Confirmed RF Penetration into Dnipropetrovsk (0916Z, MoD Russia/TASS, HIGH): The Russian Ministry of Defense and state media have confirmed the "liberation" of Bratske. Visual evidence (video footage) of the capture has been released. This represents a confirmed tactical breach of the Dnipropetrovsk administrative border.
Capture of Podoly, Kharkiv Region (0900Z, MoD Russia/Voenkor Kotenok, HIGH): Russian forces have hoisted flags in Podoly, a key settlement near Kupyansk-Uzlovyi. This indicates an expansion of the Russian foothold on the eastern bank of the Oskil River following the hospital pocket neutralization.
Deep GUR Tactical Raid in Zaporizhzhia (0924Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA/GUR, HIGH): Ukrainian GUR "Bratstvo" unit successfully conducted a special operation 27km behind enemy lines in the Zaporizhzhia sector.
Dnipro Infrastructure Collapse (0915Z, ASTRA, HIGH): A large-scale blackout following Russian kinetic strikes has forced the closure of schools and the replacement of electric transport with buses in Dnipro.
UK Delivery of Advanced SHORAD (0902Z, DeepState, MEDIUM): The United Kingdom has transferred "Raven" air defense systems and "Gravehawk" prototypes to Ukraine to bolster short-range air defense (SHORAD) capabilities.
US Legal Escalation in Maritime Domain (0907Z, ASTRA, HIGH): The US Department of Justice is preparing criminal charges against the crew of the Bella 1 (formerly Marinera), signaling a shift from physical interdiction to legal prosecution of the "Shadow Fleet."
Operational picture (by sector)
Kharkiv/Kupyansk Axis:
Status: Deteriorating. The capture of Podoly (0900Z) suggests RF forces are successfully exploiting the chaos following the Kupyansk hospital engagement. The loss of Podoly threatens the rail-hub at Kupyansk-Uzlovyi.
Enemy Activity: Russian forces are consolidating positions in Podoly and attempting to push further into the Kupyansk urban periphery.
Dnipropetrovsk/Donetsk Axis:
Status: Critical. The fall of Bratske (0916Z) is now confirmed by the RF MoD.
Tactical Geography: Russian security sources report that seizing Bratske expands a "buffer zone" on the western bank of the Gaichur River (0927Z). This move aims to isolate southern Donetsk from Dnipropetrovsk logistics.
Infrastructure: Massive grid failure in Dnipro (0915Z) is degrading the rear-area support for the entire eastern front.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
UAF Counter-Activity: The GUR raid 27km into the rear (0924Z) demonstrates UAF’s continued ability to conduct high-risk asymmetric operations despite RF air superiority.
Air Defense: RF claims to have intercepted 18 Ukrainian UAVs over Kherson (0858Z), indicating a high volume of UAF reconnaissance/strike sorties in the south.
Northern/Western Axis:
Environmental: Severe winter weather has begun impacting logistics. Rescue operations are active on the Kyiv-Chop highway due to heavy snowdrifts (0919Z). This will likely slow the movement of Western aid from the Polish border.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action: RF is prioritizing the expansion of the Gaichur River bridgehead to threaten the H-15 highway and isolate the Pokrovsk-Zaporizhzhia corridor.
Tactical Adaptation: The use of "flag-hoisting" videos (Podoly, Bratske) indicates a coordinated psychological operation to signal momentum to both domestic audiences and UAF defenders.
Maritime: Pro-Russian channels (Rybar/Archangel Spetsnaz) are actively tracking and naming other tankers allegedly "next" for US seizure (0901Z), preparing the information space for potential Russian naval "counter-inspections."
Friendly activity (UAF)
Modernization: Integration of UK-supplied Raven and Gravehawk systems (0902Z) is critical for countering the high volume of RF drone strikes reported in Kherson and Dnipro.
Rear-Area Resilience: Dnipro municipal authorities are pivoting to bus-based transport to maintain mobility during the blackout (0915Z).
Information environment / disinformation
"Greenland Trade" Narrative: Russian-linked channels are amplifying a Politico rumor regarding Europe trading Greenland to the US for Ukrainian security (0909Z). This is assessed as a "wedge" operation designed to portray Ukraine as a commodity in Western geopolitical bargaining.
Economic Warfare: RF state media continues to frame US Venezuelan oil maneuvers as "theft" (0913Z) to align Global South sentiment against Western sanctions.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RF will attempt to push north from Bratske to broaden the Dnipropetrovsk penetration before the heavy snow front fully grounds tactical UAVs.
MDCOA: RF may launch a coordinated "double-tap" missile strike on Dnipro's remaining energy nodes while municipal services are already strained by the blackout and winter storm.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Gaichur River Depth: Determine the exact size of the Russian force across the Gaichur River near Bratske.
Kupyansk-Uzlovyi Integrity: Assess if Podoly’s fall has compromised the main UAF defensive line protecting the Kupyansk railway junctions.
UK System Deployment: Identify the operational status of "Raven" systems—specifically if they are being prioritized for Dnipro's critical infrastructure or front-line drone defense.
IPB ANALYSIS
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield has expanded into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Bratske), significantly complicating the Ukrainian defensive geometry. The operational environment is now bifurcated by a severe winter storm in the North/West and a critical infrastructure collapse in the East (Dnipro).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
The RF "Vostok" and "Zapad" groups are demonstrating improved coordination, successfully transitioning from urban attrition (Kupyansk) to rapid territorial seizure (Podoly, Bratske). The focus on the Gaichur River suggests a strategic intent to create a permanent buffer zone that severs the internal lines of communication between the Donbas and the Dnieper River.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
UAF remains tactically proficient (GUR deep raid), but the operational-level strain of defending an expanding front while the power grid fails is reaching a critical point. The arrival of UK SHORAD is a vital injection of capability, but its impact will be limited if the energy infrastructure it protects is already non-functional.
4. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Logistics: The Kyiv-Chop highway blockage (0919Z) will create a 12-24h delay in the delivery of spare parts and munitions to the front.
Ground Operations: Expect RF to use the "drone-free" weather window to move heavy equipment across the Gaichur River, as UAF's aerial observation will be degraded by snow and fog.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
Interdict Gaichur Crossings: Prioritize long-range artillery and HIMARS strikes on any pontoon or bridge infrastructure near Bratske to prevent RF from reinforcing the western bank.
Prioritize SHORAD for Dnipro: Deploy the newly arrived Raven/Gravehawk systems to protect Dnipro's transit hubs and repair crews to ensure the city remains viable as a logistics base.
Winter Mobility: Mobilize additional engineering units to the Kyiv-Chop and M-03 corridors to ensure the flow of Western aid is not choked by the storm.
