SBU Leadership Transition Finalized (1335Z, ASTRA, HIGH): Yevhen Khmara, formerly head of SBU Center for Special Operations "A" (Alpha), has been officially appointed as Acting Head of the SBU. This confirms the previously noted pivot toward high-kinetic, elite sabotage and special operations leadership.
Confirmed Logistical Disruption in Dnipro (1334Z, Filatov/OpZSU, HIGH): A Russian Federation (RF) strike—confirmed as OWA-UAV—on an industrial facility resulted in a 300-ton oil spill. The spill is obstructing transit and creates a high-priority environmental/engineering recovery requirement (Ref: 1321Z Previous Sitrep).
Novel Tactical Manifold in Kharkiv (1337Z, Butusov Plus, HIGH): RF forces attempted a specialized infiltration maneuver using the "Soyuz" gas pipeline for cover. The 77th OAEMBr (Airborne Assault) successfully detected and neutralized the group using drone-coordinated surveillance.
RF Aviation Surge near Huliaipole (1334Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): RF tactical bombers have intensified sorties west and northwest of Huliaipole to suppress Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) counterattack attempts.
Pokrovsk Envelopment Threat (1334Z, 7th Corps DShV, HIGH): UAF 7th Corps (Air Assault) reports a surge in RF pressure near Myrnohrad, with enemy units attempting to bypass established defensive nodes rather than conducting direct frontal assaults.
Massive UAF UAV Incursion (1344Z, TASS/RF MoD, MEDIUM): RF MoD claims to have engaged 50 UAF UAVs over Russian territory in a 5-hour window, indicating the continuation of the saturation campaign identified in the previous daily report.
IPB Framework Analysis
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is currently defined by a heavy Ukrainian UAV saturation campaign against RF regions and a corresponding RF focus on industrial interdiction in the Ukrainian rear.
Battlefield Geometry: RF is shifting from frontal assaults to "bypass" maneuvers in the Pokrovsk sector. In Kharkiv, the use of specialized infrastructure (pipelines) for infiltration indicates a search for novel tactical seams.
Environmental Factors: The 300-ton oil spill in Dnipro is no longer just an environmental hazard but an active mobility constraint for military logistics transiting the city.
Current Force Dispositions: UAF 77th OAEMBr is holding the Kharkiv axis; 7th Corps DShV is the primary blocking force in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad sector.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Tactical Changes: The RF "Zapad" and "Vostok" groups are increasingly relying on aviation (bombers) to blunt UAF counterattacks in the Southern Sector (Huliaipole). The attempted use of the "Soyuz" pipeline suggests a high degree of desperation or tactical experimentation to overcome UAF drone dominance in open terrain.
C2 Effectiveness: RF C2 appears responsive to UAF UAV saturation, as evidenced by the rapid claim of 50 intercepts. However, the continued penetration of UAF drones indicates gaps in the "Kovyor" (Carpet) AD implementation.
Logistics: RF strikes on Dnipro industrial sites aim to degrade the sustainment of the Donbas front by contaminating/obstructing key hub transit routes.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
SBU Transition: The appointment of Yevhen Khmara (1335Z) signals a formalization of the "Alpha-led" strategy. Expect immediate operational shifts toward deep-rear sabotage and maritime/aviation asset liquidation.
Operational Readiness: 7th Corps DShV and 77th OAEMBr remain combat effective despite increased pressure. The successful defense of the "Soyuz" pipeline probe demonstrates high situational awareness and drone-integration maturity.
Force Posture: UAF Air Force is tracking OWA-UAVs on multiple vectors: Chernihiv (from West), Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, and Sumy (1341Z-1345Z).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Strategic Diversion (International): RF media is heavily saturating the space with the Maduro federal court appearance in NYC (1340Z) and the shooting at US VP Vance's residence (1343Z). This is a coordinated "Hybrid LOE" to frame Western internal instability as a counter-narrative to RF military setbacks.
Disinformation: Rumors regarding the flight of Iran's Ayatollah Khamenei to Moscow (1345Z) are assessed as high-probability disinformation (likely RF-origin) to test Iranian internal reaction or serve as a distraction.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue its OWA-UAV wave through the night, targeting energy and industrial sites in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia (1345Z Air Force alert). 7th Corps DShV will face a renewed mechanized push in the Pokrovsk sector within 12 hours as RF attempts to exploit the bypass maneuver.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the chaos of the Dnipro oil spill and simultaneous UAV waves on Chernihiv/Sumy to launch a localized tactical missile strike on UAF C2 nodes in central Ukraine while the SBU leadership transition is finalized, aiming to exploit the temporary administrative window.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
High Alert: Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, and Sumy under immediate UAV threat.
Tactical Friction: Expect intensified fighting in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad sector as RF tries to solidify the bypass maneuver reported by 7th Corps.
Leadership Impact: The appointment of Khmara will likely be followed by a high-value Ukrainian strike (SBU Alpha signature) against RF logistics or naval assets to project strength under the new command.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Infrastructure Damage (Kharkiv): Assess if the "Soyuz" pipeline was damaged during the 77th OAEMBr engagement.
Pokrovsk Geometry: Identify the specific coordinates of the RF "bypass" attempts to determine if they are targeting the Myrnohrad rail line.
UAV Vector (Chernihiv): Confirm the launch point of the UAV approaching Chernihiv from the West—this suggests a possible circuitous route through Belarusian or northern airspace.
