Sumy Sector (0932Z-0945Z, RF MoD/TASS/Poddubny, HIGH): Final confirmation of the capture of Hrabovske. Footage released shows RF units in the settlement. Identification of the 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (OMSBBr) as the primary maneuvering element.
Mykolaiv Air Threat (0937Z-0948Z, UA Air Force/Nikolaevsky Vanek, HIGH): Multiple groups of OWA-UAVs (Shaheds) transiting from Kherson toward Mykolaiv. Specific high-priority threat identified for Kulbakino Airbase. One UAV reported intercepted at 0951Z.
Strategic Personnel Shift (0935Z-0953Z, Zelensky Official/ASTRA/ZSU, HIGH): President Zelenskyy has appointed Serhiy Kyslytsia as First Deputy Head of the Office of the President and Chrystia Freeland (former Canadian FinMin) as an advisor on economic development.
Zaporizhzhia Evacuations (0941Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): Civil authorities have initiated new evacuation protocols citing intensified Russian shelling of critical infrastructure and "new threats" (likely linked to the recent Stepnohirsk breach).
Druzhkivka Operational Direction (0936Z, Colonelcassad/Kotenok, MEDIUM): Pro-Russian sources report a surge in combat intensity and tactical advances toward Druzhkivka (Donetsk Oblast).
Internal Security Rumor (0953Z, Colonelcassad, LOW): Claims circulating in pro-Russian channels regarding the imminent dismissal of SBU Head Vasyl Malyuk. UNCONFIRMED.
IPB Framework Analysis
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is characterized by a Russian effort to transition from "fixing" operations to "exploitation" in the north and east.
Battlefield Geometry: The loss of Hrabovske creates a persistent flank threat to the Sumy-Kharkiv corridor. In the south, the RF is using OWA-UAV waves to probe gaps in the Mykolaiv-Kherson air defense (AD) umbrella.
Infrastructure: Ukrenergo confirms renewed strikes on energy infrastructure (0931Z), indicating the RF winter strike campaign remains prioritized despite UAF deep strikes.
Weather: Deteriorating conditions (cyclonic activity) are likely forcing the RF to maximize UAV and artillery employment before mobility for heavy armor becomes restricted by mud.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Operational Pictures by Sector:
Northern Axis (Sumy): RF forces (34th OMSBBr) are consolidating in Hrabovske. This unit is traditionally mountain-trained but is being used here for specialized border lodgment operations.
Donetsk Axis (Druzhkivka): Increased pressure on the Druzhkivka sector suggests the RF is attempting to widen the Pokrovsk-Kramatorsk salient to prevent UAF lateral reinforcements.
Southern Axis (Mykolaiv/Zaporizhzhia): RF is conducting a coordinated UAV strike on Mykolaiv (specifically targeting Kulbakino). In Zaporizhzhia, shelling is being used as a precursor to potential ground movement, forcing civilian evacuations and clogging logistics routes.
Capabilities & Tactics:
Coordinated Strikes: The use of "Shahed" waves to pathfind toward aviation hubs (Kulbakino) suggests a high-value targeting cycle aimed at degrading UAF air-launch capabilities.
Psychological Ops: Use of historical WWII anniversaries (Kirovohrad operation) and political commentary (Zakharova on Trump) indicates a continued effort to link current operations to "Great Patriotic War" narratives to sustain domestic morale.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Strategic Realignment: The appointment of Kyslytsia and Freeland indicates a shift toward "economic warfare" and international diplomatic stabilization. This suggests the UAF leadership is preparing for a "long war" scenario requiring deep integration with Western economic structures.
Air Defense Integrity: Pvk (Air Command) successfully intercepted 3 UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk. However, the concentration of UAVs toward Mykolaiv (0945Z) suggests AD saturation is a risk in the Southern AOR.
Civil-Military Integration: The Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia OVAs are actively managing the cognitive space by providing rapid damage assessments and evacuation updates, mitigating the effects of RF "panic" narratives.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Narrative Diversion: RF channels are heavily pushing internal Ukrainian "instability" (Malyuk resignation rumors) to counter the news of high-level international appointments (Freeland).
Anti-Western Rhetoric: Frequent mentions of US policy and resource control (Basurin, Zakharova) aimed at framing the conflict as a global struggle against American "extractionism."
Disinformation: Pro-Russian sources (Sternenko/fake) are attempting to mischaracterize Freeland's role as a Canadian government official rather than a personal advisor to Zelenskyy to trigger "sovereignty" critiques.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Within the next 6 hours, RF will conduct localized "probing" ground assaults from the Hrabovske lodgment toward the H-07 highway. Concurrently, the UAV wave currently over Mykolaiv will attempt to strike Kulbakino infrastructure to ground UAF tactical aviation.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF exploits the Druzhkivka pressure point to launch a multi-brigade mechanized assault, aiming to sever the H-20 highway and isolate the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk agglomeration before UAF can reposition reserves from the Pokrovsk sector.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
High Alert (Mykolaiv/Kulbakino): Expect kinetic impacts or interception debris in the Mykolaiv urban area.
Sumy Stabilization: UAF must establish a secondary line of defense west of Hrabovske to prevent a "creeping" expansion of the border buffer zone.
Leadership Dynamics: Monitor official UA government portals for confirmation or denial of SBU leadership changes to assess internal stability.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Kulbakino BDA: Immediate Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) required if UAVs penetrate the Mykolaiv AD screen.
34th OMSBBr Disposition: Determine if the 34th OMSBBr is being reinforced by additional motorized rifle regiments in Sumy, which would indicate an intent for a wider offensive.
Druzhkivka Force Composition: Identify specific RF units involved in the Druzhkivka advance to assess if this is a localized push or a new operational-level vector.
