Massive Overnight UAV Offensive (0602Z-0610Z, Ukrainian Air Force/RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): Confirmed Russian Federation (RF) launch of 97 strike UAVs (predominantly "Shahed" variants). Ukrainian Air Defense (PvK) destroyed or suppressed 70 of 97 targets. This represents a significant saturation effort compared to the 31 kills reported in the previous 2-hour window.
Zaporizhzhia Energy Recovery (0604Z-0607Z, Zaporizhzhyaoblenergo/ASTRA, HIGH): Electricity and heating services have been fully restored to Ukrainian-controlled Zaporizhzhia and its oblast. All municipal boilers are reported operational.
Dnipropetrovsk Grid Instability (0558Z-0601Z, Dnipro OVA/Vilkul, HIGH): Portions of the oblast remain without power. The situation in Kryvyi Rih is categorized as "difficult but controlled," indicating that while stabilization is underway, the infrastructure damage from overnight strikes remains acute.
UAF Counter-Strike on Krasnodar (0602Z, RF MoD/TASS, MEDIUM): RF Ministry of Defense claims to have intercepted 11 Ukrainian UAVs over Krasnodar Krai within a 2-hour window. This indicates an expansion of UAF deep-strike targeting into the Kuban region, likely aimed at RF logistical hubs or airbases supporting the Black Sea/Azov axes.
US Policy Disinformation (0621Z, Operatsiya Z, UNCONFIRMED/LOW): Pro-Russian sources are circulating claims that the US has ordered withdrawal from 66 international organizations. This is likely an information operation aimed at projecting US isolationism and destabilizing international support frameworks.
Operational picture (by sector)
Dnipropetrovsk / Kryvyi Rih Sector:
Infrastructure Status: Degraded. Power outages persist (0558Z). The "difficult but controlled" status in Kryvyi Rih suggests that emergency bypass measures are in place, but the primary grid remains vulnerable to follow-on strikes.
Logistics: Pavlohrad remains a critical node. The volume of 97 UAVs launched overnight aligns with the SAR spike (18.95) noted at the 260th GRAU Arsenal, confirming the surge was utilized for this saturation campaign.
Zaporizhzhia Sector:
Utilities: Full restoration achieved (0604Z). This suggests that the strikes in this sector were less effective or that repair crews were prepositioned.
Ground Activity: Pro-Russian sources report ongoing fighting in the Primorsk direction (0604Z). This suggests the RF is attempting to exploit the distraction of infrastructure strikes to improve tactical positioning on the southern coastline.
RF Rear / Krasnodar:
UAF Offensive: 11 UAVs intercepted over Krasnodar (0612Z). This confirms the UAF is maintaining a high-tempo offensive into the RF's strategic depth to force the redistribution of RF air defense assets away from the front line.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Course of Action: The RF is employing a "saturation and exhaustion" model, using high volumes of UAVs (97 in a single wave) to deplete Ukrainian interceptor stocks and identify gaps in the AD umbrella over Dnipropetrovsk.
Information Operations: Russian mil-bloggers (Rybar, Colonelcassad) are heavily promoting a CGI-based hypothetical US military operation in Venezuela (0604Z). This is a clear attempt to distract the domestic Russian audience and international observers from the maritime losses (seizure of the Marinera) and to frame US foreign policy as "interventionist."
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: Effective but strained. A 72% intercept rate (70 of 97) against a massed swarm is high, but the 27 successful impacts or electronic suppressions were sufficient to cause ongoing power outages in the Dnipro region.
Deep Strike: The UAF has pivoted its drone campaign toward the Krasnodar region, likely targeting fuel storage or aviation logistics to disrupt the supply chain for KAB strikes in the Donbas.
Information environment / disinformation
Narrative Shaping: The Houthi Politburo’s comments on Venezuela (0619Z) and the spread of unconfirmed reports regarding US withdrawal from international organizations (0621Z) indicate a coordinated hybrid effort to frame the US as a destabilizing global actor.
Internal RF Suppression: Reports of an FSIN veteran being fined in Arkhangelsk for "anti-war" religious citations (0619Z) highlight ongoing domestic crackdowns on dissent within the RF security apparatus.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RF will likely pause UAV operations to conduct Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) on Dnipropetrovsk infrastructure before initiating a second wave, potentially involving Iskander-M or Kinzhal missiles to target identified gaps in the AD coverage.
MDCOA: RF may attempt to launch a retaliatory strike against UAF drone launch sites in the Odesa/Mykolaiv region to halt the pressure on Krasnodar.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Krasnodar Targets: Identify the specific coordinates of the 11-UAV strike in Krasnodar to determine if the target was the Port of Novorossiysk or nearby airfields.
260th GRAU Expenditure: Determine if the 97-UAV wave has exhausted the staged munitions from the 260th GRAU or if a missile component remains staged.
Primorsk Tactical Change: Verify RF claims of gains in the Primorsk direction via satellite imagery to assess if this is a minor probe or a serious push to widen the land bridge.
IPB ANALYSIS
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield is currently defined by a "surge vs. surge" dynamic: the RF is surging UAV volume (97 units) against the Dnipro industrial triangle, while the UAF is surging deep strikes into Krasnodar Krai. Zaporizhzhia has successfully weathered the initial energy crisis, shifting the critical infrastructure vulnerability back to Dnipropetrovsk.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Intentions: To force a humanitarian crisis in Kryvyi Rih and Dnipro during the winter peak while simultaneously creating narrative diversions via Venezuelan "crisis" simulations.
C2: The rapid transition from staging at the 260th GRAU to the 97-UAV launch indicates highly responsive logistics-to-strike coordination.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Posture: UAF is increasingly relying on EW to "suppress" drones (indicated by the "destroyed/suppressed" terminology in the 0602Z report). This suggests a shift toward saving kinetic interceptors for high-value missile targets.
4. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Decision Point: If Dnipropetrovsk power remains out for >12h, industrial output for frontline munitions will be significantly impacted.
Timeline: Expect a potential missile sortie between 2100Z and 0300Z (night of Jan 8-9) as the RF seeks to exploit current grid instability.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
Prioritize Krasnodar BDA: Immediately assess the effectiveness of the 11-UAV strike on Krasnodar to determine if the RF's southern logistics have been disrupted.
EW Surge in Dnipro: Reallocate tactical EW systems from the stable Zaporizhzhia sector to the Kryvyi Rih-Pavlohrad axis to counter the high-volume drone threat without depleting SAM stocks.
Counter-Disinfo: Strategic Communications (StratCom) should immediately debunk the "US withdrawal from 66 organizations" claim to prevent panic in international partner networks.
