Strategic Diplomacy: Paris Summit Formalized (1222Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): President Zelenskyy’s arrival in France is confirmed for high-level security negotiations. RF propaganda has immediately pivoted to frame these talks as a blueprint for permanent NATO presence on Russian borders (1200Z, Operatsiya Z, MEDIUM).
Northern Front: Burlutsky/Vovchansk Offensive (1211Z, Rybar, LOW): Pro-Russian sources claim a tactical offensive is underway in the Burlutsky direction (Northern Kharkiv). This follows earlier reports of RF incursions in Sumy, suggesting a widening of the northern "buffer zone" operations. [UNCONFIRMED]
Donbas Axis: RF Advance toward Yablonovka (1217Z, Slivony Caprice, MEDIUM): Geolocated data indicates RF tactical movement and potential control shifts on the Konstantinovka – Yablonovka axis.
Air Threat: Northern Vector (1208Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH): A UAV has been detected in the Chernihiv region, moving southeast from the northwest toward Horodnia.
Counter-Intelligence: Kupyansk Neutralization (1205Z, Tsaplienko, MEDIUM): UAF has successfully identified and detained an RF collaborator ("spotter") in Kupyansk who was providing target correction for artillery/missile strikes.
Attrition Evidence: Heavy Equipment Losses (1211Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Visual confirmation of a destroyed UAF M109 SPG and a T-72B tank in a snowy environment. The presence of snow corroborates previous meteorological reports of a severe cold front.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Chernihiv/Sumy/Kharkiv)
Chernihiv: Air defense is active following the detection of a UAV entering from the northwest (1208Z). This suggests RF is utilizing the "seam" between the Sumy incursions and Chernihiv to probe for AD gaps.
Kharkiv (Vovchansk/Burlutsky): A new tactical pressure point has emerged in the Burlutsky direction. This appears to be a coordinated effort to extend the frontline west from the Oskil river toward the border regions, complicating UAF reserve management.
Eastern Axis (Kupyansk/Donbas)
Kupyansk: Defensive posture remains firm despite constant shelling. The detention of a local spotter (1205Z) may temporarily degrade RF's precision fire capability in the immediate urban vicinity.
Konstantinovka - Yablonovka: RF forces are attempting to push west/southwest. Satellite imagery claims (1217Z) suggest a high-intensity engagement in this sector, likely aiming to threaten the rear of the UAF grouping defending the Bakhmut-Donetsk approaches.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipro)
Zaporizhzhia: Air alerts have cleared (1225Z). The sector remains in a state of high readiness following the confirmed presence of "AKHMAT" units near Orikhiv (ref. previous sitrep).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Shifts: RF is increasingly using "probing" offensives across multiple northern sectors (Sumy, now Kharkiv) to prevent UAF from consolidating forces.
Aviation/Missile Threat: The concern expressed by pro-Russian aviation sources (1211Z, Fighterbomber) regarding "events over the last two weeks" may indicate successful UAF long-range AD ambushes or technical issues within the RF VKS (Aerospace Forces).
Hybrid Operations: RF continues to utilize African partnerships (CAR) to project an image of global legitimacy while simultaneously conducting domestic IO targeting Western alliance cohesion (Trump/NATO narratives).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Diplomatic Offensive: Zelenskyy’s presence in Paris is the primary "line of effort" for securing long-term technical support.
Internal Security: High success rate in neutralizing domestic espionage (Kupyansk) and human trafficking (Mykolaiv), maintaining rear-area stability.
Combat Posture: UAF continues to leverage technical advantages (fiber-optic drones in Serebryansky) but is facing increased friction due to extreme cold and equipment attrition (visualized M109/T-72 losses).
Information environment / disinformation
RF Narrative 1 (Encirclement): Framing the Paris Summit as a NATO "occupation" scheme to justify further "buffer zone" expansion (1200Z).
RF Narrative 2 (Alliance Collapse): Amplifying fringe theories about the dissolution of NATO to demoralize Ukrainian domestic sentiment (1210Z).
Domestic RF issues: Ukrainian-aligned reporting highlights systemic failures in the Russian Arctic (1219Z) and high casualty rates in the Volga region (1219Z), aiming to counter the RF MoD's "attrition success" narrative.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RF will maintain UAV pressure on Chernihiv and Sumy to mask continued tactical probing in the Northern Kharkiv (Burlutsky) sector.
MDCOA: RF attempts to exploit the geolocated advance near Yablonovka to launch a sudden mechanized assault toward Konstantinovka, leveraging the frozen ground to bypass traditional defensive obstacles.
Diplomatic: Expected joint press conference in Paris regarding security guarantees.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Burlutsky Offensive Verification: Confirm the scale of RF movement in Northern Kharkiv. Is this a battalion-sized tactical group or a company-sized raid? (Priority 1)
Yablonovka Status: Request fresh IMINT on the Konstantinovka-Yablonovka axis to determine if UAF has established a secondary line of defense. (Priority 1)
RF Aviation Attrition: Investigate the "concern" noted by Fighterbomber. Correlate with any recent UAF claims of aircraft shoot-downs or technical failures. (Priority 2)
Dnipro Logistics: (Persistent from previous) Update on the status of the "Oleyna" oil spill and its impact on military transit through Dnipro city. (Priority 2)
