Deep Strike Expansion - Yaroslavl (0521Z, ASTRA, MEDIUM): Multiple explosions reported in the Neftestroy district of Yaroslavl. This area is home to the Slavneft-Yanos refinery; strike likely targets fuel production/refining.
Deep Strike - Leningrad Oblast (0459Z, ASTRA / 0522Z, Gov. Drozdenko, HIGH): Confirmed drone impact on a gas compressor station in Leningrad Oblast. This represents a significant northward expansion of UAF’s deep-strike envelope.
Mass Drone Wave Assessment (0522Z, TASS/RF MoD, MEDIUM): RF MoD claims to have intercepted 129 UAF drones overnight across multiple regions. Even if inflated, the volume indicates a massive, coordinated UAF aerial campaign.
Civilian Impact - Zaporizhzhia (0510Z, ZOVA, HIGH): RF kinetic strike on Zaporizhzhia city resulted in at least one confirmed civilian fatality (34-year-old male).
Consolidated Drone Defense - Bryansk (0527Z, Gov. Bogomaz, HIGH): RF claims 29 drones downed over Bryansk Oblast alone during the night.
Operational picture (by sector)
Deep Strike / RF Rear Areas:
Leningrad/Yaroslavl: The targeting of a gas compressor station (Leningrad) and the refinery district (Yaroslavl) marks a shift from tactical logistics (POL depots) to strategic energy infrastructure. Interdicting gas compression directly impacts RF energy export and domestic industrial capacity.
Lipetsk: Air danger levels have been lifted (0501Z), but the previously confirmed oil depot fire in Usman continues to burn (Ref: 0457Z Sitrep).
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Polohy):
Polohy Sector: RF 29th Army is intensifying drone operations against UAF communications and observation posts (0500Z).
Velyka Novosilka: RF 218th Tank Regt (127th MSD) remains focused on "drone hunting," specifically targeting UAF "Baba Yaga" heavy hexacopters and Ground Robots (UGVs) (0504Z).
Eastern Axis (Kupyansk/Burluk):
Burluk Direction: Pro-Russian sources (Rybar) report a renewed offensive push. This likely aims to exploit the "Soyuz" pipeline infiltration routes mentioned in the previous daily report (0505Z).
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Defensive Adaptation: RF forces are deploying specialized tank units (127th MSD) to counter UAF technological advantages in UGVs and heavy drones. This indicates RF recognizes a tactical crisis caused by UAF semi-autonomous systems in the south.
Strategic Overstretch: The requirement for RF Air Defense to engage 129+ targets from Bryansk to Leningrad (approx. 1,000km spread) is straining the RF's domestic AD umbrella, likely creating gaps in coverage for secondary waves.
Kursk/Sumy Counter-Pressure: While not explicitly mentioned in the last 30 minutes of traffic, the mass drone wave is likely intended to suppress the RF 34th OMSBBr’s ability to launch its anticipated "buffer zone" offensive toward the H-07 highway.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Multi-Domain Attrition: UAF is successfully maintaining high RF personnel attrition (+940) while simultaneously conducting the largest reported deep-strike drone operation of the winter.
Technological Dominance: Despite RF "hunting" efforts, UAF heavy drones and UGVs continue to paralyze RF movements in the Velyka Novosilka sector, forcing the enemy to commit frontline armor (218th Tank Regt) to defensive "search and destroy" roles rather than breakthroughs.
Information environment / disinformation
RF Defensive Narrative: RF MoD is emphasizing high intercept numbers (129 drones) to project competence and mitigate domestic anxiety regarding the strikes in Leningrad and Yaroslavl (0522Z).
Geopolitical Distraction: Russian-aligned or adjacent channels are circulating claims regarding US interest in Greenland (0512Z). This is assessed as a "noise" narrative designed to distract international audiences from the escalation of deep strikes within the RF.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): UAF will conduct BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) via satellite and clandestine assets on the Yaroslavl refinery and Leningrad compressor station. RF will likely launch a "retaliatory" wave of Kalibr or Kh-101 missiles targeting the Ukrainian energy grid, specifically in the Kyiv/Chernihiv sectors.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): RF leverages the Burluk offensive to achieve a localized breakthrough while UAF reserves are distracted by the ongoing Sumy border incursions and Dnipro logistical friction.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
BDA Yaroslavl: Immediate requirement for status of the Slavneft-Yanos refinery. Is the primary distillation column damaged? (Priority 1)
Leningrad Compressor Station: Determine if the strike affected the Nord Stream or domestic gas transit lines. (Priority 1)
Kupyansk/Burluk: Verify Rybar’s claims of Russian advancement; determine if UAF 77th OAEMBr has sufficient reserves to hold the sector. (Priority 2)
Monchegorsk Status: Re-verify SAR scores at AB Monchegorsk; the 129-drone wave almost guarantees a Russian strategic aviation response. (Priority 1)
