Information Operation: Holiday-Themed PSYOPS (1459Z, Басурин о главном, HIGH): Pro-RF channels have initiated a coordinated "Christmas" messaging campaign, blending religious greetings with explicit military support narratives.
Deep Strike Persistence (Baseline): UAF strikes on the Kostroma GRAU arsenal and Lipetsk oil depot (1441Z-1443Z) continue to disrupt RF strategic logistics; BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) is ongoing.
Tactical Denial (Baseline): The Znobovka River bridge (Sumy) remains destroyed, maintaining the isolation of local UAF border sectors.
Security Coalition Signaling (1436Z, RBC/Sky News, MEDIUM): Discussions regarding a US-UK-Ukraine security guarantee coalition are intensifying in the information space.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Sumy/Kharkiv)
Sumy Sector: RF forces maintain control of Hrabovske. The destruction of the Znobovka bridge (1442Z) suggests a defensive consolidation by RF "North" group to prevent UAF counter-raids into the Kursk/Belgorod border regions.
Kharkiv Sector: OTU "Kharkiv" continues to manage complex UAV threats. Defensive posture remains focused on preventing a second front activation while RF consolidates gains in the Sumy pocket.
Eastern Axis (Donbas/Donetsk)
Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad: Kinetic intensity remains high. RF "Tsentr" group is utilizing "bypass" tactics near Myrnohrad to avoid costly frontal assaults.
IO Front: RF sources (WarGonzo, Basurin) are heavily utilizing the Orthodox Christmas holiday (Jan 7) to stabilize the local information environment in Horlivka and occupied Donetsk.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk)
Dnipro Logistics: The 300-ton oil spill at the "Oleyna" plant remains a significant anti-mobility factor, complicating the movement of heavy armor and logistics through the city center toward the Donbas.
Zaporizhzhia: Remains under heavy KAB (guided aerial bomb) bombardment; RF is targeting staging areas to preempt any UAF exploitation of the Kostroma/Lipetsk logistical disruptions.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Shift - Information Hegemony: The recent messaging from pro-RF figures like Basurin (1459Z) indicates an attempt to leverage the Jan 6/7 holiday period for domestic morale stabilization. This often precedes a "unilateral ceasefire" narrative used to paint UAF as the aggressor if kinetic operations continue.
Deep Rear Vulnerability: The failure of RF AD to protect the Kostroma arsenal suggests a systemic gap in rear-area protection, likely due to the prioritization of frontline AD assets (S-300/S-400) to counter UAF aviation and HIMARS.
Aviation: Strategic aviation activity at AB Monchegorsk (SAR 7.64) suggests RF is preparing a retaliatory missile wave following UAF's successful deep strikes.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Asymmetric Command: The SBU’s transition under Vasyl Malyuk to a dedicated "asymmetric/kinetic" directorate is likely in the final planning stages for a high-value strike.
Logistical Adaptation: Engineering units are prioritized for the Dnipro oil spill containment to restore the Pavlohrad-Dnipro MSR (Main Supply Route).
Strike Capability: Demonstrated ability to hit targets 500km+ from the border (Kostroma) forces a re-evaluation of RF strategic reserve placement.
Information environment / disinformation
Religious/Military Fusion (1459Z, Басурин о главном, HIGH): The integration of traditional Christmas greetings with military support is a classic hybrid warfare tactic. It aims to unify the "Church" and "Front," reinforcing the narrative of a "holy war" to sustain volunteer recruitment.
Peacekeeping Narratives (1448Z, Le Monde/Tsaplienko, MEDIUM): Reports of a France-Britain-Turkey peacekeeping proposal are likely being used by Western partners as a strategic trial balloon to gauge RF and domestic Ukrainian reaction.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): RF will maintain high-intensity KAB and UAV strikes on energy infrastructure while simultaneously promoting a "holiday peace" narrative to stall UAF offensive maneuvers.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): RF strategic bombers (Tu-95/160) from Monchegorsk launch a massive saturation strike on Kyiv and the Dnipro crossings, timed to coincide with Christmas Eve services (Jan 6 evening) to maximize psychological shock.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
BDA of Kostroma: Confirm the specific ammunition types destroyed (Standard 152mm vs. North Korean KN-23) to assess the impact on RF fire missions over the next 14 days.
Monchegorsk Activity: Real-time SIGINT/IMINT on bomber taxiing activity at AB Monchegorsk.
SBU Operational Readiness: Monitor for "signature" strikes in Crimea or the Black Sea that would validate the new asymmetric command structure.
