Situation Update (1828Z)
Key updates since last sitrep
- Confirmed Strategic UAV Volume (1810Z, RU MoD/Colonelcassad, HIGH): Russian MoD officially confirms the interception of 253 Ukrainian UAVs between 1300Z and 2000Z. This corroborates the earlier unprecedented sortie volume reported.
- New Aerial Threat – Northern Axis (1825Z, Air Force ZSU, HIGH): A group of OWA-UAVs (Shaheds) has entered Chernihiv airspace, vectored toward Ripky.
- RF Proximity to Dnipropetrovsk Border (1811Z, Operatsiya Z, MEDIUM): RU "Center" Group ("Otvažnye") reported conducting combat operations in the vicinity of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, specifically pushing toward the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border.
- Strategic Policy Directive (1759Z, Zelenskyy, HIGH): President Zelenskyy announced a "dual-track" strategy for the upcoming week: a major diplomatic push in Europe paired with "active defense" measures if partner pressure on Russia remains insufficient.
- Anti-Drone Interception Success (1820Z, Sternenko, HIGH): Visual evidence confirms a successful UA interceptor-drone strike against a Russian Shahed, demonstrating the maturing of UA's kinetic counter-UAS capabilities.
- Internal Russian Connectivity Warning (1825Z, Arkhangel Spetznaza, MEDIUM): Pro-Russian tactical channels are warning of potential internet restrictions in the RF during the New Year holiday period, suggesting anticipated civil or security disruptions.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Chernihiv/Sumy)
- New Incursion: A fresh wave of Russian OWA-UAVs is transiting Chernihiv (1825Z). This follows the morning's mass alert and suggests a "tit-for-tat" response to the massive UA drone wave.
- Border Security: No significant changes in ground disposition; focus remains on aerial interdiction.
Eastern Axis (Pokrovsk/Donbas)
- Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad: Russian "Center" Group forces are intensifying pressure on the Pokrovsk salient. Reports of operations "at the Dnipropetrovsk oblast border" (1811Z) indicate a westward expansion of the combat zone beyond previous tactical limits.
- Lyman/Novomykhailivka: (Baseline: Ongoing grey zone combat). Russian analytical sources (Rybar, 1803Z) are increasingly publishing "lessons learned" content regarding the failure of mechanized columns, suggesting a tactical shift toward smaller, decentralized assault groups to mitigate UA's FPV and sniper superiority.
Southern Axis (Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia)
- Logistics Threat: The movement of RU forces toward the Dnipropetrovsk border increases the threat to the Pavlohrad-Dnipro logistics corridor (Referenced in Daily Report 1500Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
- Tactical Adaptation: RU reconnaissance units (NgP RaZvedka, 1809Z) claim UA has "noticed" one recent innovation and hint at a secondary "innovation" to be fielded within a month. This likely refers to the IR searchlights or new EW-resistant guidance systems.
- Information Warfare: RU channels continue to use the Maduro/NYC narrative (1816Z, 1821Z) to project a "US-centric world order" as aggressive and expansionist, aiming to demoralize UA supporters by suggesting global priorities are shifting.
- Aviation: (Baseline: MiG-31K feints). Expect continued "alert fatigue" sorties tonight.
Friendly activity (UAF)
- Active Defense: UA is maintaining a high operational tempo in the deep rear while stabilizing the eastern front. The confirmed 250+ UAV wave indicates UA has achieved a "saturation threshold" that Russian AD (PVO) is struggling to manage without significant leakage.
- Governance: Focus on continuity. A Cabinet meeting scheduled for Jan 5 with First VP Svyrydenko (1807Z) targets ongoing industrial/economic reforms to support the long-term defense posture.
Information environment / disinformation
- "WWIII" and Distraction: The juxtaposition of massive drone strikes on Russia and "sensationalized" reports of Maduro in NYC is a classic reflexive control tactic. The goal is to frame UA's strategic strikes as part of a chaotic, US-led global escalation rather than a targeted defensive campaign.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued OWA-UAV incursions into Northern Ukraine (Chernihiv/Kyiv) to fix UA AD assets while RU ground forces attempt to capitalize on the "grey zone" entry in Lyman.
- MDCOA (Most Dangerous): RF "Center" Group successfully establishes a lodgment within the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast administrative border, forcing a significant redeployment of UA reserves from the Oskil river line.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- Dnipropetrovsk Border Crossing: Need geolocation of RU "Otvažnye" units to confirm if they have physically crossed into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast or are merely operating on the tactical approaches.
- RF "New Innovation": Prioritize SIGINT and EW monitoring to identify the "second innovation" hinted at by RU reconnaissance channels (Ref: 1809Z).
- Internet Restrictions (RU): Monitor Russian regional traffic for signs of "Plan Kovyor" style digital blackouts, which could mask significant troop movements or internal security operations.
IPB Framework Analysis
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield geometry is expanding. While the frontline remains largely stagnant in the south, the Eastern Axis is stretching toward the Dnipropetrovsk border. The "Deep Battle" has reached a new scale with UA launching over 250 UAVs in a single day-part.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
RF is undergoing a period of tactical introspection. Analytical channels (Rybar) are admitting the obsolescence of mechanized columns in the current attrition environment. This likely precedes a heavier reliance on the "infiltration" tactics seen in Lyman and Podoly. The threat of a "new innovation" (NgP RaZvedka) suggests technical adaptations in the EW or ISR domains are imminent.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
UA is successfully integrating interceptor drones into its AD network, providing a cost-effective solution for Shahed-type threats. Strategically, the leadership is signaling a transition to a "sustainable defense" model, reinforced by tomorrow's Cabinet-level focus on economic resilience.
4. COGNITIVE DOMAIN
The Russian information space is currently bifurcated: one half is focused on tactical warnings (internet shutdowns, drone threats), while the other is engaged in high-level geopolitical distractions (Maduro/NYC). This indicates a lack of a unified domestic narrative to counter the impact of UA's deep strikes.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
The next 12 hours will likely see a RU attempt to disrupt the UA "diplomatic week" through a high-visibility strike or a significant tactical push in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad sector. The entry of the "Center" Group into the Dnipropetrovsk border area is the primary operational risk.
//ANALYSIS ENDS//
