UK Confirmation of Maritime Interdiction (1536Z, TASS/UK MoD, HIGH): The UK Ministry of Defence confirmed it provided active assistance to the US in the seizure of the M/T Marinera in the North Atlantic. UK participation included reconnaissance aircraft and the provision of airbases for US Air Force operations (1541Z, TASS).
Kinetic Strikes on Zaporizhzhia (1557Z, Zaporizhzhia ODA, HIGH): Russian forces have conducted a kinetic strike on a district within Zaporizhzhia city following a period of UAV vectoring toward the city from the south.
Expanded UAV Vectoring (1552Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Shahed UAVs previously operating in Dnipropetrovsk have altered course toward Poltava Oblast, indicating a broadening of the current strike geographic envelope.
RF Tactical Success in Zaliznychne (1530Z, Voin DV, LOW): Pro-Russian sources claim the destruction of a UAF "Baba Yaga" drone command post in Zaliznychne using "Molniya-2" loitering munitions. This remains UNCONFIRMED by UAF sources.
High-Level UA-EU Diplomatic Summit (1550Z, Zelenskiy Official, HIGH): President Zelenskyy is holding a trilateral meeting in Cyprus with European Council President António Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, likely focusing on the "reparations loan" and accelerated EU integration.
RF Legal/Diplomatic Escalation (1548Z, MId RF/TASS, HIGH): The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has formally demanded "humane treatment" and the return of Russian citizens from the Marinera, while the Ministry of Transport labeled the seizure a violation of international law (1539Z, Tsaplienko).
Operational picture (by sector)
Maritime Domain (Atlantic & Black Sea):
North Atlantic: The seizure of the M/T Marinera (identified by TankerTrackers as "Shadow Fleet") is now confirmed as a joint US-UK operation. Specific assets utilized included US P-8A Poseidon, KC-135T tankers, and UK Poseidon MRA1 aircraft (1549Z, Kotsnews).
Black Sea: Heightened risk remains for the Ukrainian Grain Corridor. RF state rhetoric has transitioned from "protest" to "demands for return," increasing the probability of a "tit-for-tat" seizure of a Western-linked vessel in the Black Sea or the Gulf of Aden.
Zaporizhzhia: Multiple explosions confirmed in the city (1557Z). Earlier reports of UAVs (1528Z) and the continued KAB threat suggest a coordinated multi-modal strike.
Kryvyi Rih: Remains under UAV threat (1549Z) as municipal services struggle with the ongoing infrastructure failure reported in the previous sitrep.
Mykolaiv: UAF Air Defense is actively engaging an RF reconnaissance UAV in the southern portion of the oblast (1534Z), likely performing BDA or spotting for future ballistic strikes on port infrastructure.
Central/Northern Axis (Poltava / Kharkiv):
Poltava: New UAV threat emerging from the south (1552Z).
Donbas: Russian propaganda outlets (WarGonzo) are emphasizing a "Christmas mission" narrative, potentially masking localized tactical rotations or preparing for the offensive surge indicated by the 260th GRAU SAR spike.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is currently defined by a significant expansion of the maritime conflict and a widening of the RF’s aerial strike patterns within Ukraine. The confirmation of UK involvement in the Marinera seizure provides the Kremlin with a narrative of "Western coalition piracy," which is being used to unify domestic sentiment during the Orthodox Christmas period. In the kinetic domain, the shift of UAVs toward Poltava suggests the RF is seeking to exploit gaps in rear-area air defense.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities/Tactics: RF is utilizing "Molniya-2" UAVs for precision strikes against UAF drone command and control (C2) nodes in the Zaporizhzhia sector (1530Z). This indicates a concerted effort to degrade UAF's tactical reconnaissance and heavy bomber drone ("Baba Yaga") capabilities.
Course of Action: The RF is currently maintaining a "high-pressure" aerial campaign while its diplomatic corps builds a legal framework for retaliation in the maritime domain.
Information Warfare: Putin’s characterization of the war as a "holy mission" (1547Z, RBK-Ukraine) aligns with a broader push to frame the conflict in existential and religious terms to sustain morale amidst economic and maritime setbacks.
3. FRIEINDLY FORCES
Posture: UAF Air Defense remains stretched across three southern/central oblasts (Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk) while now tracking threats into Poltava.
Logistics/Infrastructure: Despite kinetic pressure, the Zaporizhzhia regional administration announced a significant medical infrastructure upgrade (new MRI machine) at the City Emergency Hospital (1544Z), indicating ongoing efforts to maintain civilian resilience in frontline hubs.
Internal Security: Successful SBU/Prosecutor operation in Bukovyna (1530Z) against an illegal mobilization-evasion ring involving a clergyman suggests continued vigilance against internal destabilization and corruption.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Narrative Tracking:
"Western Piracy": RF channels are emphasizing the "joint" nature of the US-UK operation to portray a coordinated Western assault on Russian commerce (1543Z).
"Holy War": Coordinated messaging between the Kremlin and the ROC aiming to sanctify the "Special Military Operation" for the 2026 Orthodox Christmas.
Polish Instability: RF channels (Colonelcassad, 1546Z) are amplifying claims of "Ukrainian banditry" in Poland to drive a wedge between Warsaw and Kyiv.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue the UAV and KAB saturation of Zaporizhzhia and Kryvyi Rih over the next 6 hours to prevent the restoration of water/power.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF "Shadow Fleet" vessels or naval assets in the Atlantic/Mediterranean conduct a deliberate "man overboard" or "mechanical failure" maneuver in a high-traffic shipping lane to force a standoff and disrupt global trade in response to the Marinera seizure.
Timeline: The vectoring of UAVs toward Poltava suggests potential strikes on energy infrastructure or rail hubs in the Poltava/Kremenchuk area within the next 2-4 hours.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Zaporizhzhia Strike Assessment: Urgent need for impact coordinates in Zaporizhzhia city to determine if the target was industrial, military, or residential (CRITICAL).
"Molniya-2" Proliferation: Monitor for increased use of "Molniya-2" loitering munitions in other sectors to determine if this is a widespread tactical shift against UAF drone teams (MEDIUM).
UK/US Naval Posture: Monitor for any RF naval movement in the Atlantic that suggests a pursuit or shadowing of the Marinera as it is escorted to port (HIGH).
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
Poltava AD Alert: Elevate readiness for mobile fire groups in Poltava Oblast immediately; the shift in UAV vectors suggests a deliberate attempt to bypass Dnipro's saturated AD.
Counter-IO: StratCom should highlight the Marinera’s status as a sanctioned "Shadow Fleet" vessel to counter the "piracy" narrative with "law enforcement" and "sanctions enforcement" messaging.
Medical Facility Protection: Ensure that the newly delivered MRI and other critical medical assets in Zaporizhzhia are protected by localized EW to prevent precision UAV targeting.
