STRATEGIC KINETIC: Kalibr Missile Launches Confirmed (2350Z-2357Z, PS ZSU/Tsaplienko, HIGH): Multiple sources confirm the launch of Kalibr cruise missiles from the Black Sea. Initial tracks show missiles transiting the Dudchany area toward Kryvyi Rih.
STRATEGIC KINETIC: Ballistic Launch from Bryansk (2357Z, Nikolaevsky Vanek, MEDIUM): Incoming ballistic threat detected originating from the Bryansk region (RF), likely targeting the Kyiv or Northern sectors.
KINETIC (AIR): Sustained Kyiv Saturation & Fires (2343Z-2349Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): New waves of UAVs have caused additional fires in the Darnytskyi district (garages) and significant damage to high-rise residential buildings across multiple districts. Emergency medical services are responding to high call volumes.
CBRN: Radiation Levels Normal in Lviv (2345Z-2352Z, RBK-Ukraine/Colonelcassad, HIGH): Despite the intensity of strikes and "plasma glow" reports, local Ukrainian authorities and Russian military bloggers confirm radiation levels in Lviv Oblast remain within normal parameters.
TACTICAL KINETIC: Loss of Ukrainian Artillery (2344Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Visual evidence indicates the destruction of a Ukrainian 2S22 "Bohdana" self-propelled howitzer in the Zaporizhzhia direction by the RF 305th Guards Artillery Brigade.
AIR DOMAIN: Expansion of UAV Vectors (2338Z, PS ZSU, HIGH): UAVs detected in Vinnytsia Oblast heading toward Pogrebyshche, indicating a widening of the saturation area beyond Kyiv.
Operational picture (by sector)
Western Axis (Lviv/Oblast): The sector remains under extreme psychological and kinetic pressure. While the Russian information space continues to amplify "Oreshnik" IRBM claims (2341Z, Operation Z), local BDA is ongoing. The primary operational impact is the continued gas supply disruption, though RF sources are now expressing doubts regarding the total destruction of the massive Stryi UGS (2343Z, NgP Razvedka).
Northern Axis (Kyiv/Chernihiv): Kyiv is currently the focal point of a multi-domain strike. High-speed targets are reported entering Chernihiv airspace (2357Z, PS ZSU), coinciding with ballistic launches from Bryansk. This represents a dangerous transition from UAV saturation to high-velocity kinetic impacts.
Central Axis (Kryvyi Rih/Dnipro): This sector is the likely target of the naval-launched Kalibrs (2357Z, Nikolaevsky Vanek). This follows earlier ballistic impacts, confirming a "triple-tap" strategy aimed at the total failure of city hydraulic/heating infrastructure during sub-zero temperatures.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Black Sea): RF naval assets in the Black Sea have transitioned to active launch status. On the ground, localized RF successes in counter-battery fire have resulted in the loss of at least one high-value UA artillery asset (2344Z).
IPB ANALYSIS
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield geometry has shifted from a focused infrastructure attack to a coordinated, nationwide multi-vector offensive. The use of UAVs as a "fix" for Air Defense (AD) assets in Kyiv is being followed by high-speed cruise and ballistic missiles targeting both the capital and critical industrial nodes in the center (Kryvyi Rih). The radiation checks in Lviv suggest a high level of concern regarding the potential for unconventional or high-yield experimental payloads, though results are currently negative.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities/Tactics: RF is demonstrating synchronized launch capabilities from three vectors: Sea (Black Sea Kalibrs), Air (UAV saturation), and Land (Bryansk ballistics). The use of the "Oreshnik" narrative (2338Z, Colonelcassad) continues to serve as the primary psychological operation, regardless of the actual munition used.
Intent: The immediate intent is to overwhelm the UA AD network to ensure the success of the Kalibr and Bryansk-launched ballistic strikes. The mid-term intent remains the humanitarian collapse of Kryvyi Rih and Lviv through total energy/heating interdiction.
Logistics/Sustainment: The rapid succession of strikes suggests that the ammunition stocks prepared at the 260th GRAU (identified in previous reports) are being utilized at a high tempo.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
AD Status: Under extreme stress. The transition from "mopeds" (UAVs) to "high-speed targets" (missiles) in the same corridors (Chernihiv-Kyiv) tests the reload rates and engagement logic of integrated AD systems.
Tactical Losses: The loss of a "Bohdana" howitzer in Zaporizhzhia (2344Z) indicates successful RF ISR-strike loops in the tactical depth, potentially utilizing Orlan/Zala UAVs for spotting.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Russian Propaganda: Intensifying focus on the "Oreshnik" strike. Propagandists are mocking UA/Western AD effectiveness (2341Z, NgP Razvedka) to erode domestic and international confidence in UA defensive capabilities.
Hybrid Ops: TASS reporting on visa-free travel with African nations (2333Z) serves as a "normalcy" distractor, attempting to project Russian diplomatic strength amidst the escalation.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain the UAV siege of Kyiv to prevent AD units from assisting the Central Axis. The Kalibrs currently in flight will strike Kryvyi Rih within 20-40 minutes, targeting the "Gorvodokanal" or auxiliary power substations.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): The Bryansk ballistic launch (2357Z) may be a decoy or a suppression strike against Patriot/SAMP-T batteries in the Kyiv region, intended to open a corridor for a much larger saturation of high-precision missiles targeting the capital's central heating nodes.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Critical. The next 2 hours are the high-threat window for Kalibr and ballistic impacts. Stabilizing the situation in Kyiv (firefighting/casualty management) while simultaneously managing the influx of sea-launched cruise missiles in the South/Center is the current operational priority.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Munition Verification: Confirm if the Bryansk launch involves Iskander-M or a different ballistic class.
BDA Zaporizhzhia: Determine if the "Bohdana" loss was isolated or part of a larger suppression of UA artillery in the sector.
Naval Disposition: Monitor for a second wave of Kalibr launches; determine the number of RF vessels currently in the "launch ready" state in the Black Sea.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
AIR DEFENSE: Prioritize engagement of the high-speed targets over Kyiv/Chernihiv; if AD density allows, shift mobile SHORAD units to the Darnytskyi and Dniprovskyi districts to mitigate UAV "leakage" while larger systems focus on ballistics.
CIVIL DEFENSE: Issue immediate "Take Cover" orders for Kryvyi Rih and surrounding districts due to inbound Kalibrs (passing Dudchany at 2357Z).
GAS INFRASTRUCTURE: Despite the radiation being normal, maintain the "islanding" protocol for Lviv's gas network until a full technical BDA of the pumping stations is completed.
