Strategic Leadership Transition in SBU (1446Z, Hayabusa/UA Official, HIGH): President Zelenskyy has appointed Yevhen Khmara as the new Head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU). Outgoing head Vasyl Malyuk will remain within the SBU to lead "asymmetric special operations of a world-class level" (1447Z, Hayabusa).
Confirmed Strike on Dnipro Industrial Infrastructure (1452Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH): Visual evidence confirms a direct OWA-UAV ("Shahed") hit on the "Oleyna" plant in Dnipro. This correlates with earlier reports of a significant oil spill and logistical paralysis in the city’s industrial sector.
Tactical Success in Pokrovsk Sector (1441Z, Sternenko/ALASTOR, MEDIUM): Footage confirms the UA special unit "ALASTOR" successfully engaged and destroyed Russian personnel and fortified positions on the Pokrovsk axis, maintaining defensive pressure in this critical sector.
Economic Instability/Currency Adjustment (1440Z, RBK-UA, HIGH): The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has raised the USD exchange rate by 13 kopecks, signaling ongoing economic pressure amidst the protracted conflict.
Unconfirmed Disinformation Campaign Against UA CinC (1431Z, Colonelcassad, LOW): Pro-Russian sources claim General Syrskyi transferred 1M rubles to Russia for his father's medical treatment. This is assessed as a targeted character assassination attempt and remains UNCONFIRMED.
IPB Framework Analysis
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is currently dominated by a major reorganization of Ukraine’s primary domestic intelligence and special operations apparatus (SBU).
Battlefield Geometry: The Pokrovsk sector remains the center of gravity for ground engagements. RF forces continue to leverage OWA-UAVs to strike deep into the Dnipro logistics hub, successfully interdicting industrial sites (Oleyna plant).
Weather/Environment: Winter conditions persist. The "Oleyna" plant hit has likely exacerbated the previously reported 300-ton oil spill, creating localized environmental hazards and complicating tactical movement within Dnipro.
Control Measures: Increased security and transition protocols are likely in effect within the SBU headquarters and regional offices following the leadership change.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Course of Action: RF is prioritizing the destruction of UA industrial and logistical capacity in Dnipro while simultaneously saturating the information environment with narratives of UA leadership instability.
Tactical Adaptations: RF info-ops have moved quickly to frame the SBU leadership change as a "resignation" or "targeting" (1444Z, Dva Mayora) before official UA statements were fully disseminated, indicating a rapid-reaction hybrid warfare capability.
Logistics/Sustainment: RF remains reliant on OWA-UAV (Shahed) strikes to compensate for its inability to achieve breakthrough mechanized gains in the east.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Operational Status: The 59th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade continues to integrate civilian specialists (e.g., former prosecutors) into frontline combat roles, indicating a high degree of mobilization of the professional class (1434Z, OPG).
Command and Control (C2): The SBU leadership shift marks a pivot toward a bifurcated strategy: Yevhen Khmara will likely handle institutional security and counter-intelligence, while Vasyl Malyuk focuses exclusively on "asymmetric" (deep-strike/sabotage) operations. This suggests an impending escalation of strikes within Russian territory.
Tactical Capabilities: Special units like "ALASTOR" demonstrate high proficiency in drone-integrated urban and trench warfare in the Pokrovsk sector.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Targeted Disinformation: RF sources are aggressively targeting UA CinC Syrskyi and the SBU leadership to foster internal distrust.
Strategic Distraction: RF media is amplifying news regarding Venezuela (1435Z, 1441Z) and legal cases in France (1445Z, TASS) to dilute international focus on the Dnipro strikes and the Oskil river situation.
Morale Management: UA official channels are highlighting the transition of legal professionals to the front lines to reinforce the "total war" commitment across all societal strata.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Under Khmara’s new leadership, the SBU will tighten internal security to prevent leaks, while Malyuk’s new asymmetric mandate will lead to a surge in UAV/sabotage operations targeting RF energy and C2 nodes within the next 72-96 hours.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF forces, sensing a transition period in UA security leadership, launch a multi-axis mechanized assault on the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad line while simultaneously executing a massive missile salvo on Dnipro to exploit the current logistical friction from the Oleyna plant fire and oil spill.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
High Alert: Potential for "parting gift" or "inaugural" strikes from the SBU’s asymmetric wing.
Logistics: Expect continued transport bottlenecks in Dnipro industrial zones.
Frontline: High-intensity drone and artillery exchanges to continue in the Pokrovsk sector as RF attempts to capitalize on any perceived C2 transition lag.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
SBU Reorganization Details: Determine the specific resource allocation for Malyuk’s new "asymmetric" unit.
Industrial Damage Assessment: Obtain BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) on the "Oleyna" plant to determine the specific impact on local supply chains and military fuel/food lubricants.
Pokrovsk Sector Reinforcements: Monitor for any movement of UA reserves toward Pokrovsk to support the ALASTOR unit's current operations.
