Massive Mixed-Modal Air Attack (0619Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): RF launched 165 UAVs (including ~100 Shahed-type) and 9 ballistic/anti-aircraft missiles (Iskander-M/S-300) overnight.
Air Defense Performance (0604Z, Operativno ZSU, HIGH): UAF successfully intercepted 137 of 165 drones (83% efficacy). Notably, 0 of 9 ballistic missiles were intercepted, indicating saturation or lack of ATBM (Anti-Tactical Ballistic Missile) coverage in target zones.
Strategic Aviation Sortie Aborted (0606Z, Tsaplienko, MEDIUM): RF strategic bombers reportedly cancelled a combat mission overnight. Attributed to poor weather at launch points or deliberate psychological pressure.
UNCONFIRMED: SBU Leadership Change (0619Z, Tsaplienko/Ukrainska Pravda, LOW): Reports suggest SBU Head Vasyl Malyuk has agreed to resign. This remains unconfirmed by official government channels.
Ongoing Loitering Munition Threat (0624Z, Air Force UA, HIGH): Active UAVs reported over Poltava Oblast, specifically vectored toward Myrhorod and Velyka Bahachka.
Belgorod Kinetic Activity (0613Z, ASTRA, HIGH): A UAF drone strike in Belgorod Oblast resulted in one civilian injury, continuing the trend of asymmetric cross-border responses.
IPB Framework Analysis
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The theater is currently absorbing the impact of a large-scale strategic air campaign. While the "double-tap" ballistic threat to Pavlohrad mentioned in the previous report was part of this wave, the overall volume of 165 drones represents a peak in saturation efforts.
Battlefield Geometry: No significant territorial shifts reported in the last 6 hours, though Fighting in Kostiantynivka remains at high intensity.
Weather: Adverse conditions at RF launch hubs likely contributed to the cancellation of strategic aviation (Tu-95MS/Tu-160) sorties, providing a temporary reprieve from cruise missile strikes (Tsaplienko, 0606Z).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities & Intentions:
Phased Urban Offensive (Kostiantynivka): Analysis indicates the RF "Kostiantynivka Offensive" is transitioning to a phased execution model rather than a broad-front push. This suggests RF is managing limited strategic reserves by focusing on sequential tactical objectives (Zvиздец Мангусту, 0610Z).
Ballistic Efficacy: The 100% success rate of RF ballistic/S-300 strikes (9/9 impacts) in the latest wave suggests RF is successfully identifying gaps in UAF's medium-to-high altitude AD umbrella, or targeting regions where Patriot/SAMP-T systems are not deployed (RBK-UA, 0619Z).
Counter-UAS: RF paramilitary sources claim the successful downing of a Ukrainian "Vampire" heavy hexacopter, indicating continued refinement of their localized anti-drone screens (Colonelcassad, 0625Z).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Posture & Readiness:
Air Defense Resiliency: Despite the ballistic impacts, the 83% drone interception rate confirms that UAF Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) and short-range AD remain effective against massed loitering munition swarms.
Internal Security: If the resignation of SBU Head Malyuk is confirmed, it may indicate a significant reorganization of internal security protocols following recent deep-strike successes or political realignments. Confidence in this is currently LOW (Belief: 0.0048).
Asymmetric Operations: Continued drone pressure on Belgorod indicates UAF intends to force RF to maintain high AD density within their own borders, potentially drawing assets away from the frontline.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
International Distraction (Venezuela): RF-aligned channels are aggressively pushing a narrative regarding US military actions in Venezuela, claiming 80 fatalities (ASTRA, 0602Z; Arkhangel Spetsnaza, 0600Z). This is a clear attempt to dilute international focus on the Ukraine air campaign.
EU Delegitimization: State media (TASS) is amplifying "Fourth Reich" rhetoric targeting Ursula von der Leyen to foster Euro-skepticism among Western audiences (TASS, 0619Z).
Trump Narrative: Strategic messaging via "Operatsiya Z" suggests RF is framing Trump’s peace initiatives as purely financial, aimed at "recovering investments," to undermine the moral framing of US support (0627Z).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue the phased infantry accumulation in southern Kostiantynivka. Following the aborted bomber sortie, a rescheduled massed cruise missile strike is likely within the next 24-48 hours once weather conditions stabilize.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF exploits the current lack of ballistic missile interceptions to target UAF's Command and Control (C2) nodes in Kyiv or Dnipro during a suspected leadership transition within the SBU, aiming to decapitate operational coordination during the Kostiantynivka defense.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Missile Impact BDA: Identify the specific targets of the 9 Iskander-M/S-300 missiles that bypassed AD. Assess damage to the Pavlohrad logistics hub.
SBU Leadership Status: Monitor official government portals (President.gov.ua) for decrees confirming or denying Malyuk’s resignation.
Strategic Aviation Readiness: Monitor RF airbases (Olenya, Engels-2) for renewed taxiing activity or fueling of Tu-95MS platforms.
Recommendations:
Inter-Agency Coordination: Maintain high alert for C2 disruptions if leadership changes occur. Ensure clear lines of succession in territorial defense commands.
Ballistic Defense Reallocation: If the 9 missile impacts targeted critical rail/energy infrastructure, prioritize the movement of IRIS-T or Patriot batteries to protect the Pavlohrad-Dnipro logistics spine.
Public Diplomacy: Counter the "Venezuela/US strike" narrative with verified data on the 165-UAV overnight attack to maintain focus on RF's targeting of Ukrainian civilian infrastructure.
