ATGM Activity in Zaporizhzhia (0204Z, TASS/RU MoD, MEDIUM): RF "Vostok" group units are confirmed to be employing 9M133 "Kornet" ATGM systems against UAF fortified strongpoints in the Zaporizhzhia sector.
RF Legal Mobilization Shift (0222Z, TASS, HIGH): The age for taking the "Oath of Allegiance" to the Russian Federation will be lowered to 14 years effective January 9, indicating a legal shift toward earlier militarization of the youth population.
Close Quarters Battle (CQB) in East (0227Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): The "Somali" Separate Assault Battalion (60th OMSB) is confirmed engaged in high-intensity close-range infantry combat; footage suggests active clearing operations.
Diplomatic Information Shift (0220Z, RBK-UA, HIGH): Donald Trump has publicly expressed skepticism regarding Ukrainian responsibility for the alleged strike on Putin’s residence, introducing friction into the "decapitation strike" narrative used by the RF.
Regional Propaganda Push (0205Z, Colonelcassad/@Belarus_VPO, LOW): RF-aligned channels have launched a coordinated information campaign targeting Polish militarization in 2025 to frame regional NATO buildup as provocative.
IPB Framework Analysis
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment remains under the shadow of a pending strategic missile strike (Ref: 0200Z Sitrep regarding Tu-95MS and Kalibr carriers). However, new tactical data suggests a localized surge in precision-guided munitions and close-infantry assaults.
Battlefield Geometry: The Zaporizhzhia axis is seeing increased "Vostok" activity, while the Donetsk sector continues to be the primary theater for elite assault units like the Somali Battalion.
Environmental Factors: Visibility remains poor, favoring the CQB tactics observed in the "Somali" footage and the use of thermal-equipped ATGM systems like the Kornet.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities & Intentions:
Tactical Precision: The use of Kornet ATGMs against fixed fortifications in Zaporizhzhia (ТАСС, 0204Z) suggests a systematic attempt to dismantle UAF defensive lines ahead of any potential mechanized push.
Assault Doctrine: The engagement of the 60th OMSB (Somali) indicates that the RF is still committing high-readiness units to achieve tactical breakthroughs in urban or entrenched environments.
Personnel Sustainability: Lowering the oath age to 14 (ТАСС, 0222Z) is a long-term indicator of the RF's intent to sustain a multi-generational war footing and streamline the path from youth organizations to military service.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Defensive Posture: UAF strongpoints in Zaporizhzhia are under targeted ATGM fire. Units must prioritize the use of multi-layered overhead cover and EW to disrupt ATGM guidance systems where possible.
Kyiv/Kharkiv Status: Units remain on high alert following earlier strikes (0150Z). Civil defense is still managing the Obolon district fatality and medical facility damage.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Reflexive Control: The "Somali" battalion footage (Colonelcassad, 0227Z) serves a dual purpose: domestic recruitment and psychological pressure on UAF front-line morale.
Geopolitical Exploitation: RF media is amplifying Trump’s skepticism (RBK-UA, 0220Z) to undermine the legitimacy of UAF's deep-strike campaign and sow doubt among Western allies regarding Ukrainian operational reporting.
Targeting Poland: Framing Poland’s 2025 military growth as "militarization" (Colonelcassad, 0205Z) aims to isolate Warsaw from the broader EU/NATO consensus.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Within the next 2-4 hours, the synchronized missile strike (Air/Sea/Land) previously identified will likely commence. RF will use the tactical "fixing" fire in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk to prevent UAF from repositioning reserves during the national air alert.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the "Somali" battalion and "Vostok" ATGM units to conduct a localized "lightning" breach of the Zaporizhzhia line, timed exactly with the arrival of cruise missiles to paralyze UAF command and control.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Zaporizhzhia Attrition: Need BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) on UAF strongpoints targeted by Kornets to determine if defensive lines are compromised.
Somali Battalion Location: Pinpoint the exact sector of the 60th OMSB's current operations to assess if they are spearheading a new tactical axis.
Oath Age Implementation: Monitor for changes in RF conscription or "voluntary" youth deployment regulations following the Jan 9 oath age change.
Recommendations:
Tactical Mobility: Units in Zaporizhzhia should avoid static defensive patterns in bunkers known to RF ISR; prioritize displacement and camouflage against ATGM teams.
Counter-UAV/ATGM: Deploy specialized EW teams to the Zaporizhzhia sector to intercept the laser-guidance or thermal-sighting signatures of Kornet operators.
Strategic Communications: Counter the RF "Somali" propaganda with footage of UAF successful defensive engagements to maintain internal morale.
