New Aerial Threat Vector (0407Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): OWA-UAVs detected transiting from Chernihiv Oblast toward Sumy Oblast (specifically Konotop district).
Zaporizhzhia Air Alert Termination (0401Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): "All Clear" signal issued for the Zaporizhzhia region, following previous high-intensity KAB activity.
Technology Deployment: "Glaz/Groza" (0417Z, Operatsiya Z, MEDIUM): RF forces are utilizing a new technology suite ("Eye/Thunder") claimed to enable precision strikes in satellite-denied environments.
Vremyevka Tactical Engagement (0405Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): RF 5th Army (Vostok Group) reportedly using UAVs to strike UAF personnel and armor, specifically targeting counter-attack attempts on the Vremyevka axis.
Information Operation: VDV Integration (0359Z-0401Z, Rus-Media, MEDIUM): Coordinated release of motivational and historical VDV content across major RU mil-channels, likely aimed at stabilizing morale after recent UAF deep strikes.
IPB Framework Analysis
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield geometry is currently defined by a shift in aerial pressure. While the strategic missile threat to Kyiv has subsided, the RF is maintaining a "rolling" UAV threat, moving from central Poltava (previous report) to the North-Eastern corridor (Chernihiv-Sumy).
Weather: Impending cyclonic activity (as noted in Daily Report) is likely forcing a surge in drone operations before visibility degrades.
Control Measures: Air alerts have been lifted in the South (Zaporizhzhia), allowing for damage assessment of frontline positions previously hit by KABs.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities & Intentions:
Navigation Adaptation: The deployment of the "Glaz/Groza" system (0417Z) suggests an RF effort to bypass UAF GPS-jamming/electronic warfare. If confirmed, this system allows RF "Groznye Ptitsy" units to maintain strike accuracy despite satellite signal degradation.
Sector Focus (Vremyevka): RF activity in the Vremyevka direction (0405Z) indicates an intent to fix UAF forces in the south and prevent the redistribution of reserves to the deteriorating Kupyansk sector (Ref: Podoly capture).
Aviation/UAV Synergy: The transit of UAVs toward Konotop (0407Z) likely serves as reconnaissance or pathfinding for potential strikes on the rail/logistics nodes connecting Sumy to the eastern front.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Posture & Readiness:
Mobile Fire Group (MFG) Re-orientation: UAF air defense is re-tasking from the Kyiv/Poltava vectors to the Chernihiv/Sumy axis to intercept the incoming UAV wave.
Southern Resilience: UAF units in the Vremyevka direction are actively attempting counter-attacks to regain tactical positions, though they are currently facing high-density RF drone surveillance and strikes.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
VDV Narratives: The surge in VDV-related content (0359Z, 0401Z) suggests these units may be preparing for a high-profile role in the next 24-48 hours, or the RF is using their "elite" status to mask concerns regarding UAF's successful penetration of Moscow/Tula airspace.
Domestic Distraction: TASS reporting on domestic disappearances in Krasnoyarsk (0416Z) may be an attempt to normalize the news cycle and pivot away from military-specific reporting.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue the UAV transit into Sumy Oblast to identify UAF secondary defense lines and EW clusters. Ground activity in Vremyevka will remain kinetic as RF attempts to suppress UAF tactical movement with "Glaz/Groza"-enabled drone strikes.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the "satellite-independent" Glaz/Groza system to conduct a precision strike on a high-value UAF command node or logistics hub (like Konotop) while UAF EW is focused on generic Shahed jamming.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
"Glaz/Groza" Technical Specs: Determine the operational frequency and guidance method of this system (Inertial, Optical Flow, or alternative).
Sumy UAV Vector: Identify if the UAVs transiting Konotop are the "Searchlight" variants previously seen or standard OWA-UAVs.
Vremyevka Force Strength: Assess if the RF 5th Army is receiving mechanized reinforcements or if the drone activity is a screen for a local withdrawal/rotation.
Recommendations:
Electronic Warfare Audit: Units in the Sumy/Konotop sector should verify the effectiveness of standard GPS-jamming against incoming drones, given the reported deployment of the satellite-independent "Glaz/Groza" system.
Vremyevka Dispersal: Tactical units on the Vremyevka axis must prioritize camouflage and dispersal (NLT 0600Z) to mitigate the effectiveness of RF drone-led suppression of counter-attacks.
Sumy Border Monitoring: Increase ISR coverage on the border between Chernihiv and Sumy to identify the launch points of the current UAV wave.
