Zaporizhzhia Infrastructure Restoration (0503Z, Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH): Official confirmation from the Regional Military Administration (OVA) that all municipal boiler houses are now electrified and operating in "standard mode." This mitigates the immediate humanitarian risk from previous grid failures.
Vremivka Sector UAV Engagement (0500Z, Voin DV, MEDIUM): Video evidence indicates UAV operators from the Russian 5th Army (Vostok Group) are actively targeting UAF personnel and equipment in the Vremivka salient.
US Sanctions Political Shift (0505Z, STERNENKO/Graham, MEDIUM): Reports indicate Donald Trump has provided "green light" support for a bipartisan sanctions package against the RF, signaling a hardening of the US legislative stance.
RF Mass UAV Interception Claim (0516Z, ASTRA, HIGH): The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have intercepted 66 Ukrainian UAVs overnight. This validates the scale of the UAF strategic deep-strike campaign mentioned in previous reports.
Zaporizhzhia Civilian Casualties (0510Z, ZOVA, HIGH): Despite infrastructure stabilization, five civilians were wounded in the Zaporizhzhia district over the last 24 hours due to ongoing kinetic strikes.
Visual Confirmation of Tanker Seizure (0515Z, Colonelcassad, LOW): Footage allegedly shows the seized Russian tanker Marinera under escort by a US patrol vessel. UNCONFIRMED: Discrepancies between text claims and visual identifiers require further verification.
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Vremivka):
Zaporizhzhia City: Grid stabilization is complete (0503Z); however, the "heavy night" described by the RMA (0524Z) suggests continued standoff bombardment.
Vremivka Salient: Russian forces are intensifying the use of FPV and reconnaissance-strike UAVs to disrupt UAF tactical movements. This represents a localized shift toward unmanned-led attrition (0500Z).
Maritime Domain (Atlantic/Black Sea):
Atlantic Interdiction: The escort of the Marinera (0515Z) by US forces confirms the transition of the "Shadow Fleet" issue from legal dispute to physical interdiction. RF naval response remains absent in the immediate vicinity of the seizure.
RF Rear Area (Strategic Depth):
Air Defense Activity: The reported destruction of 66 UAVs (0516Z) suggests a high state of alert across Russian western border oblasts and Crimea. The UAF is successfully forcing the RF to expend high-end AD interceptors against lower-cost attrition assets.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Course of Action: The RF is leveraging specialized UAV units (5th Army) to maintain pressure in sectors where the weather has hampered traditional mechanized maneuver.
Strategic Course of Action: Continued focus on Zaporizhzhia’s periphery suggests an intent to degrade the "buffer zone" around the city despite the failure to keep the heating grid offline.
Information Focus: Russian state media (TASS) is currently prioritizing reports on US internal instability (Salt Lake City shooting, 0521Z) and distractionary human-interest stories (0500Z) to dilute domestic coverage of the Marinera seizure and the massive UAV wave.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Infrastructure Defense: Successful rapid-repair cycle in Zaporizhzhia (0503Z) demonstrates effective civil-military emergency protocols under fire.
Strategic Strike: The 66-UAV wave represents a sustained, high-volume effort to penetrate RF air defenses and likely target the staging areas associated with the 260th GRAU Arsenal ammunition surge noted in the previous daily report.
Information environment / disinformation
Sanctions Narrative: The circulation of the Graham/Trump sanctions "green light" (0505Z) is being used by Ukrainian channels to bolster morale and signal long-term Western commitment.
Maritime Deflection: RF-aligned channels are attempting to frame the Marinera seizure as "piracy," though the lack of a kinetic RF Navy response undermines this narrative of strength (0515Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued UAV and indirect fire harassment of the Zaporizhzhia/Dnipro axis. RF will likely attempt a "revenge strike" for the 66-UAV wave, potentially using the munitions staged at the 260th GRAU.
MDCOA: Asymmetric maritime retaliation. Given the visual confirmation of the Marinera escort, the RF may authorize "accidental" mine drifts or proxy harassment of commercial vessels in the Black Sea Grain Corridor.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
BDA of 66-UAV Wave: Urgently require satellite or ground-truth confirmation of strike effects within the RF rear (specifically Belgorod and Bryansk storage sites).
260th GRAU Movement: Track rail/road egress from the 260th Central Rocket Artillery Base to determine the destination of the SAR-identified ammunition surge.
Tanker Identity: Verify the specific hull numbers of the US vessel and the tanker in the 0515Z footage to confirm the location and status of the Marinera.
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The theater is characterized by a "strategic exchange" phase. Ukraine is conducting high-volume deep strikes (66 UAVs), while Russia is focusing on localized tactical UAV superiority (Vremivka) and infrastructure attrition (Zaporizhzhia). The stabilization of the Zaporizhzhia grid is a significant tactical win for UAF rear-area security.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities: Russia is demonstrating high AD density (claiming 66 intercepts) but showing an inability to project naval power to protect its "Shadow Fleet" in the Atlantic.
Tactics: Transitioning to "Unmanned Systems Force" tactics on the Vremivka axis, utilizing UAVs as the primary tool for suppressing UAF frontline positions.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Posture: Proactive. The UAF is not conceding the initiative in the air domain, maintaining a high-tempo strike schedule despite worsening weather.
Resilience: The restoration of Zaporizhzhia's heating (0503Z) indicates that the "energy terror" campaign is currently meeting high levels of technical resistance.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Strategic Narrative: The shift in US political sentiment regarding sanctions (0505Z) creates a "time-pressure" factor for the RF, potentially forcing them to accelerate offensive operations before new economic constraints take effect.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Decision Point: The RF must decide whether to commit the munitions from the 260th GRAU Arsenal to a massive strike now (MLCOA) or hold them for a synchronized ground offensive if the ground freezes.
Timeline: Expect a major missile event NLT 09 JAN 2026 based on the 18.95 SAR spike at the GRAU base.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
Reinforce Zaporizhzhia AD: Prioritize Point Defense (C-RAM/Gepard) for the newly restored boiler houses to prevent "double-tap" strikes.
Electronic Warfare (EW) Surge: Deploy additional tactical EW jamming assets to the Vremivka sector to counter the Russian 5th Army's UAV-heavy attrition tactics.
Maritime Advisory: Update commercial shipping in the Black Sea regarding the high likelihood of RF asymmetric retaliation following the visual confirmation of the Marinera escort.
