STRATEGIC ENERGY COLLAPSE: Centrenergo Total Shutdown (0611Z, Оперативний ЗСУ/Centrenergo, HIGH): All Thermal Power Stations (TPS/TES) under "Centrenergo" have ceased operation following overnight strikes. Current generation is reported at zero.
WEAPONRY SPECIFICATIONS: "Oreshnik" Performance (0602Z, STERNENKO, MEDIUM): Data from the Lviv strike indicates the ballistic missile utilized ("Oreshnik") achieved speeds of approximately 13,000 km/h (approx. Mach 10.5), confirming its hypersonic terminal phase and high-velocity IRBM characteristics.
GAS INFRASTRUCTURE: Lviv Safety Trigger (0625Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH): An automatic gas safety shutdown occurred in Rudno (Lviv region) following the missile impact, indicating either a direct hit or significant shockwave damage to the distribution network.
OFFICIAL RF NARRATIVE: "Valdai Retaliation" (0604Z, Операция Z; 0611Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH): The RF Ministry of Defense has formalized its pretext for the "Oreshnik" usage, claiming it is a response to an alleged Ukrainian attack on a presidential residence in Valdai (Novgorod region) on Dec 29. UAF sources label this a manufactured "fake" pretext.
KHARKIV SECTOR: Barvinkove Targeted (0623Z, Sinegubov, HIGH): The town of Barvinkove was subjected to heavy strikes over the last 24 hours, indicating continued pressure on the logistical approaches to the Donbas.
INFO WAR: Intercept Narrative (0600Z, НМ ДНР, UNCONFIRMED/LOW): Pro-Russian sources are circulating alleged radio intercepts of the 15th National Guard Brigade near Rodynske to suggest crumbling morale. This is assessed as a standard psychological operation.
Operational picture (by sector)
National Energy Grid: The operational status has moved from "Critical Failure" to "Systemic Collapse Risk." The zeroing of Centrenergo generation, combined with earlier reported Left Bank (Kyiv) blackouts, suggests the thermal backbone of the Ukrainian energy system is currently offline.
Western Sector (Lviv): The focus of high-velocity ballistic strikes ("Oreshnik") on Lviv confirms the intent to sever the Western energy and gas bridge. The triggering of safety systems in Rudno (0625Z) suggests cascading failures in gas pressure regulation.
Northeastern Sector (Kharkiv/Barvinkove): Kinetic activity remains high despite the cyclone. Targeting Barvinkove suggests an effort to disrupt the secondary rail/road lines supporting the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk defense complex.
Environmental: Heavy snow and -15°C temperatures persist. Road conditions are being managed by Patrol Police (0621Z), but ground mobility for heavy equipment is severely degraded.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Innovation: RF is integrating high-end ISR assets like the "Supercam S350" (0602Z) to provide real-time BDA for long-range strikes. The use of "Oreshnik" (IRBM-class) indicates a willingness to use strategic assets for tactical infrastructure denial.
Pretext Escalation: By claiming a strike on a presidential residence, the Kremlin is signaling that there are no longer "off-limit" targets within Ukraine, potentially pre-positioning for strikes on government decision-making centers in Kyiv.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Infrastructure Defense: Automated safety systems (as seen in Rudno) are successfully preventing secondary explosions/fires, but at the cost of immediate service termination.
Civil Defense: Patrol Police are actively managing the transport network to ensure military supply lines remain open despite the blizzard (0621Z).
Information environment / disinformation
Pretext Manufacturing: The RF MoD is heavily leaning into the "Valdai" narrative (0616Z) to justify the transition to IRBM/Hypersonic weaponry.
Demoralization: Increased frequency of "intercept" videos (0600Z) targeting specific brigades (15th NG) indicates a coordinated effort to link infrastructure failure to frontline collapse.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely (MLCOA): Continued focus on secondary gas nodes to exploit the "zero generation" status of the TPS network. With thermal plants down, the gas network is the only remaining heating source for urban centers; its disruption would be catastrophic in -15°C.
Most Dangerous (MDCOA): A follow-up "Oreshnik" salvo targeting the primary electrical switchyards of the remaining Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) to force a total national blackout and emergency reactor scrams.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Centrenergo Restoration Timeline: Immediate assessment needed on whether the "zero generation" is due to fuel supply (gas), physical damage to turbines, or transmission line failure.
Oreshnik Interception Data: Technical SIGINT/ELINT required to determine if AD systems (Patriot/SAMP-T) successfully tracked the 13,000 km/h terminal phase, even if no intercept occurred.
Barvinkove Damage Assessment: Determine if the strike on Barvinkove (0623Z) has neutralized the railhead used for Donbas reinforcements.
IPB ANALYSIS (SITUATION REPORT SUPPLEMENT)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield is currently defined by Technological Escalation and Systemic Vulnerability. The introduction of the "Oreshnik" removes the assumption of "safe" rear areas in Western Ukraine, while the Centrenergo shutdown places the civilian population in a state of immediate survival risk due to the -15°C cyclone.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities: RF has demonstrated the ability to conduct synchronized strikes using Mach 10+ weaponry that bypasses conventional mid-tier Air Defense.
Intent: The objective is "Total Grid Lethality"—not merely degrading power, but ensuring the cessation of all thermal generation during a peak weather event to maximize structural damage (frozen pipes/unusable housing).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Posture: UAF is in a defensive "Resilience Mode." The focus is on protecting the remaining NPP generation and preventing the gas network from suffering a similar "zero-flow" event as the TPS network.
Constraints: AD density is insufficient to cover both the frontline and every piece of critical infrastructure against hypersonic threats.
4. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Timeline: Within 6 hours, the "thermal inertia" of multi-story buildings in Kyiv and Lviv will expire. Without power restoration or emergency heating, the humanitarian situation will transition to a mass casualty event (hypothermia).
Tactical: RF may attempt localized ground pushes in the Kharkiv/Donbas sector to exploit the potential distraction caused by the national energy emergency.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
DECENTRALIZED HEATING: Pivot all available logistics to distribute solid-fuel heating and industrial-grade generators to urban high-rise districts. The TPS network will not return to full capacity within the 12-hour "freeze window."
GAS NODE DEFENSE: Re-deploy mobile SHORAD and Electronic Warfare (EW) units to protect the "safety valves" and compressor stations of the gas network. Following the Rudno event, these are the primary targets for the next 6 hours.
STRATEGIC SIGNALING: Publicly release any available data on the "Oreshnik" flight path to international partners to highlight the IRBM-class threat, pressuring for advanced high-altitude interceptors (THAAD/Aegis Ashore integration).
