fire-correction assets for potential tube or rocket artillery strikes on the city.
UAV ATTRITION RATE (2114Z, Mykolaiv Vanyek, MEDIUM): Tactical reporting indicates a 75% intercept rate (3 of 4) for a specific UAV group transiting Irpin toward Kyiv.
TRUMP GEOPOLITICAL STATEMENTS (2110Z, TASS/Operativno ZSU, MEDIUM): Emerging reports of President-elect Trump’s comments regarding Venezuela and Greenland, including an "easy way or hard way" stance on Greenland and a desire to exclude Russia/China from Venezuela.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Kyiv/Chernihiv)
Kyiv Perimeter: The threat has materialized into a terminal engagement phase. Ingress is confirmed from the West (via Irpin) and the North. Air defense (AD) is currently engaging targets over the city (2113Z).
Tactical Observation: Pro-RF sources (Colonelcassad, 2128Z) are already claiming successful "arrivals" (impacts), likely as part of a rapid-cycle battle damage assessment (BDA) and psychological operation.
Central Sector (Dnipropetrovsk/Kryvyi Rih)
Kryvyi Rih: A significant swarm (approx. 10 units) is approaching. This follows earlier reports of UAVs moving toward Sofiivka (2120Z). This indicates a shift in the evening’s weight of effort toward the Dnipropetrovsk regional logistical hubs.
Eastern Sector (Donbas/Kharkiv)
Donetsk: The launch of KABs (2101Z) suggests the RF is maintaining high-tempo pressure on the Bakhmut-Pokrovsk-Kurakhove axis, likely to prevent UAF from shifting reserves to the Zelene breach in the south.
Kharkiv: The presence of spotter drones north of the city (2107Z) increases the threat level for "double-tap" or precision artillery strikes on urban infrastructure in the coming hours.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation Tactics: The RF is employing a "Saturation-Spotting" model. While UAVs saturate AD in Kyiv and Kryvyi Rih, reconnaissance assets in Kharkiv seek to identify targets of opportunity for ground-based fires.
Command & Control: The timing of the Kryvyi Rih swarm (shortly after the Kyiv engagement began) indicates a staggered launch intended to overstretch UAF mobile fire groups across Central and Northern Ukraine simultaneously.
Course of Action: Expect the RF to follow the current UAV swarm in Kryvyi Rih with a secondary wave of cruise or ballistic missiles if AD positions are successfully unmasked during this engagement.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: High activity in the Kyiv Metropolitan Area. Mobile fire groups are active in the Irpin/Western approaches.
Resource Mobilization: Civil-military figures (Sternenko, 2102Z) are issuing urgent calls for funding for "interceptor" assets, highlighting the sustained attrition of AD munitions during these nightly swarms.
Information environment / disinformation
Geopolitical Diversion: Statements by Donald Trump regarding Venezuela and Greenland (2109Z, 2119Z) are being rapidly disseminated by both Ukrainian and Russian channels.
Assessment: RF channels (TASS/Colonelcassad) are using these to frame US foreign policy as "aggressive" or "imperial," likely to create friction between Western allies and the Global South, particularly following the Olina tanker seizure.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely COA: Continued UAV impacts in Kryvyi Rih and Sofiaivka. A potential transition to missile strikes against the Kyiv energy grid once the current UAV wave concludes.
Most Dangerous COA: Use of the Kharkiv "spotter" drones to coordinate a heavy Iskander or BM-30 Smerch strike on civilian/military command centers in Kharkiv while AD is focused on the Kryvyi Rih swarm.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Kryvyi Rih Impact BDA: Immediate requirement for damage assessment at Kryvyi Rih infrastructure to determine if the swarm targeted energy or military logistics.
Kharkiv Fire Vector: Identify if the Kharkiv recon UAVs are linked to North Korean-supplied KN-23/24 batteries stationed in Belgorod.
Western Ingress Origin: Confirm if the UAVs entering Kyiv from the West (2105Z) originated from Belarusian territory or performed a deep flanking maneuver through the Zhytomyr region.
IPB ANALYSIS (SUPPLEMENT)
1. BATTLEFIELD GEOMETRY
The threat has shifted from a "Front-Line" focus (Zaporizhzhia/Donetsk) to a "Deep Strike" focus (Kyiv/Kryvyi Rih). This indicates the RF is currently in a "Softening" phase, targeting the rear to degrade the sustainability of the front-line defense.
2. ENEMY CAPABILITIES
The RF is demonstrating improved coordination between tactical aviation (KABs in Donetsk) and strategic UAV swarms. The 10-UAV swarm toward Kryvyi Rih suggests a high-density attack profile designed to overwhelm local SHORAD (Short-Range Air Defense).
3. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Based on the DS beliefs (0.15 confidence in US/Venezuela/Greenland exclusion narratives), the RF will likely use the Trump comments to overshadow the tactical situation in Ukraine in the international media space, portraying the US as "distracted" by Western Hemisphere interests.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
SHORAD REDEPLOYMENT: Move mobile fire groups from the quiet sectors of the Odesa-Mykolaiv axis toward the Kryvyi Rih-Sofiivka corridor immediately to intercept the 10-unit swarm.
KHARKIV COUNTER-RECON: Deploy EW assets to jam the 2.4/5.8GHz control frequencies of the reconnaissance UAVs north of Kharkiv to prevent fire correction.
PUBLIC SAFETY: KMVA should maintain the air raid alert for Kyiv even after the first wave, as "spotter" drones often precede a second, more kinetic wave of strikes.
