C2/ADMINISTRATIVE (NATIONAL): Regional Leadership Appointments (1801Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH): President Zelenskyy has appointed new heads for the Military Administrations (OMA) of Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Chernivtsi, and Vinnytsia Oblasts. The appointment in Dnipropetrovsk is critical given the current infrastructure crisis in Kryvyi Rih.
KINETIC (CRIMEA): Strategic Logistical Strike (1823Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH): Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) successfully conducted a kinetic strike on a fuel and lubricants (POL) rail echelon at the "Hvardiiske" oil depot in occupied Crimea.
THREAT ASSESSMENT (STRATEGIC): US Embassy Warning (1811Z/1813Z, RBK-Ukraine/Alex Parker, HIGH): The US Embassy in Kyiv has issued a security alert regarding a "significant Russian strike" possible in the coming days, corroborated by increased Russian information operations.
KINETIC (LYMAN): Russian Offensive at Sviatohirsk (1801Z, Colonelcassad/Rybar, MEDIUM): Pro-Russian sources report significant offensive activity aimed at regaining ground lost in 2022, specifically targeting the Sviatohirsk area.
LOGISTICS (NATIONAL): Education/Administrative Shutdown (1820Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): Schools across Ukraine are transitioning to remote format until January 19 due to the severe weather emergency and infrastructure strain.
KINETIC (REAR): Logistical Interdiction (1814Z, General Staff UAF, HIGH): UAF confirmed strikes on several Russian logistical and maintenance hubs in occupied territories, aiming to disrupt RU sustainment during the winter freeze.
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Axis (Dnipropetrovsk/Crimea): The appointment of a new Dnipropetrovsk OMA head (1801Z) suggests a direct response to the "city-kill" threat in Kryvyi Rih. The strike on the Hvardiiske fuel echelon (1823Z) significantly degrades the RU Black Sea Fleet's logistical sustainment and mechanized fuel supplies in the southern theater.
Eastern Axis (Lyman/Donbas): A new point of friction has emerged near Sviatohirsk (1801Z), where RF forces are attempting to exploit UAF focus on Pokrovsk to regain lost terrain. In the Pokrovsk sector, UAF continue to target RU repair and logistics units to maintain defensive parity.
Northern Axis (Kyiv/Border): Ground mobility remains severely restricted. The government has formalized a transition to remote operations (1820Z, 1827Z) to reduce energy load and civilian movement during the weather peak.
International/Syria (Aleppo): Significant escalation in Aleppo (1813Z) with HTS/SNA militants seizing portions of the Kurdish quarter (Ashrafiya). This may draw RU aviation or PMCs away from the Ukrainian theater if the Syrian regime's C2 continues to collapse.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aero-Ballistic Threat: The US Embassy's warning (1811Z) aligns with previous indicators of a massed strike. Russian milbloggers (1814Z) are amplifying this narrative, likely to maximize psychological impact before the kinetic phase.
Tactical Course of Action (Lyman): Russia is shifting focus toward Sviatohirsk, possibly attempting a pincer movement to threaten the northern flank of the Donbas defense line while weather prevents large-scale UAF maneuver.
Information Hybrid Ops: RU channels are heavily promoting the US Senate's restriction on military force (1806Z) and Venezuelan amnesties (1809Z) to project a narrative of Western retreat and US diplomatic pivot.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Deep Strike Operations: The UAF continues to prioritize the "logistical hunger" strategy, as evidenced by the successful strike on the Hvardiiske fuel train (1823Z).
Administrative Stabilization: The OMA leadership changes in Poltava and Vinnytsia (rear logistical hubs) and Dnipropetrovsk (frontline support) indicate a coordinated effort to harden regional C2 against the dual threat of weather and missile strikes.
Information environment / disinformation
Propaganda Pivot: Russian sources (1825Z) are weaponizing Lithuanian legal actions against Russian dissidents (Volkov/Benyash) to demoralize the Russian opposition and portray the West as an unreliable partner for "anti-Putin" elements.
Panic Induction: RU channels are sharing "doctored" documents (1814Z) to heighten fear regarding the imminent strike, specifically labeling it a "night of retribution."
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Strategic Strike): HIGH CONFIDENCE. A massed missile/drone strike targeting the energy grid is expected, likely between 0000Z and 0400Z to coincide with peak temperature lows and the US Embassy's warning window.
MDCOA (Lyman Breakthrough): MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE. RF forces attempt a rapid infantry-led push into Sviatohirsk to seize high ground before UAF can redeploy reserves through the snowstorm.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
SVIATOHIRSK PENETRATION: Confirm current Line of Control (LoC) around Sviatohirsk. Are RF forces utilizing the frozen terrain to cross water obstacles? (P1)
HVARDIISKE BDA: Assess the volume of POL destroyed in the Crimea strike. Will this impact RF air sorties from Crimean airbases? (P2)
OMA TRANSITION: Monitor the hand-over period for the four new OMA heads. Ensure there is no gap in emergency response coordination in Dnipropetrovsk. (P2)
IPB ANALYSIS (Updates Only)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield geometry is being redrawn by the Northern Deep Freeze. While mechanized movement is stalled in the north, the ground in the Lyman sector (Sviatohirsk) may be reaching a "frozen solid" state that allows for limited infantry/light vehicle maneuver not possible in the mud of December.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Logistics: The loss of the Hvardiiske fuel echelon (1823Z) creates a tactical "fuel gap" in Crimea. Expect RU to prioritize the protection of the Kerch Bridge and alternative ferry routes in the next 24 hours.
Adaptation: Russia's focus on Sviatohirsk (1801Z) suggests a shift in target selection toward areas with symbolic and tactical value that were lost in the 2022 counter-offensives.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Defensive Posture: UAF is transitioning to a "Shelter-in-Place" administrative stance for non-essential personnel (1820Z).
Logistical Interdiction: UAF G-2/G-3 are successfully synchronizing deep strikes (Crimea) with rear-area interdiction (occupied territories) to capitalize on RU logistical friction caused by the storm.
4. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Strategic: The "Strike Window" is now open. The US Embassy alert serves as a high-confidence tripwire.
Tactical: The Lyman sector will likely see the highest kinetic intensity over the next 12 hours as RU milbloggers prepare the info-space for "successes" in Sviatohirsk.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
AIR DEFENSE ALERT: Maintain 100% readiness for all mobile AD groups in the Kyiv-Dnipropetrovsk corridor. The strike is likely imminent. (Priority: CRITICAL)
FUEL CONSERVATION: Given the strike on RU fuel assets, anticipate RU retaliatory strikes on Ukrainian POL storage. Disperse fuel stocks in small-batch mobile tankers. (Priority: HIGH)
SVIATOHIRSK REINFORCEMENT: Deploy thermal-capable drone units to the Lyman sector to monitor RU infantry movements through the woods/frozen terrain around Sviatohirsk. (Priority: MEDIUM)
