C2 Leadership Transition (0707Z, RBC-Ukraine, HIGH): Sources confirm SBU Head Vasyl Malyuk is expected to submit his resignation today, following the appointment of Kyrylo Budanov to the OPU. This signals a complete restructuring of Ukraine's top-tier security and intelligence leadership.
Vovchansk Sector Rotation/Withdrawal (0723Z, TASS, LOW): RF sources claim UAF is withdrawing GUR "Timur Center" units from Vovchansk to reconstitute after heavy losses. UNCONFIRMED.
Active OWA-UAV Threats (0702Z-0720Z, UAF AF, HIGH): Multiple Shahed-type UAV groups are active: 1) Moving from N. Dnipropetrovsk toward Kharkiv; 2) From N. toward Sumy; 3) From S. toward Zaporizhzhia.
Southern Axis Attrition (0700Z, Voin DV, MEDIUM): RF 60th Motorized Rifle Brigade (5th Army) claims destruction of a UAF BTR near Huliaipole, corroborating the intense pressure on this axis noted in the previous 24h.
Russian Deep Rear Activity (0711Z-0727Z, ASTRA, MEDIUM): RF Air Defenses active over Oryol (4 UAVs) and Rostov Oblasts; likely continuation of UAF's strategic disruption campaign.
Material Support (0710Z, Hayabusa/Delfi, HIGH): Latvia has authorized the transfer of 21 confiscated vehicles to UAF.
IPB Framework Analysis
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is characterized by institutional transition in Kyiv and multi-axis aerial harassment. While the frontline remains largely static since the fall of Podoly (Kupyansk sector), the RF is maintaining high-frequency infantry and FPV drone pressure on the Huliaipole axis to prevent UAF reserve redistribution.
Weather: Winter conditions continue to favor drone-heavy reconnaissance and strike over large-scale mechanized maneuvers.
Geometry: RF "Zapad" group is focusing artillery and drone assets on the Kupyansk district to suppress UAF "temporary deployment areas" (MoD Russia, 0700Z), likely preparing for a follow-on push from Podoly.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities & Intentions:
Tactical Reconnaissance-Strike: RF forces (352nd MRR) are aggressively fundraising for Mavic 3T (thermal) drones (07:00Z), indicating a persistent capability gap in organic night-vision ISR that they are attempting to fill via volunteer logistics.
Kupyansk Suppression: RF is utilizing Msta-S self-propelled howitzers for precision strikes on UAF camouflaged positions in the Kupyansk sector. This indicates a "clearing" phase intended to prevent UAF from establishing a secondary line after the loss of Podoly.
Southern Pressure: The engagement near Huliaipole (0700Z) involving the 5th Army suggests RF is utilizing its "Vostok" Group to fix UAF forces in the south through localized armor interdiction.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Posture & Readiness:
Strategic Rotation: If the TASS report regarding the "Timur Center" withdrawal from Vovchansk is accurate, it suggests UAF is prioritizing the preservation of elite intelligence-unit personnel over holding specific ruins in the Vovchansk urban center.
Air Defense: UAF Air Force is successfully tracking and vectoring mobile fire groups against a multi-directional Shahed wave targeting Kharkiv, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia.
Logistics: Arrival of Latvian vehicles provides immediate tactical mobility for territorial or auxiliary units, though it does not address the heavy armor requirements.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Domestic Dissent: Anti-government sentiment in Russia is being channeled through "Swan Lake" cultural references (07:15Z), signaling a symbolic expectation of leadership change among younger demographics.
External Influence: RF media (Rybar) is heavily promoting the Georgian "Information Sovereignty" model as a success, likely aiming to provide a roadmap for other regional partners to suppress Western-aligned media and NGOs (07:00Z).
Leadership Framing: RF state media is amplifying Western reports (The Guardian) regarding President Zelenskyy's projected difficulties in 2026 to foster a narrative of "inevitable decline."
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue the current OWA-UAV wave to map UAF Air Defense positions in Sumy and Kharkiv. In the next 6 hours, we expect a localized mechanized push toward Petropavlivka (Kupyansk) to exploit the momentum from the capture of Podoly.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the reported withdrawal of GUR units from Vovchansk to launch a rapid flanking maneuver toward Lyptsi, attempting to force a general UAF retreat from the northern Kharkiv border before replacements can be deployed.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Vovchansk Ground Truth: Confirm if GUR "Timur Center" has indeed withdrawn or if this is an RF maskirovka/disinformation effort to encourage UAF overextension.
SBU Transition Impact: Monitor for any pause in counter-sabotage or rear-area security operations following Malyuk’s resignation.
Huliaipole Armor Density: Determine if RF is moving additional heavy armor (T-80/T-90) into the 5th Army AOR, which would signal a transition from "fixing" to "breakthrough" intent.
Recommendations:
Sector Alert: Increase readiness of the 81st Airmobile Brigade (ref: 0706Z report) to support potential gaps in the Donbas/Kupyansk seams.
AD Distribution: Ensure mobile fire groups in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia are on high alert for Shaheds equipped with the previously identified IR-searchlights/dazzlers.
Information Ops: Counter the "Timur Center withdrawal" narrative with visual evidence of UAF presence in Vovchansk if the units remain in situ.
