Repulsed Armored Assault at Pokrovsk (1947Z, RBK-UA, HIGH): The Ukrainian 46th Separate Air Assault Brigade (46th OABr) successfully stopped a massed Russian armored assault near Pokrovsk. Combat footage confirms the destruction of multiple units.
Air Danger in Lipetsk Oblast, RF (1956Z, Igor Artamonov, HIGH): A state of "air danger" has been declared in the Lipetsk region of the Russian Federation, indicating a likely UAF UAV incursion or long-range strike operation targeting the Russian rear.
Kinetic Interceptions over Kryvyi Rih (1945Z, Nikolaevskiy Vanyek, MEDIUM): Reports of "minus" (successful intercepts) suggest UAF Air Defense is actively engaging the UAV swarm identified in the 1928Z report.
High-Level Diplomatic Initiative (1929Z, Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH): French President Emmanuel Macron has convened a "Saint-Denis" format meeting at the Elysée Palace for tomorrow to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine.
Lyman Sector Logistics (1950Z, Dva Mayora, MEDIUM): Pro-Russian sources have launched urgent fundraising for the Krasnolymansk (Lyman) direction, suggesting localized logistical strain or preparation for intensified ground operations in that sector.
Alleged Civilian Casualty in Rodinske (1950Z, Colonelcassad, UNCONFIRMED/LOW): Adversary sources claim a civilian was killed by a UAF FPV drone near a mine in Rodinske. This is currently assessed as a potential information operation to counter the 46th OABr's tactical success.
Operational picture (by sector)
Eastern Axis (Donbas):
Pokrovsk Sector: This remains the primary kinetic focus. The successful repulsion of an armored column by the 46th OABr indicates that while the RF maintains the initiative in volume, UAF tactical positioning and anti-armor capabilities (likely FPV and ATGM) remain effective.
Lyman Sector: Sustained RF interest and fundraising activity suggest this is the secondary effort for RF forces, likely aiming to fix UAF reserves away from the Pokrovsk-Avdiivka salient.
Southern Axis:
Kryvyi Rih/Kherson: The "pincer" drone attack (from 1928Z) has transitioned to the terminal phase. Active interceptions are reported. The objective remains the degradation of municipal infrastructure prior to the arrival of the Jan 8 cyclone.
Russian Rear (Deep Strike):
Lipetsk Oblast: The declaration of air danger suggests UAF is maintaining pressure on Russian logistics or energy hubs, possibly to force the redistribution of RF Air Defense assets from the front lines.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Course of Action (COA): The RF continues to employ massed armor in the Pokrovsk sector despite high attrition rates. The synchronization of these ground probes with infrastructure strikes in the rear (Kryvyi Rih) suggests a multi-domain attempt to break both the front lines and civilian morale.
Logistics: The "Two Majors" fundraising appeal (1950Z) indicates that formal RF MoD supply chains for tactical units in the Lyman direction remain insufficient, relying on volunteer support for "specialized" equipment.
Information Operations: A coordinated effort is underway to discredit the UAF's use of drones (Rodinske claim) and frame President Zelensky's actions as personal "revenge" against Ramzan Kadyrov (1932Z), likely to distract from the maritime failure involving the Marinera.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Success: The 46th OABr has demonstrated high readiness in the Pokrovsk sector, successfully executing a mobile defense against armored threats.
Counter-Offensive Capability: UAF remains capable of projecting power into the Russian rear (Lipetsk), maintaining a credible threat to RF sustainment nodes.
Logistical Constraints: Prominent activists (Sternenko, 1957Z) report a continued "deficit" in drone supplies, highlighting a critical dependency on civilian fundraising for tactical FPV capabilities.
Information environment / disinformation
Opposition Sabotage: Russian sources are amplifying internal conflicts within the Russian opposition (Khodorkovsky vs. Volkov) to project an image of instability and "Western-backed" failure (1938Z).
Geopolitical Narratives: The TASS report (1933Z) regarding Trump-Putin relations despite the Venezuela oil deal is an attempt to signal that RF-US strategic friction remains "manageable" for the Kremlin, despite maritime setbacks.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
High Activity (Pokrovsk): Expect renewed RU ground probes as they attempt to capitalize on any perceived gaps following the repulsed assault.
Deep Strike Impact: Monitor Lipetsk for kinetic impacts; success here would significantly disrupt RF rail/road logistics supporting the Northern and Eastern axes.
Weather Window Closing: This is the final 6-hour window for drone-heavy operations before the Jan 8 cyclone significantly degrades flight conditions.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Pokrovsk Attrition: Need BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) of the armored assault at 1947Z to determine the current combat effectiveness of the RF units in that specific salient.
Lipetsk Targets: Identify the specific target of the Lipetsk air danger (Airbase, rail hub, or industrial plant).
Saint-Denis Objectives: Monitor for preliminary agendas of the "Saint-Denis" meeting to assess potential shifts in Western security guarantee frameworks.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
Reinforce Pokrovsk ATGM Stocks: Prioritize the delivery of NLAW/Javelin and FPV components to the 46th OABr and adjacent units, as RF armor continues to be committed in mass.
UAV Reserve Staging: Given the reported "deficit" (1957Z) and the approaching cyclone, front-line units should stage drone reserves in hardened positions to prevent weather-related damage to remaining stock.
Strategic IO: Amplify the success of the 46th OABr to counter the "Rodinske" civilian casualty narrative, focusing on the precision of UAF strikes against valid military targets.
